"He’ll struggle on Sunday – If you’re not fresh, you’re finished" - Tadej Pogacar's Rainbow Jersey dream at serious risk according to Belgian team doctor

Tadej Pogacar’s quest to defend his Rainbow Jersey could already be in jeopardy before Sunday’s decisive road race in Kigali. That’s the stark assessment of Belgian national team doctor Kris Van der Mieren, who believes that fatigue – compounded by Rwanda’s unique mix of altitude and heat – will brutally expose anyone lacking freshness.

Evenepoel’s dominant victory in Thursday’s time trial, where he claimed a third successive world title, set the tone for what may follow. The Belgian was in a class of his own, catching Pogacar on the road and putting nearly three minutes into him by the finish. While Jay Vine and Ilan Van Wilder completed the podium, Pogacar was left to settle for fourth, missing out on the medals by a single second to Van Wilder.

For Van der Mieren, the key lies in Kigali’s constant elevation. Unlike the Tour de France, where altitude is encountered for only a few hours at a time, riders in Rwanda are racing every kilometre at 1,400–1,500 metres. “If you’re not fresh here, you’re finished,” he warned in his analysis for Sporza. “You’ll feel the noose tighten very quickly. Being off your best is punished tenfold here. If you’re not fresh, you have zero chance.”

That warning comes with direct relevance to Pogacar. The Slovenian admitted post-Tour that he was carrying fatigue, fell ill before the Canadian races, and then subjected himself to long-haul travel in pursuit of racing days. “Maybe the jet lag is still in his body,” Van der Mieren suggested. “If that clears in a week, it could be in his favour. But if not, then I think he’ll struggle on Sunday against a super Remco Evenepoel.”

Van Wilder’s bronze medal provided a surprise but, to Van der Mieren, it was entirely consistent with his physiology. Some riders, they argue, simply process altitude stress better than others. “Ilan is one of the lucky ones,” said the doctor. “He loses less power at 1,500 metres.”

Van der Mieren broke down the science in simple terms: the body has three ‘engines’ – fat burning, aerobic sugar burning, and the anaerobic system, which runs without oxygen. At altitude, with less oxygen available, riders rely more heavily on the third. But doing so effectively requires both genetic predisposition and a fully rested body. “A tired body cannot sustain large anaerobic efforts,” he explained.

That, in his view, is where Pogacar may have faltered. Even a rider with one of the sport’s largest ‘motors’ cracked under the Rwandan conditions, while Evenepoel’s physiology and freshness allowed him to dominate.

Sunday’s road race is expected to be no less punishing. Temperatures around 27 degrees may not sound extreme, but combined with Kigali’s altitude, they could magnify fatigue. Van der Mieren believes the difference could amount to “five to ten percent” of performance – more than enough to decide who survives and who falters.

With Evenepoel arriving on peak form, Belgium’s chances look golden. For Pogacar, the margins appear unforgiving. If his body has not yet shed the accumulated strain of a long season, Van der Mieren’s verdict could prove prophetic: the rainbow jersey may be beyond reach.