"He’ll struggle on Sunday – If you’re not fresh, you’re finished" - Tadej Pogacar's Rainbow Jersey dream at serious risk according to Belgian team doctor
Cycling
Tadej Pogacar’s quest to defend his Rainbow Jersey could already be in jeopardy before Sunday’s decisive road race in Kigali. That’s the stark assessment of Belgian national team doctor Kris Van der Mieren, who believes that fatigue – compounded by Rwanda’s unique mix of altitude and heat – will brutally expose anyone lacking freshness.
Evenepoel’s dominant victory in Thursday’s time trial, where he claimed a third successive world title, set the tone for what may follow. The Belgian was in a class of his own, catching Pogacar on the road and putting nearly three minutes into him by the finish. While Jay Vine and Ilan Van Wilder completed the podium, Pogacar was left to settle for fourth, missing out on the medals by a single second to Van Wilder.
For Van der Mieren, the key lies in Kigali’s constant elevation. Unlike the Tour de France, where altitude is encountered for only a few hours at a time, riders in Rwanda are racing every kilometre at 1,400–1,500 metres. “If you’re not fresh here, you’re finished,” he warned in his analysis for Sporza. “You’ll feel the noose tighten very quickly. Being off your best is punished tenfold here. If you’re not fresh, you have zero chance.”
That warning comes with direct relevance to Pogacar. The Slovenian admitted post-Tour that he was carrying fatigue, fell ill before the Canadian races, and then subjected himself to long-haul travel in pursuit of racing days. “Maybe the jet lag is still in his body,” Van der Mieren suggested. “If that clears in a week, it could be in his favour. But if not, then I think he’ll struggle on Sunday against a super Remco Evenepoel.”
Why Van Wilder thrived, and Pogacar cracked
Van Wilder’s bronze medal provided a surprise but, to Van der Mieren, it was entirely consistent with his physiology. Some riders, they argue, simply process altitude stress better than others. “Ilan is one of the lucky ones,” said the doctor. “He loses less power at 1,500 metres.”
Van der Mieren broke down the science in simple terms: the body has three ‘engines’ – fat burning, aerobic sugar burning, and the anaerobic system, which runs without oxygen. At altitude, with less oxygen available, riders rely more heavily on the third. But doing so effectively requires both genetic predisposition and a fully rested body. “A tired body cannot sustain large anaerobic efforts,” he explained.
That, in his view, is where Pogacar may have faltered. Even a rider with one of the sport’s largest ‘motors’ cracked under the Rwandan conditions, while Evenepoel’s physiology and freshness allowed him to dominate.
The final podium of the Kigali Worlds TT
The road race forecast
Sunday’s road race is expected to be no less punishing. Temperatures around 27 degrees may not sound extreme, but combined with Kigali’s altitude, they could magnify fatigue. Van der Mieren believes the difference could amount to “five to ten percent” of performance – more than enough to decide who survives and who falters.
With Evenepoel arriving on peak form, Belgium’s chances look golden. For Pogacar, the margins appear unforgiving. If his body has not yet shed the accumulated strain of a long season, Van der Mieren’s verdict could prove prophetic: the rainbow jersey may be beyond reach.
Kieran WoodDeputy Editor-in-Chief
Kieran Wood is a sports journalist based in Wales and has been active in journalism since 2022. He regularly contributes to DartsNews.com and CyclingUpToDate.com, where he covers professional cycling and darts. In cycling, his work includes liveblogs from major races, including the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and La Vuelta a España, alongside race reports and analysis. He has also conducted interviews with professional riders.
His reporting spans the full racing calendar, from one-day classics to stage races, with a focus on accurate, real-time coverage and clear contextual analysis. For statistics, results, and historical context, he regularly uses resources such as ProCyclingStats. To support reporting on rider activity and training context where relevant, he also references Strava.
In his work, Kieran places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles as new, verified information becomes available.
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- I get the point totally. We live in the snowflake society where some riders forget they are getting paid to ride and get results. When they have a few issues they try to look outside of the real issue instead of themselves. It odd so many of the team are making no complaints and getting on with their job. If you do not like what you do find another job simples. Tough love as my mum would say.paultryan200207-11-2026
- many people advise him to grow slowly and rather do giro and/or vuelta instead of tdf. but i can totally understand that he is not satisfied with taking over once pogi declines, but instead beat him in his prime. so if he goes for tdf again, i‘m all for it. let‘s hope that pogi recovers soon!Ketterechts07-11-2026
- So gracious to offer something no-one would be prepared to pay for. The Giro is not the Tour and doesn’t command the same interest or attract the same “elite” (those willing to pay to be a part of something they consider has ego boosting potential). Roadside viewing will always largely remain free for everyone outside circuits. Introduction of a symbolic entrance to mountain climbs is worthy of exploration. Asking 1-2€ isn’t going to repulse real fans (most will spend 50-100€ on their outing that day all things included) but will prevent a portion of the total knobhead thrillseekers who will join in any large gathering as long as it’s free, just because they’re attracted to crowds, without which it it difficult for them to work up their anti-social behaviour.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- How is radio going to help when someone went over a cliff or bridge or off the roadside into a forest unnoticed and is laying there unconscious?Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- Yep, next we’ll be accusing F1 drivers of avoiding Le Mans.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- But on what is that opinion based? Are you holding him to a different standard than others? Are you saying he should do learn to like something he doesn’t Are you saying he hasn’t achieved enough Are you saying he pretends to be better than his results? It’s actually a really strange opinion to oust if you consider it objectively or rationally. Try applying it to others or yourself by asking if not EVERYONE should then be doing more? Nobody in athletics or swimming gets criticism for not expanding their repertoire when a rival or someone else does. In fact, most who move to another event get accused of running from their rival. Opinions are boring, the reasons behind them are what count.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- for a medical chief to throw things like is just bad. There are already radios which were banned for spectacle. allow radios. Gps trackers are not a complete solutionabstractengineer07-11-2026
- Yeah man...PogiSloFans07-11-2026
- any rider less than 25 whether they are really ready for the position of leadership of GT is probably not the case. I think Pogi himself suffered when he was defeated by Jonas in the TDF twice. But that would be the team's job to ensure support so that they can bounce back. It requires a team and time to get back up and win after getting knocked down.abstractengineer07-11-2026
- I'm very glad he got the big late Quickstep Vuelta win and I hope he has a few left for Euskaltel-Euskadi.flyer07-11-2026
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