Giro d'Italia 2026 stage 16 preview, profiles, favourites & predictions - Brutal summit finish another testing ground for Jonas Vingegaard

The 2026 Giro d'Italia will take place from the 8th to the 31st of May. It is the first Grand Tour of the season, and there are 21 stages that will take the riders through many of Italy's iconic cities, the mythical Alps, and many treacherous stages - each one can end the climber's chances of winning. We preview stage 16, which is expected to start and finish at 13:30 and 16:45CET.

The stage that takes place fully within Switzerland - the small Italian-speaking portion of it. Road work forced the organizers to change the stage's original format, and instead we have a very odd mountain stage as a result.

But different means that there is a land of opportunity. The first day of the final week of racing sees a flat start and then a hilly circuit with two climbs present. One is 4.7Km long at 5.6% and the other 3 kilometers long at 8.3%.

We can see the breakaway form here, as the stage is very short at a mere 113 kilometers in distance, or we can see some teams impose a strong pace right away in order to prepare attacks on the final climb to Carí.

Both climbs will be tackled twice; the last of which with 48 kilometers to go. A short descent will follow, before the riders change valleys. The final climb will be preceded by quite a lot of false-flat uphill kilometers, which mean the riders can enter the final climb already with quite some fatigue. There is a Red Bull Kilometer right before the base of the climb, which is then 11.6 kilometers long.

it's a hard climb, another Alpe d'Huez lookalike, with 19 hairpins. The climb is almost 12 kilometers long averaging 8% and it is just steep, right from the base to the summit in the ski resort. The final kilometer averages 10%, pointing towards an effort that has to be measured perfectly, as riders can explode and lose massive amounts of time in the finale.

Visma don't necessarily need to control the stage and go grab another win with Jonas Vingegaard, but they might - for the sake of racing the way they want and not let other teams take initiative. With a mere 113 kilometers to race and a flat start, there simply isn't any terrain for a breakaway to gain meaningful ground if Visma actually want to control the peloton. They might, Jonas Vingegaard has a very likely win in case they manage to reel in the escapees, taking into consideration what we've seen so far this race.

The GC fight will wait until the final climb here, don't expect anything big until then. The fight for the podium will usually see the Visma riders leading up the climb and then an internal battle in the final kilometers. But the climb is quite steep so it's not terrain for a tactical race, but instead everyone riding at their pace.

Felix Gall should be able to extend his lead on his rivals whilst we shall see if Jai Hindley and Giulio Pellizzari can distance Thymen Arensman once again. If so, we've got a serious fight for the final podium; whilst Afonso Eulálio is expected to drop from it tomorrow.

In case a breakaway succeeds don't expect surprise names, but instead most of the men who've been on the attack before. GC outsiders are less likely to attack here unless the breakaway only goes on the climbs themselves, as its a risk-reward ratio that doesn't favour them much this time around.

Giulio Ciccone is the man to watch, but will need a strong group to go along with him. We should see Movistar go big once again and have Einer Rubio and Enric Mas as cards. Igor Arrieta, Johannes Kulset, Wout Poels, Aleksandr Vlasov and Jan Christen are the other obvious outsiders.

*** Jonas Vingegaard, Giulio Ciccone

** Felix Gall, Einer Rubio, Wout Poels

* Jai Hindley, Thymen Arensman, Michael Storer, Giulio Pellizzari, Enric Mas, Igor Arrieta, Jan Hirt, David de la Cruz, Chris Harper, Damiano Caruso

Pick: Jonas Vingegaard

How: Visma to somewhat control the stage and still deliver another win.