ANALYSIS - The 5 riders who will fight for the final spot on the podium at the 2026 Tour de France

The 2026 Tour de France is about to start and anticipation is sky-high. The Grand Départ will take place on July 4th in Barcelona, in an edition set to be one of the most closely fought and spectacular in recent times. As has been the case since their rivalry began in 2021, Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard line up as the two big favourites for the overall classification. But who will join them on the podium?

The level both have shown in recent years places them a step above the rest of the peloton, so any other outcome in the Tour would be a major surprise.

That shifts much of the race’s intrigue to the fight for the third step of the podium. Many riders arrive with credentials to dream of a big result in Paris. The debut of French phenomenon Paul Seixas, the ambition of Remco Evenepoel, the rise of Isaac del Toro, the talent of Juan Ayuso, or the excellent form of Florian Lipowitz make this battle one of the key attractions of the Grande Boucle.

There are also other compelling candidates such as Tom Pidcock, Mattias Skjelmose, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Movistar Team’s leader, Lenny Martínez, or Tobias Johannessen. Who are the five leading contenders to join Pogacar and Vingegaard on the Tour de France podium?

If there is one rider seemingly destined for that third step of the podium, it is Remco Evenepoel. It is true there are still doubts about his performance over three weeks against the world’s best pure climbers, but it is also true that he has rarely prepared a race as meticulously as this Tour de France.

His move to Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe had a clear objective: build a Tour-winning project. The Belgian arrives with targeted preparation and a team assembled to support him in the mountains.

Time trialing remains one of his major weapons. Although the route is not especially heavy on kilometres against the clock, Evenepoel generally starts with an edge over most of his direct rivals.

His season also backs his case. He won the Amstel Gold Race and also took two high-prestige podiums at the Tour of Flanders and Liège–Bastogne–Liège. Add to that the fact he already knows what it takes to win a Grand Tour after conquering the Vuelta a España, an experience that always counts at this level.

At just 19, Paul Seixas has become the breakout sensation of world cycling. The Frenchman will make his Grand Tour debut in 2026, a huge challenge for any rider, but he does so on the back of an absolutely spectacular first half of the season.

The young Decathlon CMA CGM leader has already shown he can race toe-to-toe with the best in the world. He won the overall at Itzulia, adding three stage victories, and then triumphed at La Flèche Wallonne.

His most striking performance came at Liège–Bastogne–Liège. There, he was the only rider able to respond to Tadej Pogacar’s attack on La Redoute before finishing second, only behind the Slovenian.

It is true he arrives at the Tour after abandoning the Tour Auvergne Rhône-Alpes due to a crash, and experience could count against him across three weeks of racing. However, the talent he has shown suggests he can fight with anyone.

France has been waiting more than four decades for a Tour winner and the country’s hopes rest on a rider who looks destined to mark an era.

Florian Lipowitz may make less noise than other top favourites, but that does not diminish his chances. In fact, the German already knows what it means to stand on the Tour de France podium after achieving it last season.

His growth in recent months has been steady and his results speak for themselves. Before the Tour he won the Tour of Slovenia, where he also took two stages. Previously he finished second at the Tour de Romandie, beaten only by Tadej Pogacar.

He was also second at Itzulia, only behind Paul Seixas, and third at the Volta a Catalunya, where only Jonas Vingegaard and another rider finished ahead of him.

Red Bull also enjoy the luxury of two leaders at the highest level. That could make Lipowitz an even greater threat, as most of the pressure will fall primarily on Evenepoel.

Juan Ayuso’s season has shown two very different faces. The first was brilliant. The second was shaped by bad luck.

The Spaniard debuted with Lidl-Trek at an extraordinary level. He won the overall at the Volta ao Algarve, beating Paul Seixas and proving he could aim high across the season.

Then came the problems. At Paris–Nice he crashed while wearing the yellow jersey and even riding ahead of Jonas Vingegaard. That forced him to abandon and also affected his subsequent Itzulia, where he could not finish either.

However, once recovered he showed a strong image again at the Tour Auvergne–Rhône–Alpes, where he climbed onto the overall podium. Lidl-Trek will head to the Tour with a very strong unit around him, and Ayuso will have everything he needs to chase the best result of his career at the Grande Boucle.

Perhaps Isaac del Toro should sit even higher on any list of favorites. The issue is that his role within UAE Team Emirates XRG will be very different to the rest of the Top 5.

The Mexican will arrive at the Tour as Tadej Pogacar’s chief domestique. That means much of his effort will go into hardening the race and launching the Slovenian’s attacks on the mountain stages. Even so, his quality is so high that ruling him out of the podium fight is impossible.

His season has been outstanding. He won the UAE Tour with two stages, also conquered Tirreno–Adriatico, finished third at Strade Bianche, and comes in after winning the Tour Auvergne–Rhône–Alpes.

There are very recent precedents showing a domestique can finish among the best in the general classification. In the 2024 Tour de France, Mikel Landa placed fifth while working for Remco Evenepoel.

Isaac del Toro also arrives in one of the best form periods of his career. If race circumstances allow him to save energy at key moments, he has more than enough level to accompany Pogacar and Vingegaard among the best in Paris.