PREVIEW | Tour Down Under 2024 stage 2 - Hilly finale provides opportunity for explosive GC battle

Preview. Stage 2 of the Tour Down Under features a significantly harder profile than the opening day, and it may prove to be an important day for the overall classification. Sam Welsford's lead will be put to the test.

Stage 2 into Lobethal is a relatively open day. Short on the bike and with another circuit, however the final three-lap circuit features some hilltops where attacks can come. Here the racing will be open, the GC can be played for, but a sprint is also possible. It is a day with a 10-kilometer climb right from the start, although not many are likely to risk it all at this point in the race. However it's an interesting and explosive start for a 141-kilometer day.

Then we have a three-lap circuit around Lobethal, not too different than the previous day. three small ascents to note. 1Km at 5.7% with 20 kilometers to go, 1.6Km at 7.5% with 8.5 kilometers to go, and 600 meters at 5.6% with only 4.5 kilometers to go. Then, a small descent and a slight drag to the line.

All in all, a very open finale. It could well finish in a reduced bunch sprint, however the small climbs offer plenty opportunities for puncheurs, rouleurs and classics specialists to launch attacks. In a race that is often decided by just a few seconds, it can be a key day and specially because it will be the first real climbing test and riders will be unaware of who has the best legs.

The Weather

The temperatures will be much lower, this will be a delight to the riders who won't be baking in the sun for a few hours. Decently strong winds from the south means we will have a headwind in the toughest climb of the circuit, a crosswind from the base of the final hilltop almost to the finale, and a tailwind sprint. The sprinters are ultimately benefited from the weather.

The Favourites

Last year the race featured a similar day, however the weather here won't favour attackers. In anticipation to rivals, many may try to use this day to get an early gap in the race which may later become decisive. Specially the teams with several climbers and puncheurs can try to make something out of it, as there won't be many teams with clear interest to chase and the rolling profile makes it quite possible for late attacks to work.

Team Jayco AlUla - The Aussie team did not net the win today with Caleb Ewan, with these climbs it's definitely not certain that he will survive. The climbs and headwind are also likely seeing Simon Yates take a step to the sidelines, I expect action from both Luke Plapp and Chris Harper however. It's the kind of finale where a late attack can succeed and both have good engines, they can anticipate the main climbers and get a step ahead of these main stage-racers.

UAE Team Emirates - UAE definitely have weapons for this stage. Alessandro Covi and Diego Ulissi pack a nice sprint and could take a victory in that way, however as strong puncheurs they may also perform on the climbs. The team has the cards to play, Finn Fisher-Black is aiming for the GC with certainty after netting bonus seconds today, whilst António Morgado finds very suiting terrain and Isaac Del Toro seems to be in good form. It is the ideal lineup to launch attacks in the finale, they only have something to win by doing so.

The weather favours a sprint. A bunch sprint will not take place as attacks or a strong pace are certain, and the stage start is hard. However a few fast men can absolutely survive unless the pace is wild. Definitely take into consideration the likes of Corbin Strong, Casper Pedersen and Danny van Poppel. The last two pack a very strong punch. Others such as Biniam Girmay and Matthias Vacek can possibly survive and then fight for the win, whilst we've got strong puncheurs with a big sprint such as Julian Alaphilippe, Jhonatan Narváez and Michele Gazzoli.

However assuming a sprint will decide the day does not mean it'll happen with certainty. Teams may cancel each other's attacks, but that may not take place. Strong rouleurs such as Quinn Simmons and Derek Gee can absolutely get a gap solo and ride to the win. This also includes other riders who have been mentioned beforehand. Other strong puncheurs may find themselves in the right move such as Georg Zimmermann, Christian Scaroni and Gonzalo Serrano.

However the race may break apart in the main climb, and despite the wind a group of strong climbers may find themselves away from the rest, and then collaborate to the finish. Here other riders could play a role in the finale such as Jack Haig, Milan Vader, Stephen Williams, Laurens de Plus and Damien Howson.

Prediction Tour Down Under 2024 stage 2:

*** Danny van Poppel, Jhonatan Narváez
** Luke Plapp, Corbin Strong, Julian Alaphilippe
* Casper Pedersen, Biniam Girmay, Quinn Simmons, Georg Zimmermann, Derek Gee, Caleb Ewan

Pick: Danny van Poppel

Preview written by Rúben Silva.