Primoz Roglic suffered his first blow of the 2025
Giro d'Italia on stage 7, being beaten and gapped by
Juan Ayuso at the line as his main Maglia Rosa rival took the stage win. According to one American ex-pro, Roglic's performance lacked the characteristic spark of the Slovenian.
"Roglic looks like he is training. I’m saying this from the couch and this is just my opinion, but he just seems so relaxed and not razor sharp. His interviews up until this point have been very “sometimes you win, sometimes you don’t,” and honestly, his racing shows the same level of commitment—kinda there, but not really all there," writes former Vuelta a Espana stage winner
Tom Danielson on his
X (Twitter) account post-stage 7. "Is it possible that Red Bull and he are both here to prepare for the Tour and not to win the Giro to 'salvage' the season? I think yes. Can he win this way? Probably, in the end. But after today, it’s possible there will be some rough moments ahead."
"If you watch the last two kilometres, you’ll see him constantly looking for cover in the group," Danielson continues. "When Ciccone and Bernal attacked, he did try to accelerate but was passed by the others. He ended up doing a steady effort and coming from behind in the end, but he seems to be lacking that race-day top end. This finish and this style of racing would normally suit him perfectly."
In comparison to Roglic,
UAE Team Emirates - XRG leader Ayuso left an impressive mark on Danielson. "Ayuso won the stage with a killer blow close to the line, which no one could match. Simply put, he had more top-end power than everyone," says the 47-year-old. "He actually started his effort about five riders back and still got a good gap when he cleared Bernal. This is really hard to do on such a steep climb, as passing five riders who are already doing a lot of power means you really have to do a lot more than them. If he had, say, had his teammate lead him out on the steep part and then attacked from second wheel, he would have gained closer to 10 seconds, I think."
Not even Ayuso is free from criticism though. "While Ayuso showed his form, he definitely did not show his leadership," Danielson adds. "He was rarely with his teammates during the climb, often moving up on his own. When Majka was pulling on the front, you could see him look back for Ayuso, and it seemed he even shouted for him to get up there. From my experience, it’s hard to pull hard on the front for your leader when you can’t even see or hear them. The Giro is a crazy race, and Ayuso will need to step up. He needs to ride with his team and use his teammates. His rivals will for sure take advantage of this."
"In conclusion, I think the takeaway from today is that Roglic’s lock on this race is not as 'airtight' as perhaps it seemed on paper," finishes the American's analysis. "I’m speculating he has come into the race to train through it with an eye on July. I think he will be doing more 'listening to his body' each day than doing what it takes to win the race."
"I think he can still win this way, but I think he is beatable. The plot now is: what will UAE do? Will they go all in on Ayuso, or will they play the cards of Del Toro, Yates, and McNulty?" Danielson concludes. "If UAE’s main goal is to win the Giro, then I would focus on sending those guys in breaks on transition stages to try and gain big time. Focus on putting Roglic and his team up against the wall to see where they really are and how badly they really want it. But you’ve got to do this strategy soon, as it will be too late in the second half of the race."
I think he's there hoping for the best with his fitness while still having his pipedream of a TdF win. He's not capable of winning the TdF, this is the way to do it while hoping to take the Giro
I agree with Tom's stategy for UAE to take the offensive. As shown in his tt performance, Roglic is in excellent form. He's being patient, pacing himself, saving his energy for a few decisive stages. Look at how far down his teammates were on stage 7. He gave them the day off to save their legs too. Today they deliberately gave up the maglia rosa to Astana, who will defend it fiercely for the UCI points. Brilliant strategy, taking the pressure of the team until the crucial final week.
He definitely doesn't want red yet. But much of that is probably because he has no confidence in his team.