Preview, favourites, profile, route and predictions Il Lombardia 2025 - Is anyone capable of challenging Tadej Pogacar?

On the 11th of October the peloton takes on the final monument of the season: Il Lombardia. The Italian classic is the climbers' monument, the final of the season and one of the last big races of the year. The race is set to start at 10:55CET and finish at 16:45CET.

The race has been a cornerstone of the sport since its first edition in 1905. It quickly earned the title Giro di Lombardia and became affectionately referred to as the Classica delle foglie morte — the “Classic of the Falling Leaves.” Over the decades, the race has built a rich legacy. Legendary Italian riders Fausto Coppi and Alfredo Binda both left their mark here, with Coppi holding the all-time record of five victories. Eddy Merckx, Sean Kelly, and more recently Vincenzo Nibali have also conquered the demanding terrain of Lombardy. 

The 2024 edition of Il Lombardia was a showcase of dominance from Tadej Pogacar, who claimed his fourth consecutive win in breathtaking fashion - his fourth in a row. Remco Evenepoel and Giulio Ciccone completed the podium.  

The race will have 241 kilometers in length, a very difficult day on the bike where endurance is key, with its distance matching that of other monuments, only this race features quite a lot of high mountain that will take longer for the riders to go through. This year the race starts in Como and finishes in Bergamo, with the traditional finale in the Italian city after the beautiful ascent of Bergamo Alta.

The race opens up on rolling roads out of Como and will see the climbs of the Madonna del Ghisallo (the easy side) and Passo de Roncola early on, which will set the mood for the race. The ascent to Berbenno will add some more fatigue, but this first half of the race will only set fatigue into the riders and is very unlikely to have serious effect on the outcome of the race.

That begins on the climb to the Passo della Crossetta, where the race can explode. The climb is 11 kilometers long at 6% and ends with 76 kilometers to go. A hard climb, not brutal, but enough to make the difference. Only after the summit there is no true downhill.

The riders begin to climb to Zambla Alta which is around 10 kilometers long at 3%, but with several flat sections. It's a sequence of small climbs essentially, with the final 2.5 kilometers averaging 7%. This ascent ends with 53 kilometers to go and the descent is very technical, where the race can also break apart.

But what most riders will be looking towards is the ascent to Passo di Ganda. Again not a brutal climb, it's 9.2 kilometers long at 7.1%, but the final kilometers are the hardest and we do go into double-digit gradients. After 200 kilometers of racing this is a climb that can do more damage than it would initially seem.

However its summit does come with 40 kilometers to go still. In 2025 however and with the climbers that will be at the start, this should mean little however, as long solo attacks are now a regular occurrence and the race could well be decided here.

However if that's not the case, there are still a few flat kilometers into Bergamo and then the ascent to Bergamo Alta, 1.3 kilometers at 7.4% with some cobbles and narrow roads in the mix, an explosive tricky climb which ends with only 3 kilometers to go. The way into the finish line is almost fully downhill from there onwards, where if there is a group, a sprint finish seems inevitable.

Sun, 20 degrees and no real wind. You would expect good weather in this region, it's not by chance that it's a massive tourist attraction.

Tadej Pogacar - UAE is the team to beat. Will it be beaten? Realistically no. Tadej Pogacar is in great form and let's be real, there is no need to discuss tactics or anything, Pogacar attacks and in regular conditions he will go solo and take the win, it's what he does time and time again and this simply won't change. If Isaac del Toro commits to work for the World Champion then I virtually see no chance for any rival, but even if the team save Del Toro for a secondary top result, the likes of Adam Yates, Jay Vine, Rafal Majka and Jay Vine can certainly control any kind of race and scenario.

Remco Evenepoel - I will be honest, this is the only rider that even stands a chance of challenging Pogacar. I don't think anyone else in the race is thinking of victory and Evenepoel is the only rider who is willing and capable of risking it all to take the win. If it weren't for Pogacar, he would be a big favourite and would have an historic finale to the season, but he will likely have to settle for a podium result here. This one would be likely, he is in peak form and the climbs suit him well, whilst the endurance factor plays in his advantage too. Quick-Step don't have a luxurious team but have an in-form Gianmarco Garofoli and a medium-form Mikel Landa to help control things before the final climb if necessary.

Climbers - A few different strong groups here, one of which being Bahrain - Victorious who come full charge with Giro dell'Emilia podium finisher Lenny Martínez, in-form climber Afonso Eulálio and although we can't be certain of their level, Antonio Tiberi and Damiano Caruso can both play a role in this race.

The other big factor is BORA, coming in with Primoz Roglic, Jai Hindley and Giulio Pellizzari as potential leaders. I believe all three will be at around the same level and none will want to sacrifice their odds, but before the final climb if all three are there then we may see some attacks to try and seize the opportunity.

We have Paul Seixas, the 19-year old who's just finished the Europeans on the podium and could well surprise here once again - alongside Nicolas Prodhomme; Ben O'Connor, Davide Piganzoli, Tobias Johannessen, Oscar Onley, Egan Bernal, Richard Carapaz, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Javier Romo, Guillaume Martin and Michael Storer as men to add into the mix.

Puncheurs - For sure you could see some men up there. This is a climber's classic, let's not fool ourselves. But most top puncheurs nowadays are also very strong climbers, because it is simply a necessity to take the wins at World Tour level. Tom Pidcock is still on great form after a breakthrough Vuelta a España and continues to perform.

Ben Healy was third at the Worlds and showed at the Tour de France how good of a climber he can be, riders like him and Julian Alaphilippe, Toms Skujins or Tiesj Benoot are more likely to risk it in a breakaway or in the climb to Zambla Alta where their short-effort power can see them get a gap and then somewhat survive on the longer climbs. Christian Scaroni, fourth at the Europeans, was also incredibly impressive and is an interesting outsider for the podium if he has the same legs.

*** Tadej Pogacar
** Remco Evenepoel, Isaac del Toro
* Paul Seixas, Adam Yates, Primoz Roglic, Jai Hindley, Afonso Eulálio, Lenny Martínez, Ben O'Connor, Richard Carapaz, Egan Bernal, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Michael Storer, Tom Pidcock, Ben Healy, Christian Scaroni

Pick: Tadej Pogacar

How: Solo victory with an attack on Passo di Ganda.