Paris-Nice 2026 preview, profiles, favourites & predictions - Jonas Vingegaard versus Juan Ayuso on explosive route

Paris-Nice 2026 already has its route. The organizers unveiled the course for the 84th Race to the Sun on Wednesday in Versailles, starting on Sunday, March 8th 2026 in Achères and finishing a week later in Nice. It’s a varied edition: chances for sprinters, wind-exposed days, a team time trial, punchy finales, and high-mountain stages.

Achères debuts as the start town, becoming the 30th locality in the Yvelines department to host the race. Day one should spark early action with a finishing circuit in Carrières-sous-Poissy, where the Côte de Chanteloup-les-Vignes could cause the first splits. Stage 2, from Épône to Montargis, crosses the Gâtinais plains, a setting suited both to echelons and a bunch sprint.

The third day is reserved for the team time trial between Cosne-Cours-sur-Loire and Pouilly-sur-Loire, a benchmark for squads with general classification ambitions. From there, the race heads into the Morvan, with the climb to Uchon set to judge the stage and potentially reshape the standings.

The second half ramps up in difficulty. Stage 5, the longest with the most elevation gain, will take the peloton to Colombier-le-Vieux and inflict notable wear. The next day, the finish in Apt promises excitement, with a decisive ascent inside the final five kilometres.

The finale in Nice takes an unusual shape due to municipal elections. On Saturday, 14.03.2026, Stage 7 will roll out from the Promenade des Anglais towards Auron. On Sunday, the race concludes with a finishing circuit around the Riviera stadium, exploring new climbs and featuring the demanding Côte du Linguador as the key point to decide the winner.

On the sporting front, Matteo Jorgenson’s successor will be crowned on an unprecedented route. Among the favourites for the overall are Jonas Vingegaard, João Almeida, Juan Ayuso, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Mattias Skjelmose, as well as the Frenchmen Kevin Vauquelin, Lenny Martinez and David Gaudu. For the stages, riders such as Mads Pedersen, Olav Kooij and Michael Matthews stand out as references.

Paris–Nice 2026 will start with 22 teams. The 18 WorldTeams will be joined by the top three ProTeams in the 2025 UCI ranking — Cofidis, Pinarello–Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team and Tudor Pro Cycling Team — plus invited squad TotalEnergies. A mix that guarantees depth and variety in a week that once again sets the tone for the European season.

The race begins, as usual, with a stage that is designed for the sprinters but with traps on the way and a slightly hilly circuit finish. The race begins in Achères and the opening day has 171 kilometers to be tackled, most of them flat.

The final half of the stage features a few small yet sharp climbs, where we may see attacks. There is going to be a loop around the town of Carrieres-sous-Poissy where the stage ends. The Côte de Chanteloup-les-Vignes is 1.1 kilometers long at over 8% and will summit with only 11 kilometers to go, providing an opportunity for attacks; as is the case with the following plateau kilometers.

An open finale, but one where it is still difficult to maintain the differences created. The final kilometers are flat and not technical, meaning it is not overly difficult to bring it back to a sprint, even if not with the entire peloton.

The second day of racing is more suited to the sprinters in fact, a day where there are no real obstacles on the way of the riders. The riders begin on the outskirts of Paris and ride towards the southeast, the first big transition stage where the wind may cause some damage.

However if this is not the case, then there is nothing to prevent a bunch sprint from taking place in Montargis. The entrance into town is relatively technical so expect a lot of tension and early fight for positioning; a day which can at worst spell the end of the race for the riders if they do not tackle the finale safely.

Perhaps the most important day of the race when it comes to the overall classification. With the Tour de France having a team time trial in its opening stage this year, it doesn't come as a big surprise that the French race will have its own; only in this case, it can be much more important. s

With the race lacking high mountain stages, and with this stage coming before the first of the truly hilly days, it can create key differences in the GC. The course from Cosne-Cours-sur-Loire and Pouilly-sur-Loire is 23.5 kilometers long.

But aside from that, it is a TTT that also features two small ascents and also a slight downhill section in the final kilometers. It is certainly not an easy TTT to gauge, as it is key to go as fast as possible in the uphill sections, but the final kilometers benefit the teams that carry the most riders into the finale. 23 kilometers is enough terrain to create gaps of up to a minute between the top teams and those who are minimizing losses.

The riders arrive to the hills, a traditional sight at Paris-Nice. However on stage 4, the rugged terrain only becomes part of the day in its final third. It's not overly hard, but instead an interesting finale where climbers and classics riders can mix it up together.

A penultimate climb of 4.7 kilometers at 5.3% is going to be tackled with 23 kilometers to go, however, as is the case with the final climb, it features ramps that are significantly more steep, and its not a consistent climb.

However most efforts will be saved towards the summit finish into Uchon. The climb in total is 8 kilometers long at 4.5%, but this average hides very important details. The riders will all be saving their legs towards the final 1.8 kilometers where the gradients average over 10%. It is an explosive finale and here we can see important gaps being formed, with slipstreaming meaning very little in such a steep road.

The fifth day of racing follows a similar formula to the previous one, however with a much more rugged first two thirds, with plenty small climbs in which a lot can happen, and a strong breakaway can with certainty be formed.

The 205-kilometer long route will also see endurance become an important factor, but the combination of final climbs is going to be the key for the stage. 3.9Km at 6.8% (33.5Km to go); 2.2Km at 10.5% (20Km to go); 3.2Km at 7.5% (9Km to go) will warm things up. Its a combination of climbs where a lot can happen; from a hard pace, to all-out GC attacks, even to potential tactical play alongside riders from the breakaway.

It is a finale designed to break things apart, before a slight uphill finish into Colombier-le-Vieux, which is 4.6 kilometers long at 3.5% - an appropriate finale for the stage where the descents are technical, and where the riders do go uphill, but the gradients mean it can still be quite tactical.

The sixth day of racing is another day for the puncheurs, sprinters, climbers and breakaway specialists all to fight for their honour, before the race makes it to Nice. With two small climbs early in the day, there are high chances of a strong breakaway consisting of classics specialists being formed.

Late in the day there are three climbs, but they are not overly hard. The first is 7.2Km at 4.3% and ends with 34.5Km to go; the second has an intermediate sprint at the top and averages 5% over 2.7 kilometers at 16 kilometers to go...

The final one is 4.1Km long at 5% and ends with a mere 4.5 kilometers to go. The climb is not overly hard, but any gap can mean victory because the run-in into Apt is almost fully downhill; very fast until the technical flat final kilometer leads to the finish line.

Stage 7 could be called the queen stage, but it is not as simple as that. Last year the peloton had a stage finishing in Auron, but it didn't prove to be a meaningful challenge for the overall classification. Whereas the race typically features a high mountain stage; this time around this is considered the toughest of them all.

However the stage is short, having only 138 kilometers on the menu out from Nice, with two categorized climbs in the opening kilometers. Most of the day then is flat. Now surely, the riders go up from 150 to 1100 meters of altitude up to the base of the climb to Auron, which isn't pan-flat, but unless the pace is seriously pushed, it's not terrain that will make for very fatiguing racing - mostly because the stage is also short.

The final climb is 7.4 kilometers long at 7%, enough terrain to make some differences, but nothing overly dramatic as such a climb will be tackled at over 25Km/h; and at speeds where slipstreaming matters. It is a climb where the pure climbers may struggle to make the difference against the more explosive riders, but it will nevertheless be important for the overall classification.

The final stage of the race starts and finishes in Nice, but it is not the traditional course that features several climbs and then the Col d'Èze. The format is quite similar, but the climbs not as difficult. The opening kilometers of the stage are also flat; and then slowly the peloton rises to the base of the Col du la Porte.

The 6.9-kilometer long climb averages 7% and summits with 79 kilometers to go, however it is the hardest of the day. The roller-coaster terrain sees the riders take on a very long descent and then immediately fter the Côte de Chateauneuf which is 6.7 kilometers long at 6.4%, ending with 46 kilometers to go. The small ascent to the Col du Aspremont follows; and then the new addition to the course.

The Côte de Linguador is a new face on the Paris-Nice route, 3.3 kilometers long at 8.2%. Not brutal, but certainly it can for sure create differences, specially if the day is attacked hard. The climb ends with 18.5 kilometers to go and the short descent is extremely technical, which can turn the race around in itself.

The final 13 kilometers are mostly flat, with the exception of a small rise with 7.5 kilometers to go where there is an intermediate sprint and a small climb where we may see some action. However, the race will not head into the city center this time around; and instead finish outside of it, with the final kilometers being flat and allowing for some sort of sprint to still decide the stage if there is collaboration between groups.

Jonas Vingegaard - The main favourite? By name yes, but in reality not quite. It is a shared one, because the route in fact lacks the terrain where the Dane performs best in. There are no high mountains or actual long climbs where he can make the difference, and so he will have to rely on Visma pulling off a stellar TTT to be able to win the overall. The team does tick that box as well though, but Vingegaard will need good form in what is his first race of the season.

Juan Ayuso - With Mathias Vacek as a super domestique and also Jakob Söderqvist to pull for the team in the TTT, Ayuso can benefit from a very strong support away from the mountains. I think Lidl-Trek will be able to support the Spaniard quite well, and that it will be up to him to match or be better than Vingegaard in the most difficult days. What Ayuso showed in March last year may be enough to win the overall here, but he has to pull off the consistency in a race where the wind, rain and crashes often have a strong effect on. At the Algarve however, his form looked spotless as he defeated Paul Seixas and João Almeida.

UAE was meant to have João Almeida at the start as a contender for victory, but illness threw him out of the mix. UAE is still starting with its main block and it consists of several riders who should get the freedom to chase their own results: Brandon McNulty, Pavel Sivakov and Marc Soler - three men who can all fight for the podium or be out of GC fully depending on how their form is.

A few teams are specially strong such as INEOS who have a very complete block and have both Kévin Vauquelin and a resurging Carlos Rodríguez to race in the difficult stages; I believe they can indeed do some damage and do well in what is essentially a 'home' race for th team. Much like UAE, BORA have the inconsistent yet impressive-in-February duo of Daniel Martínez and Aleksandr Vlasov who can both do very well if they manage to find their best legs again here. On a smaller level, although favoured by the easier route; Movistar may be in the big GC fight as well with Iván Romeo and Pablo Castrillo, two similar riders who are often linked together with good effect.

Astana's Harold Tejada is certainly an important rider to watch after his fourth place at the UAE Tour, he cannot just be treated as a potential Top10 rider; We also have Valentin Paret-Peintre in the lead of Quick-Step; Nicolas Prodhomme for Decathlon CMA CGM Team and David Gaudu for Groupama - FDJ.

When it comes to other top riders we've also got a few important figures present such as Biniam Girmay and Milan Fretin for the bunch sprints; time trialists such as Joshua Tarling, Jakob Söderqvist, Edoardo Affini and Daan Hoole; and classics specialists such as Nils Politt, Kasper Asgreen, Sam Watson, Jasper Stuyven, Matteo Trentin and more.

*** Jonas Vingegaard, Juan Ayuso
** Brandon McNulty, Carlos Rodríguez, Daniel Martínez
* Mathias Vacek, Iván Romeo, Pavel Sivakov, Kévin Vauquelin, Lenny Martínez, Aleksandr Vlasov, Harold Tejada, Valentin Paret-Peintre

Pick: Juan Ayuso