Giro d'Italia 2026 stage 16 preview, profiles, favourites & predictions - Brutal summit finish another testing ground for Jonas Vingegaard
Cycling
The 2026 Giro d'Italia will take place from the 8th to the 31st of May. It is the first Grand Tour of the season, and 21 stages will take the riders through many of Italy's iconic cities, the mythical Alps, and many treacherous stages - each one can end the climber's chances of winning. We preview stage 16, which is expected to start at 13:30 and finish at 16:45 CET.
Profile Stage 16: Bellinzona - Cari
Stage 16: Bellinzona - Cari, 113 kilometers
The stage that takes place fully within Switzerland, the small Italian-speaking portion of it. Road work forced the organizers to change the stage's original format, resulting in a very odd mountain stage.
But different means that there is a land of opportunity. The first day of the final week of racing sees a flat start and then a hilly circuit with two climbs. One is 4.7Km long at 5.6%, and the other is 3 kilometers long at 8.3%.
Read also
We can see the breakaway form here, as the stage is very short at a mere 113 kilometers in distance, or we can see some teams impose a strong pace right away in order to prepare attacks on the final climb to Carí.
Both climbs will be tackled twice, the last of which is with 48 kilometers to go. A short descent will follow, before the riders change valleys. The final climb will be preceded by quite a lot of false-flat uphill kilometers, which means the riders can enter the final climb already with quite some fatigue. There is a Red Bull Kilometer right before the base of the climb, which is then 11.6 kilometers long.
it's a hard climb, another Alpe d'Huez lookalike, with 19 hairpins. The climb is almost 12 kilometers long, averaging 8% and it is just steep, right from the base to the summit in the ski resort. The final kilometer averages 10%, pointing towards an effort that has to be measured perfectly, as riders can explode and lose massive amounts of time in the finale.
Carì climb map stage 16 Giro d'Italia 2026
The Favourites
Visma doesn't necessarily need to control the stage and go grab another win with Jonas Vingegaard, but they might - for the sake of racing the way they want and not let other teams take initiative. With a mere 113 kilometers to race and a flat start, there simply isn't any terrain for a breakaway to gain meaningful ground if Visma actually wants to control the peloton. They might. Jonas Vingegaard has a very likely win in case they manage to reel in the escapees, taking into consideration what we've seen so far this race.
The GC fight will wait until the final climb here; don't expect anything big until then. The fight for the podium will usually see the Visma riders leading up the climb and then an internal battle in the final kilometers. But the climb is quite steep, so it's not terrain for a tactical race, but instead everyone rides at their own pace.
Felix Gall should be able to extend his lead on his rivals, whilst we shall see if Jai Hindley and Giulio Pellizzari can distance Thymen Arensman once again. If so, we've got a serious fight for the final podium, whilst Afonso Eulálio is expected to drop from it tomorrow.
In case a breakaway succeeds, don't expect surprise names, but instead most of the men who've been on the attack before. GC outsiders are less likely to attack here unless the breakaway only goes on the climbs themselves, as it's a risk-reward ratio that doesn't favour them much this time around.
Giulio Ciccone is the man to watch, but will need a strong group to go along with him. We should see Movistar go big once again and have Einer Rubio and Enric Mas as cards. Igor Arrieta, Johannes Kulset, Wout Poels, Aleksandr Vlasov and Jan Christen are the other obvious outsiders.
Read also
Prediction Giro d'Italia 2026 stage 16:
*** Jonas Vingegaard, Giulio Ciccone
** Felix Gall, Einer Rubio, Wout Poels
* Jai Hindley, Thymen Arensman, Michael Storer, Giulio Pellizzari, Enric Mas, Igor Arrieta, Jan Hirt, David de la Cruz, Chris Harper, Damiano Caruso
Pick: Jonas Vingegaard
How: Visma to somewhat control the stage and still deliver another win.
Original: Rúben Silva
Rúben SilvaEditor-in-Chief
A founding contributor to CyclingUpToDate since its launch in January 2022, Ruben Silva has played a central role in shaping the site’s editorial direction and long-term growth. Before joining the project, he built his experience through independent blogging at Echelons Hub and by producing race previews for Ciclismo Internacional, developing a strong analytical voice rooted in daily engagement with professional cycling.
Beyond editorial work, he has been closely involved in the expansion and coordination of CyclingUpToDate’s wider network, helping establish and support sister platforms across multiple languages. This includes ongoing collaboration with CiclismoAlDia (Spanish), CiclismoAtual (Portuguese), WielrennenUpToDate (Dutch), and RadsportAktuell (German), contributing to a shared editorial vision and consistent international coverage.
He also helps oversee editorial governance across the network, setting standards for accuracy and consistency and coordinating updates or corrections when needed.
Originally from the Porto metropolitan area in Portugal, he holds a bachelor’s degree in Geography. His path into cycling journalism was shaped not through formal media training, but through independent reporting, community engagement, and sustained on-the-ground involvement in the sport.
Over the course of his career, he has conducted approximately 100 interviews across road cycling and cyclocross, ranging from one-to-one conversations and online formats to press conferences and on-site pre- and post-race coverage. His interviews include leading riders, team managers, and prominent figures within cycling media: Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, Joao Almeida and Tom Pidcock; managers like Patrick Lefevere and Joxean Matxin; and YouTube personality Bryan Kennedy (BKXC)...
Within 18 months of launch, he helped grow CyclingUpToDate’s English-language platform into one of the most-read cycling news websites, built entirely from the ground up. As both a professional journalist and lifelong cycling enthusiast, his focus remains on delivering accurate, timely, and well-contextualized coverage.
claps 2visitors 2
Just in
Popular news
Latest comments
- Great win.However will the world champions jersey be simply a domestic for the season which will some what tarnish the jersey. I hope he is given free rein to try and win some races.paultryan200206-11-2026
- Gretsky wow how old are you lol. Classy sportman though.🤣🤣🤣🤣 Hope it is a good as the one they made on Mark Cavendish.paultryan200206-11-2026
- Literally the perfect RedBull athlete.anonymouscyclist06-11-2026
- And well understood in the CX community.anonymouscyclist06-11-2026
- "Anatomy of a G.O.A.T." OK, that's great!!! I've been saying all along: Tadej Pogačar-Pogi is the G.O.A.T... period. Not only in cycling... but he's the greatest sportsman that ever lived !!! But let's take a look of what real foolishness is. We have many many fools, also on this site, saying that Pogi is "boring,"... he's making cycling "boring"??? I can't believe what's comming out of their deteriorating bad breath mouths. So I guess Merckx, Hinault, Indurain, Fasto Coppi and Anquetil were also boring at their time!?!? I guess Michael Jordan, Le Bron, Gretzky, Messi, Ronaldo, Shumacher, Novak Džoković, Federer, Rossi, Marquez, Phelps, Michaela Shiffrin, Venus Williams, Bolt, Lewis Hamilton... etc. were all boring. PS: Many cycling fans that think that way, have to get a brain scan. Ad acta!!!PogiSloFans06-11-2026
- ridiculous. a normal racing incident. how lame do you have to be to complain about that?Ketterechts06-11-2026
- Rubbing is racing.
santiagobenites06-11-2026 - Throws an elbow, but crashes afterwards and he's upset.
Front24206-11-2026 - There should be nothing but praise for them: 1. Trying to make things safer, and 2. Trying something "new".acem8206-11-2026
- And a bit of a malcontent on top of it all that doesn’t help.mij06-11-2026
Loading
5 Comments