PREVIEW | Tour of Guangxi 2023 - UAE Team Emirates the big favourites for GC win; De Lie, Kooij and Milan battle for final sprints of the year

Preview. From the 12th to the 17th of October the peloton takes on the final World Tour event. The Tour of Guangxi returns after several years due to the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic, and will provide a final opportunity for riders to put on important wins.

Stage 1 of the race will start and finish in Beihai. It is a day with 135 kilometers on the menu and three laps of a long circuit. This one features a 1.5-kilometer ascent at 4.7% which ends with 17.5 kilometers to go, but it shouldn't prevent a bunch sprint. A non-technical bunch sprint wraps it up.

600 meters of climbing on day 2 of racing. It is a different day that moves from city to city, but it does again feature three laps that should lead to a bunch sprint. This time in Qinzhou, it will be another urban flat sprint.

Stage 3 features a five-lap circuit in Nanning. 134 kilometers in distance, it is the most explosive stage and only one that can actually see differences from far away. Certainly riders will save their legs for the final ascent as all roads inbetween are pan-flat. However the ascent is 1.4 kilometers long at 11.5%, this is hard enough to make differences, create splits. The climb ends with 19.5 kilometers to go. There is space to reorganize afterwards, however it is an open day.

Stage 4 should be the queen stage of the race. Not overly hard, it is a one-effort day, which is mostly pan-flat and then the race will kick off in the run-up to the final ascent. This will be the Nongla Scenic Area ascent, a familiar sight in the race. It is a day for the puncheurs certainly, it's a big-ring ascent all the way (the profile exaggerates the steepness of the finale, local GPS error). It's 3.3 kilometers at 6.6%, an explosive effort which could lead to a reduced group sprint, but late attacks and only a few seconds can decide the overall classification.

Stage 5 is the longest of the race. With 209 kilometers in distance and a couple climbs, it can actually see a reduced bunch sprint. It depends on how the racing pans out. There is a quick combo of two ascents: 5Km at 3.3% and 4.5Km at 4.6% which summit with 41 and 35 kilometers to go. Following the descent however the roads are pan-flat into Guilin with no traps before a regular sprint finish.

Stage 6 features the virtually same formula to that of the previous day. A pan-flat day with a combination of two small ascents that can see some action. The final day of racing ends in Guilin and it features a combination of 2.7Km at 5% and 4.2Km with 4.6% which ends with 52 and 42 kilometers to go.

The Favourites

The GC is to be played for on stages 3 and 4. Mainly 4, with the summit finish. Gaps will be small so all seconds will matter, and bonifications can be played for in other days. The race is not hard enough for the climbers, however we do have some men of the mountains present. Take EF Education-EasyPost for example with the trio of Esteban Chaves, Hugh Carthy and Rigoberto Urán. Cristián Rodríguez and Ivan Sosa are also part of that list, but the climbing legs can still have a positive effect - Sosa's teammate Matteo Jorgenson can benefit from his versatility.

The puncheurs however are the riders who should be towards the front. UAE Team Emirates, in search of confirming their victory in the UCI rankings, brought a combo of Tim Wellens and Felix Grossschartner - both riders perfectly suited to these explosive climbs. DSM have the combo of Andreas Leknessund and Oscar Onley, INEOS Grenadiers have the combo of Ethan Hayter and Jhonatan Narváez and BORA - hansgrohe see Max Schachmann come in as the leader in search of returning to the spotlight.

Other big figures

The race features plenty stages for the sprinters. Although many riders - and fans - already find themselves resting from a long season, the truth is there are four World Tour wins up for grabs for the fast men. Hence, we still have a sizeable field of sprinters present. Olav Kooij, Arnaud de Lie and Jonathan Milan, a new generation of sprinters, will be the main figures to fight for the wins in the flat finales.

Sam Bennett, Sam Welsford and Juan Sebastián Molano will also be part of the favourites for these days and within a shot of the win. Jakub Mareczko, Max Kanter, Max Walscheid, Marijn van den Berg, Elia Viviani, Itamar Einhorn and Arvid de Kleijn fill out a quality pack of fast men.

Prediction Tour of Guangxi 2023 overall classification:

*** Felix Grossschartner, Tim Wellens
** Matteo Jorgenson, Max Schachmann
* Jhonatan Narváez, Ethan Hayter, Arnaud de Lie, Esteban Chaves, Andreas Leknessund, Oscar Onley

Pick: Felix Grossschartner