Our festival programming is here! 🎉 Get amongst Adelaide’s buzzing atmosphere, take in the City of Adelaide Tour Village, experience the race from the regions or give the kids a day they won’t forget 🙌 Explore our full program ⬇️ #TourDownUnder tourdownunder.com.au/festival?utm_c…
PREVIEW | Tour Down Under 2024 stage 2 - Hilly finale provides opportunity for explosive GC battle
CyclingTuesday, 16 January 2024 at 22:10
Preview. Stage 2 of the Tour Down Under features a significantly harder profile than the opening day, and it may prove to be an important day for the overall classification. Sam Welsford's lead will be put to the test.
Stage 2 into Lobethal is a relatively open day. Short on the bike and with another circuit, however the final three-lap circuit features some hilltops where attacks can come. Here the racing will be open, the GC can be played for, but a sprint is also possible. It is a day with a 10-kilometer climb right from the start, although not many are likely to risk it all at this point in the race. However it's an interesting and explosive start for a 141-kilometer day.
Stage 2: Norwood - Lobethal, 141.6 kilometers
Then we have a three-lap circuit around Lobethal, not too different than the previous day. three small ascents to note. 1Km at 5.7% with 20 kilometers to go, 1.6Km at 7.5% with 8.5 kilometers to go, and 600 meters at 5.6% with only 4.5 kilometers to go. Then, a small descent and a slight drag to the line.
All in all, a very open finale. It could well finish in a reduced bunch sprint, however the small climbs offer plenty opportunities for puncheurs, rouleurs and classics specialists to launch attacks. In a race that is often decided by just a few seconds, it can be a key day and specially because it will be the first real climbing test and riders will be unaware of who has the best legs.
The Weather
Map Tour Down Under 2024 stage 2
The temperatures will be much lower, this will be a delight to the riders who won't be baking in the sun for a few hours. Decently strong winds from the south means we will have a headwind in the toughest climb of the circuit, a crosswind from the base of the final hilltop almost to the finale, and a tailwind sprint. The sprinters are ultimately benefited from the weather.
The Favourites
Last year the race featured a similar day, however the weather here won't favour attackers. In anticipation to rivals, many may try to use this day to get an early gap in the race which may later become decisive. Specially the teams with several climbers and puncheurs can try to make something out of it, as there won't be many teams with clear interest to chase and the rolling profile makes it quite possible for late attacks to work.
Team Jayco AlUla - The Aussie team did not net the win today with Caleb Ewan, with these climbs it's definitely not certain that he will survive. The climbs and headwind are also likely seeing Simon Yates take a step to the sidelines, I expect action from both Luke Plapp and Chris Harper however. It's the kind of finale where a late attack can succeed and both have good engines, they can anticipate the main climbers and get a step ahead of these main stage-racers.
UAE Team Emirates - UAE definitely have weapons for this stage. Alessandro Covi and Diego Ulissi pack a nice sprint and could take a victory in that way, however as strong puncheurs they may also perform on the climbs. The team has the cards to play, Finn Fisher-Black is aiming for the GC with certainty after netting bonus seconds today, whilst António Morgado finds very suiting terrain and Isaac Del Toro seems to be in good form. It is the ideal lineup to launch attacks in the finale, they only have something to win by doing so.
The weather favours a sprint. A bunch sprint will not take place as attacks or a strong pace are certain, and the stage start is hard. However a few fast men can absolutely survive unless the pace is wild. Definitely take into consideration the likes of Corbin Strong, Casper Pedersen and Danny van Poppel. The last two pack a very strong punch. Others such as Biniam Girmay and Matthias Vacek can possibly survive and then fight for the win, whilst we've got strong puncheurs with a big sprint such as Julian Alaphilippe, Jhonatan Narváez and Michele Gazzoli.
However assuming a sprint will decide the day does not mean it'll happen with certainty. Teams may cancel each other's attacks, but that may not take place. Strong rouleurs such as Quinn Simmons and Derek Gee can absolutely get a gap solo and ride to the win. This also includes other riders who have been mentioned beforehand. Other strong puncheurs may find themselves in the right move such as Georg Zimmermann, Christian Scaroni and Gonzalo Serrano.
However the race may break apart in the main climb, and despite the wind a group of strong climbers may find themselves away from the rest, and then collaborate to the finish. Here other riders could play a role in the finale such as Jack Haig, Milan Vader, Stephen Williams, Laurens de Plus and Damien Howson.
Prediction Tour Down Under 2024 stage 2:
*** Danny van Poppel, Jhonatan Narváez
** Luke Plapp, Corbin Strong, Julian Alaphilippe
* Casper Pedersen, Biniam Girmay, Quinn Simmons, Georg Zimmermann, Derek Gee, Caleb Ewan
Pick: Danny van Poppel
Preview written by Rúben Silva.
claps 1visitors 1
Just in
Popular news
Latest comments
- No, it didn't. It has been debunked by the team that there was anything wrong with his feeding. Pogacar went too early and paid the price.maaiikeen31-12-2024
- Strong team around Jonas and pray each day that Tadej forgets to eat in the decisive stages (col du Granon). It also happened this year, stage 11 when Jonas won the sprint (incredible! Tadej was empty).
maria2024202430-12-2024 - Not quite yet I’d say but she could reach and surpass. You probably forgot Vos’ 2 track WC titles that outweigh the total and it has to be said more of PFPs MTB titles are a bit far fetched than Vos but yes they are comparable. It’s strange that with her consistent participation in xc she’s never ever managed to win even one race, Marie Schreiber can at least retire with that achievement ;-)Mistermaumau30-12-2024
- He may be known as “The goat” but I can’t realistically consider him a top ten candidate taking together all forms of cycling. Vos had 28 UCI WC wins, Absalon 33, Schurter 34, MVDP 41 and counting. As far as world championships they are all ahead too Longo, MVDP, PFP, Merckx, de Vlaeminck, TP and at least a half dozen others from long ago are surely higher up, or what criteria are you privileging other than a nickname?Mistermaumau30-12-2024
- and yeah, i’m a ridiculous blowhard for writing THAT MUCH. seriously, f me…OCexile30-12-2024
- this has diverged from being a per se cycling discussion, but that’s cool with me. so i live in the united states. for background, i grew up in southern california, educated at UC Irvine and UC Berkeley, and except for chunks of a 22 year Navy career i’ve lived here most of my life. there are things about this country, the way its social, political, and economic institutions function that IN MY OPINION fail considerably in comparison to other developed democracies. BUT, one thing that i think the US does excel in is that we have an extraordinarily high level of freedom of speech. now, that certainly opens the door for the alex joneses of the world to weaponize/monetize speech in utterly disgusting ways that do actual damage. it also gives freedom to politicians to say that the press is corrupt and should be jailed, like in russia, iran, or venezuela. these are DANGEROUS uses of freedom of speech. but as much as that freedom may imperil the well being of individuals and ideas — like the idea of liberty itself — it’s that freedom that has, over time, marked the SLOW movement toward greater equality and well being. this extreme level of free speech is certainly the primary fundamental right in the united states that has functioned, over time, to actively drive social progress. i mean, quack quack quack, right? the kind of speech that MOST needs protection is UNPOPULAR SPEECH. we KNOW this. but if you can only engage in unpopular speech IN PRIVATE, as you suggested, and be BARRED from a public platform to share those unpopular ideas, then your freedom to speak means very little and the whole project of social change and social progress grinds to a halt. “YES, you can talk about all races being equal to your friends, but you can’t publish any articles making that argument.” “YES, you can say that homosexuality isn’t a dangerous perversion that must be legislated against so long as you ONLY say it to your friends, but you can’t say it on a radio show.” so the problem is, if there’s going to be prior restraint of speech, the only person I’M gonna trust to decide who can say what before they say it is ME. if somebody wants to let me and my friends make all those decisions, then i’m IN. i’d expect a little pushback on that idea though. alex jones would probably like that job, too. lance would love that kind of power i bet. sooooo…. maybe it’s better to just leave things like they are. it’s ugly and messy and people get hurt, but once you SURRENDER that nearly unlimited freedom you’ll never get it back. and yes, society has drawn lines: still can’t threaten to blow up a mosque or share child pornography, etc. — that’s a pretty good idea. but erring on the side of freedom rather than censorship has been critical in preserving valuable free speech rather than seeing it slowly winnowed and legislated away. so yeah, there WILL be another alex jones, neonazis get to deny the holocaust, and lance gets to talk about cycling all he wants. and if you don’t like the source or the content then YOU are free to rail against it, or just not listen. as always, totally appreciate and respect YOUR perspective, brother. and i do get where you’re coming from. there are individuals in the US who have (or are about to have) the biggest platform there is who say things that drive me mad because i find them so dangerous and misleading, but the american version of democracy, with all its notable failings, has survived by preserving freedom of speech in the face of these types, not by limiting it.OCexile30-12-2024
- There is a cyclist, recently retired who raced as a Junior in 1997, and is known as 'The Goat'. Downhill legend, Greg Minnaar......wipperman9530-12-2024
- The road bias of this site shows up as PFP isn't mentioned - who is as successful as Vos, and from memory has more World titles.wipperman9530-12-2024
- his wife was surprisingly accurateabstractengineer30-12-2024
- Its the wrong thing to do the Vuelta after getting exhausted in the TDF. This is going to reduce his career potentialabstractengineer30-12-2024