PREVIEW | UAE Tour 2025 stage 1 - Can Pogacar win uphill sprint against Milan, Merlier, Philipsen and others?
Cycling
From February 17th to 23rd, the UAE Tour 2025 will take place. It is the second World Tour stage-race of the year and will feature plenty of stars in the field of the sprinters and also climbers - headlined by Tadej Pogacar. We preview stage 1.
The first stage of the race is a full-on ride through the desert, much of the stage in a literal straight line, where strong winds could create absolute chaos. To be fair on the riders, there will only be 137 kilometers of racing, but I doubt there will be many excited to tackle on such a route.
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The finale however will be slightly uphill in Liwa, giving way to an exciting first sprint for the race lead. It's not an easy one, and the battles for leadout won't be so ferocious in the final kilometer, but instead into the final corner with over 1.5 kilometers to go. From there on, pure power will matter, but form and sustained power will be just as important.
The Weather
A lot of heat, 30 degrees in the desert and the wind won't really blow. There will be a small southern breeze, meaning a long block headwind throughout most of the day... The sprint could have a crosswind but it won't be strong enough to make much of an effect.
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The Favourites
Tadej Pogacar - Can he? Logic would say no, but how many times have we been proven wrong in the past. With 2025 starting the safe bet is to actually never say Pogacar's "can't surely do that right?" Yes he can. The sprint won't be steep so definitely it will be a big challenge, but if he starts in good position then he can potentially go and grab some bonifications or even more.
Tim Merlier - Merlier is the rider who traditionally thrives on the opening day of any race when there is a sprint involved. He won the opening stage of the last two editions and not just that, the uphill sprint suits him. The Belgian is a rider that will be licking his lips, and although he may not have a luxury leadout as some of his rivals, he knows how to do it himself and can very well go on and win for the third time this year.
Jonathan Milan - The form Milan showed at the Volta a Comunitat Valenciana was impressive. When it comes to pure speed and leadout the Italian is fully covered, but going uphill he is also looking very good and having a win for Lidl-Trek here would be no surprise whatsoever.
Jasper Philipsen - Philipsen is a very strong sprinter who also loves the uphill finishes, but he won't be above the competition here I assume. At the same time, there is no argument against the Alpecin-Deceuninck rider, who will have a full team dedicated to chasing wins on the flat days including this one.
This is the sprinter's race and there will be a whole array of fast men wanting to have a strong result or even win throughout the week. Some of these will enjoy the slightly uphill finish whilst others not so much and can benefit more from the chaos of the flat finales. Visma's Olav Kooij will certainly have this as a priority this week, having a leader's jersey available but also the sprint will be hard and better suited to his abilities. The likes of Tobias Lund Andresen, Lionel Taminiaux and Ide Schelling are also going to look forward to a finale that is as hard as possible to as to improve their chances of a top result.
In the more pure sprinter field we've got actually quite a lot of riders, who won't enjoy this finale as much likely. It will require a longer and more constant effort that will drain some of the pure power. Some sprinters like Fabio Jakobsen, Dylan Groenewegen and Sam Welsford certainly have the watts but this effort may put them on a major disadvantage.
Arvid de Kleijn, Phil Bauhaus, Gerben Thijssen, Juan Sebastián Molano and Fernando Gaviria will all be interesting outsiders, whilst we can also consider the likes of Matteo Malucelli or Oded Kogut for a Top10 result.
Prediction UAE Tour 2025 stage 1:
*** Tim Merlier, Jonathan Milan
** Jasper Philipsen, Olav Kooij
* Tadej Pogacar, Tobias Lund Andresen, Dylan Groenewegen, Sam Welsford, Arvid de Kleijn, Phil Bauhaus, Juan Sebastián Molano, Fernando Gaviria
Pick: Tim Merlier
How: Regular bunch sprint.
Original: Rúben Silva
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The UAE Tour is now just days away, we sat down with some of the riders taking part to get their thoughts 💭 #UAETour @AbuDhabiSC@ihc__official@Mubadala@NakheelOfficial@aldar pic.twitter.com/m0S4ki4ob8
— UAE Tour Official (@uae_tour) February 13, 2025
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- Funny that they shorten women’s races but have no qualms about letting U23 do the same distances.Jumpyjohn23-03-2025
- Why is that relevant when discussing speed?Mistermaumau23-03-2025
- But he wasn’t the only one ;-)Mistermaumau23-03-2025
- Obviously the questions are more important to some here than to them or the team so I suggest looking for answers instead of asking questions between ourselves. We’ll probably get them unless someone actually goes to ask the protagonists themselves. Here are some starters : They like riding together; they have their own rivalry that helps bring out the best in both; they might get more points helping each other compared to racing separate races. In any case, unless we hear MJ complaining about it, I don’t think it’s going to change, it’s the Sepp Kuss syndrome all over again, fans lobbying against the will of the rider.Mistermaumau23-03-2025
- Mine goes to MVDP for entertaining us all year round :-) Stellar race, Ganna impressive in his own way as many predicted after some oddly lacklustre times.Mistermaumau23-03-2025
- i remember when not too long ago mathieu was regarded as a real tactical knucklehead. i’m not sure that was ever quite accurate, but it’s certainly the case that over the years he has become a real master tactician. in the biggest races, van der poel rarely makes choices that don’t fully optimize every specific advantage he has.OCexile23-03-2025
- Whatever the result, I believe the strategy by UAE to launch Pogacar was absolutely the right one. Unfortunately, they just were not able to execute it the way they must have planned, being all over the place at the start of the Cipressa.Cooldude23-03-2025
- They are without doubt not just the best two classics riders of this generation, but amongst the best of all time. MvdP is more suited to MSR and PR (which Pog has yet to race), while Pog is now almost untouchable at LBL and Lombardia. RVV is the only one where both basically have an equal chance to win.Cooldude23-03-2025
- bravissima!
maria2024202423-03-2025 - According to Tadej's Strava upload, he went up the Cipressa at an average speed of 37.6kph. Rocket ship! He did the 5.63km verified 'Cipressa' Strava segment in 8:59 minutes, which has a 4.3% average grade and total elevation gain of 229m. Naturally, he got the Strava KOM.Pogboom23-03-2025