Preview. Stage 8 of the Vuelta a Espana will be a very complicated one, featuring plenty ascents and the brutally steep Xorret del Catí before the finish. The GC riders will be taken to the limit on a sharp ascent where many may struggle.
In cycling country, the riders set off from Dénia where many had their team training camps early in the year. However what follows is certainly harder, with five categorized climbs and many more en route to Xorret de Catí, where the steep gradients will see further damage done in the GC fight.
Another day without any brutal ascent before the finale but absolutely packed with climbing. Over 3600 meters of climbing with four categorized ascents in the first two thirds of the day, and plenty more uncategorized. The first 20 kilometers of the day are flat however, not ideal for the breakaway opportunists. The longest ascent of the day will have bonus seconds attributed at it's summit, the 11.1-kilometer Puerto de la Carrasqueta summits with 54 kilometers to go and averages 4.6%.
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From there on follow rolling roads, several small hilltops where, if it's in the breakaway, the fight for the stage win will certainly explode as riders look to anticipate the final ascent. That one is a well known feature in the Vuelta, that is the incredibly steep Xorret de Catí.
The climb is 3.8 kilometers at 11.4%, but it's a mean climb in every aspect. It slowly steepens until it reaches 15% and then the riders face several minutes of racing at that gradient. There is no moment of restbite and not a single switchback in the ascent, it's a pure W/Kg challenge up the short ascent which can create big differences. The summit is at 3.6 kilometers to go, following is a very fast steep descent and the final 900 meters which slightly rise to the line.
The Weather
Rain, wet roads and wind. The weather is not looking good for the riders, the roads will be treacherous and not only will this make the descents dangerous and increase the tension in the peloton, but it will also add to the fatigue and possible damage some of the riders who aren't fond of the weather.
The Favourites
Fight for the red jersey - This will be a very interesting plot point for the day. So many riders jumped up the GC after the Javalambre raid that we're having an extra set of riders aiming for a strong result and unwilling to take risks with a breakaway now. Remco Evenepoel for example, the first of the initial race win favourites, sits 9th. Plenty riders ahead of him, however the fight for who gets red at the end of the day is between Lenny Martínez and Sepp Kuss. Only 8 seconds separate the two, Kuss lost time on Arinsal but there he worked for his leaders. In Javalambre Kuss was the superior one. For the time being in no way will Jumbo sacrifice him, all three leaders have free reign. The very steep gradients suit the flyweight Frenchman however, it will be a very balanced fight.
How will the main favourites handle - However behind the main battle takes place. This is not a climb for accelerations, and not one where team or slipstreaming really matter. All about the W/Kg. A climb I would say suits perfectly Primoz Roglic, however Remco Evenepoel crushed the competition last year in Les Praeres which is a very similar ascent. Equally, Jonas Vingegaard has in the past flown up Mende with Tadej Pogacar. All three have proven to be capable of putting on an insane pace up an ascent like this, I wouldn't put any above the other although Evenepoel did show weakness in Javalambre.
For now I would put those three as the main victory contenders. Juan Ayuso should be close to them I wouldn't be surprised. Cian Uijtdebroeks has another day to prove himself but I argue the climb won't suit him very. For João Almeida, Aleksandr Vlasov and Geraint Thomas it's a day to do their best and hope for many of the riders ahead to crack so they regain positions.
Breakaway opportunists? - This is a day that suits a breakaway. At this point in the race a few quality climbers have lost time and will be in pursuit of a result, the day includes plenty climbing and I doubt any team will be pushing hard from early on. The many wet descents and rolling terrain makes it hard to organize a chase, but much will depend on who indeed makes it to the front. Groupama aren't just going to want to give away the jersey, so although the stage is fit for that, don't expect another raid of the same size.
A few who can aim for a surprise red jersey may try, as they aren't really marked by many. Hugh Carthy, Einer Rubio, Juan Pedro López and Santiago Buitrago namely, although it is of course a big task. More freedom comes to the likes of Romain Bardet, Damiano Caruso, Lennard Kämna, Sergio Higuita and Lennert van Eetvelt. It is noteworthy that several possible breakaway contenders have temporarily at least inserted themselves in the GC fight and will likely see what their real chances are of staying up there.
Prediction Vuelta a Espana 2023 stage 8:
*** Remco Evenepoel, Primoz Roglic, Jonas Vingegaard
** Romain Bardet, Lennard Kämna
* Lenny Martínez, Sepp Kuss, Juan Ayuso, Cian Uijtdebroeks, João Almeida, Sergio Higuita, Damiano Caruso
Pick: Primoz Roglic
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