Tadej Pogacar vs Jonas Vingegaard - Who will win a third Tour de France?

The duel between Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard in the Tour de France is destined to be one of the best in the history of cycling and one of the best in the history of sport. Only 25 and 27 years old respectively, it is likely that in the end we will talk about the two of them like we talk about Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi; Magic Johnson and Larry Bird; Karpov and Kasparov; Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic...

As analyzed by CiclismoAlDia's Victor Gonzalez, between the two of them, they have shared the last four editions of the French race. In addition, in the last three seasons, they have finished first and second. The Slovenian won in 2020 and 2021, while the Dane won in 2022 and 2023. Everything indicates that this year will be a battle to see who takes his third Tour de France, with the likes of Remco Evenepoel and Primoz Roglic always ready to take the spotlight.

Both UAE Team Emirates and Team Visma - Lease a Bike are the two best teams in the world for grand tours, and also have the best specialists for this race. They have the best climbers, they hold their own in the three weeks and do more than hold their own in the time trials, performing on a par with the specialists in the discipline.

In history, only 8 riders have won the Tour de France three or more times (there were 9 before Lance Armstrong's suspension). Pogacar or Vingegaard could join a club that already boasts legends such as Jacques Anquetil, Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault, Miguel Induráin, Chris Froome, Philippe Thys, Louison Bobet and Greg LeMond.

Tadej Pogacar vs Jonas Vingegaard - Who will win a third Tour de France?
Before crashing at Itzulia Basque Country, Jonas Vingegaard has dominated O Gran Camiño and Tirreno-Adriatico. @Sirotti

But with their age, there is absolutely no reason why they would stop there, and the record of five shared by the first four names mentioned above is in serious dange. Roglic is already 34 years old and logic says that he is past his prime.

Evenepoel is still 24 years old but he's not as strong of a Grand Tour rider, taking into consideration his past results, he's more of an elite time trialist who does more than well in the high mountains but finds it difficult when it comes to taking on the likes of Vingegaard and Pogacar.

And of the younger ones, it remains to be seen how far they can go but right now they are far away. Juan Ayuso (21 years old), Carlos Rodríguez (23), Isaac del Toro (20), Cian Uijtdebroeks (21), added to others who are still a step below them plus those who may continue to emerge in the future, have great potential but it seems difficult to think that they can reach the level of the two current big names.

Both are already in the history of the Tour but in this 2024 edition we will see who will write one more line to his legend in the race. Vingegaard arrives with a lot of doubts after his horrible crash in the Itzulia that has prevented him from doing his preparation as planned and racing before the start on June 29 in Florence. A bit like Pogacar last year, when he went down in Liège-Bastogne-Liège and paid for it by suffering badly on a high mountain stage in the third week of the race.

For his part, Pogi is coming off a stratospheric first half of the season. He has won almost everything he has competed in: Has completely swept Strade Bianche and Liège-Bastogne-Liège, adding a sixth monument to his list of achievements, has dominated the Volta a Catalunya with four stage wins and has made one of the best individual performances in the history of the Giro d'Italia, with 6 victories and taking almost 10 minutes off his closest rival in the final general classification.

Tadej Pogacar vs Jonas Vingegaard - Who will win a third Tour de France?
Tadej Pogacar has dominated the 2024 Giro d'Italia. @Sirotti

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