"The unpredictability is its beauty" – Philippa York talks Vingegaard and Visma at the 2025 Vuelta a España

The 2025 Vuelta a España begins today, the final grand tour of the season, and once again all eyes are on the fight for the red jersey. Jonas Vingegaard starts as the outstanding favourite with Tadej Pogacar absent, but the Dane isn’t the only star in Spain, as the race includes the likes of Mads Pedersen, Jasper Philipsen, Tom Pidcock, João Almeida, Filippo Ganna, and Juan Ayuso. The race promises three weeks of drama across Spain, with decisive battles expected in the Pyrenees and a final showdown atop Bola del Mundo near Madrid. Philippa York has provided her full assessment of what lies ahead in Cycling News.

“The new, more explosive Jonas will be well suited to the steep ramps that the final Grand Tour of the season always serves up, but the mountain stages in the Pyrenees will reveal any cracks in his and everyone else's GC armoury. The battle for overall victory will then play out in week two and week three, hopefully lasting all the way until stage 20 atop Bola del Mundo near Madrid.”

York believes his versatility will be key: “As far as individual capabilities are concerned, the Dane has an edge on his direct Vuelta rivals when it comes to climbing and time trialling. He might even outsprint the other leaders if it comes down to a tough finish. His two Tour de France victories and his fights with Tadej Pogačar put Vingegaard a level above everyone, but the absence of Pogačar will not make victory and the next three weeks of racing a formality. It won’t be for a number of reasons.”

York also stressed the race’s unpredictable nature. “There’s also bound to be some new, or even renewed, GC talents who came into the race with few mentions. The Vuelta is the third Grand Tour of the season, when riders are tired, about to change teams or looking to save their careers. Its unpredictability is its beauty. The main prediction topic, at least pre-race, is a familiar one: Visma-Lease a Bike will again be pitted against UAE Team Emirates-XRG in a battle for overall victory and Grand Tour bragging rights.”

UAE’s internal dynamics are also in the spotlight. “Over at UAE, when Tadej Pogačar is not present then individual ambitions can quickly become apparent and cause tension,” York explained.

“There’s been lots of press concerning the relationship between Ayuso and Almeida ever since the arm waving and heated words on the slopes of the Galibier in the 2024 Tour. UAE try to spin a united line, with no rivalry, but the differences in temperament and riding style suggest their co-existence is a difficult situation to manage. This will be the first time this season Almeida and Ayuso have raced together, and I don’t think that is entirely a coincidence. Keeping them apart seems to have been deliberate. In person and on paper.”

She continued, “The Spaniard lines up wearing number one and Almeida is at the other end of the list with number eight. Maybe that’s a random occurrence, and sure it’s Ayuso’s home Tour but João is ahead of him not only alphabetically and in the UCI rankings. Egos and ambitions need careful massaging at this level and this is the kind of detail that some riders notice.

“It will also have come to Almeida’s attention that back in May, at the Giro, his co-leader wasn’t exactly the stellar teammate to Issac del Toro when he needed assistance. For someone like the Portuguese rider, who always fulfils his support duties, any hint of selfishness is going to have him gnashing his teeth. I can’t see them getting through the Vuelta without incident.”