PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2023 stage 9 - Explosive Caravaca de la Cruz expected scene for battle between Evenepoel, Jumbo and UAE

Preview. Primoz Roglic has won the stage and Sepp Kuss took over the lead at Xorret del Catí. Now Jumbo-Visma leads the Vuelta a Espana, and stage 9 will already be a challenge as the summit finish in Caravaca de la Cruz presents an opportunity for attacks.

Stage nine, the final day of the first week, doesn't show any mercy for those who dislike climbing. It is a hilly stage, likely one for the breakaway, as the riders tackle an interesting finale in Caravaca de la Cruz. An interesting day, a classic Vuelta stage I would say, the profile is very unusual and the final climb is as inconsistent as they come.

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Stage 9: Cartagena - Caravaca de la Cruz, 185.4 kilometers

After a flat start the riders find the Puerto de Casas la Marina la Perdiz. It is 12.1 kilometers at 4.9%, however it does feature a small descent close to the summit. It is still very far away from the finish however, afterwards are a bunch of rolling hills and a plateau ride into the town of Caravaca de la Cruz. The finish is in the hills surrounding the town, an ascent that is something special.

The climb is 8.1 kilometers at 5.4% but the average doesn't tell the story. There are five small descent or flat sections spread all throughout the ascent. It is essentially a combination of ramps, on twisty explosive roads. Most riders will eye the final 3.5Km, the gradients will rise as high at 17%, and then the final kilometer averages close to 8%. It's not a climb that the riders will be able to ride at pace, it's a very difficult effort which can prove to be very complicated to manage for some.

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Caravaca de la Cruz: 8.1Km; 5.4%

The Weather

Map Vuelta a Espana 2023 stage 9

Today the rainy forecast didn't prove itself, but that's unlikely to repeat itself. Strong eastern wind and rain are expected. Perhaps not as much late into the afternoon, but the forecast has heavy rain in the morning in the region of Caravaca de la Cruz and the roads are expected to be wet.

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The Favourites

Remco Evenepoel - Today was ideal for him, the climb didn't allow for tactical play, and having great legs he could control the race. Later in the race this won't be the case, however stage 9 might. The climb has a few more steps so it presents chances for attacks, as Evenepoel will not be pushing a group on the flat naturally. I wouldn't say the stage win (if a breakaway doesn't succeed) is likely unless he is above the competition, however it will be a tense finale for his GC run - even if on a climb like this it's a matter of seconds.

Jumbo - Visma - They have the room to play tactically. It's a day with one decisive climb however with the steps as I've mentioned, the team can play with Sepp Kuss once again. But if they risk with Jonas Vingegaard or Primoz Roglic they also have the chances to succeed. At this point it is about ignoring all else and focus on taking down the Belgian, but as the climb is not too hard it's important for them to keep the race as it is for the time being.

UAE Team Emirates - I don't think UAE can do much, they have three riders but they all look a tiny below the Jumbo trio themselves. João Almeida is not an explosive rider, Juan Ayuso is but Jumbo will cover him if he attacks, and although Marc Soler could have more freedom, again in normal conditions Jumbo will have three riders and he'll be covered. It's not a day where they can likely deploy any complex tactics, essentially they'd do the same as today and hope for better luck in a sprint - or late attack that ends up succeeding for some reason.

It is another day with only one moment which should be important for the overall classification. Hence the rest of the riders who hope to contest for the Top10 are likely to try and stay as conservative as possible throughout the day and save fireworks for late in the day. Bahrain has looked very good in the last two summit finishes and at the time being both Mikel Landa and Wout Poels sit in the Top5. Lenny Martínez still hangs on to the youngsters jersey, and then we've got a few outsiders but to mention there is Aleksandr Vlasov and Cian Uijtdebroeks who will have a saying when it comes to the fight for the stage win if they're on a good day.

Again, it is a day suited to the breakaway, I don't think Jumbo-Visma will try to control the breakaway or push hard throughout a mostly flat/rolling day into a summit finish where there are no guarantees of a possible time gain. With the race lead and two stage wins for some of it's leaders also, there isn't frankly a reason to push, but I doubt any other team will want to do the same. Hence the escapees have a good chance.

Jonathan Castroviejo, Damiano Caruso, Sergio Higuita, Andreas Kron, Lennert van Eetvelt, Geoffrey Bouchard, Rui Costa, Rein Taaramäe, Oier Lazkano, Jesús Herrada, Romain Bardet, Kévin Vauquelin and Samuele Battistella are among the riders I'd consider contenders. To pick one is very difficult as the start of the stage is flat and we may have a very mixed group of escapees with different types of riders and missing some of the main figures.

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Prediction Vuelta a Espana 2023 stage 9:

*** Oier Lazkano, Rui Costa, Romain Bardet
** Remco Evenepoel, Primoz Roglic, Damiano Caruso
* Jonas Vingegaard, Juan Ayuso, Sepp Kuss, Sergio Higuita, Andreas Kron, Samuele Battistella

Pick: Rui Costa

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