Preview UAE Tour 2026 stage 1 - Can Evenepoel and Del Toro surprise Jonathan Milan on uphill sprint?

From the 16th to the 22nd of February, the peloton will be in the Middle East for what is the second World Tour stage-race of the season: the UAE Tour. The race, characterized by its flat stages and hot weather, will once again host some of the world's very best. We preview stage 1, which is expected to start and finish at 10:10 and 13:30CET.

The race was only created in 2019, off the back of the success of other events such as the Abu Dhabi Tour and the Dubai Tour. The region, host to large financial capacity, hot weather in February, and its World Tour status, has managed to attract big figures on a yearly basis. Its first edition, in 2019, immediately saw Primoz Roglic take the overall win ahead of then World Champion Alejandro Valverde.

With the growth of UAE Team Emirates - XRG, the nation's own team, the importance it gained grew even bigger. Adam Yates won the race in 2020, and that gave way to then Pogacar's two consecutive victories ahead of the Briton in 2021 and 2022. Then World Champion Remco Evenepoel soared to victory in 2023; his compatriot Lennert van Eetvelt won in 2024; whilst in 2025 it was World Champion Tadej Pogacar who took a dominant victory, winning both traditional finished into Jebej Jais and Jebel Hafeet.

The race begins with a 144-kilometer stage starting out in Madinat Zayed Majils and the riders will be facing a flat course where the sprinters will have their first opportunity to succeed - the first of many. The first half of the stage features a straight line that is dozens of kilometers long through the desert, where crosswinds can spell chaos.

As usual, the finale of the first day of racing takes place in the Liwa Palace, a short stage that should be fast, featuring an uphill sprint that is often interesting. The final climb is 1.4 kilometers long at 4%, in a straight line, a sprint where the ability to have a strong sustained effort is key.

The wind will be blowing with meaningful strength from the northwest, which means that there will be an extensive period of time being spent in a tail-crosswind, ideal circumstances for echelons to happen. Now, this does not mean they will, and all teams will know of this so getting caught by surprise isn't likely, but with the right timing and power splits can happen. This can very much affect the outcome of the stage too, as the smaller the peloton and harder the stage, then the more likely it is the pure sprinters may struggle in that finale.

Jonathan Milan - The Italian is the man to beat, and the winner on this same finale last year. He can sprint better than anyone here, and unlike his weight would point towards, he can do this type of climb quite well. It simply is hard to imagine him not winning here, as he also has the leadout in case it is necessary for him to succeed.

Remco Evenepoel & Isaac del Toro - If the stage is hard and affected by echelons mainly, I believe it's very important to look at these two men, who will be on the hunt for bonifications and who knows, the stage win. The final climb is not overly hard, but Evenepoel and Del Toro are well capable of arriving to the sprint fresher than the sprinters, and both have got that top end speed that is similar to Tadej Pogacar's. If they time it well, they both also have very strong leadout men who can deliver them in prime position.

This is going to be a day for the sprinters nevertheless. You could excuse those two exceptions because they are riders who are in another league, but don't expect to see other climbs or even many puncheurs in contention. But of course, it can happen...

However the fast men are those you should look at. More specifically I would look at Ethan Vernon as a serious threat to Milan, as he is a very strong sprinter who is perfectly adapted to the uphill finishes. Hence, he is likely to be up there. Erlend Blikra and Madis Mihkels, to a smaller degree, are also well adapted to such finishes but to see them take a win here would be overreaching, usually.

Gerben Thijssen, Daniel Skerl, Cees Bol, Alberto Dainese, Casper van Uden and Matteo Malucelli are men to keep under eye; and then there is INEOS Grenadiers who have Sam Welsford but the Australian usually struggles a lot with any type of climb. I think he is the bet but Joshua Tarling has better chances of finishing high in the group, and potentially chase bonifications to try and jump into the race lead the next day.

*** Jonathan Milan, Ethan Vernon
** Remco Evenepoel, Isaac del Toro, Erlend Blikra
* Madis Mihkels, Daniel Skerl, Cees Bol, Alberto Dainese, Casper van Uden, Matteo Malucelli, Joshua Tarling

Pick: Jonathan Milan

How: Regular bunch sprint.