PREVIEW | Tour de Pologne 2023 stage 5 - Bielsko-Biala circuit the final opportunities for climbers and puncheurs to explode GC

Preview. Stage 5 of the Tour de Pologne sees a hilly stage with a well-known finale in Bielsk-Biala, however this year the route features quite a few more climbs where there is the potential for a lot of damage and GC raids.

Another 3000 meters of climbing on the fifth day of racing at the Tour de Pologne. The first 60 kilometers are mostly flat, but the stage into the traditional finale into Bielsko-Biala will have a very difficult middle part where a lot can happen. Whether it will or not depend on how the riders decide to play out, in the day before the time-trial and a circuit finish it can be argued that it is not the ideal set of conditions to be a GC day.

Five climbs with descents and virtually no flat roads inbetween. 3.8Km at 6.4%, 7Km at 4.3%, 2Km at 11.4%, 3.9Km at 5.7% and 6Km at 6.3%. They will summit with 125, 110, 92, 78 and 58 kilometers to go. Are they hard enough to create differences? Yes absolutely, specially one which averages 11% and team support matters little. It is terrain where raids and attacks can take place.

If it does, it will be a difficult stage finale with the GC likely to see more attacks on the final circuit. If not, a likely sprint will take place - with the possibility of a late attack succeeding. In Bielsko-Biala the riders will race through the final circuit four times, it ends with a 2.3-kilometer climb at 4%. The circuit is fairly small which lifts the question of what will happen if the race explodes early on and riders are lapped in the city.

The Weather

The wind will come from the southwest and it will be meaningful. A tailwind on the final categorized climb which will be to the liking of those who want to attack, however on the final hilltop there should be a straight headwind, meaning a sprint ends up being more likely.

The Favourites

UAE - How will UAE want to play this? In the time-trial Rafal Majka stands no chance of taking the GC, so he could very well go on the attack as he carries tremendous form and UAE have João Almeida as the main favourite for the GC right now. A strong team also with Brandon McNulty, they have the potential to explode the race and run away with the victory. In any case if they decide to race more conservatively, Almeida still has chances of sprinting for the win and remain in a more stable position for the overall classification.

Matej Mohoric - On a day like this the race can completely blow up. Bahrain and Mohoric know this, they will have to be very careful in the many climbs. He's on great form and has great resistance but he is the man in the lead right now and not the main favourite for the GC. He runs the risk of being swarmed by everyone else. It'll be hard to know what choices to make, but if they luck out and it goes for a sprint, a second win is in the cards.

Michal Kwiatkowski - INEOS have Geraint Thomas, Laurens de Plus, Pavel Sivakov and Thymen Arensman who can ride in a breakaway, support a GC raid or push the pace to split the peloton early on. Only one GC card but they can do a lot on a day like this. Kwiato has not yet won in this race despite the great legs, he can also still go for the overall win so don't expect anything crazy from him.

Either from an early or late attack, or even a sprint, other GC riders have chances of sneaking with the win. A lot can happen with such an open field. The likes of Sergio Higuita, Ilan van Wilder and Samuele Battistella could have the sprint to win in a tough arrival such as this. Christian Scaroni, Oscar Onley, Eddie Dunbar, Lenny Martínez, Sylvain Moniquet and Lennert van Eetvelt are all riders to consider.

A breakaway would also stand good chances on a day like this, although I believe there will be too many interests from the peloton. There aren't obvious names popping out, riders only a few minutes in GC have reasons to try and attack, but others that could have complete freedom include Rune Herregodts, Lennard Kämna, Andreas Kron and Thomas de Gendt.

A sprint is not impossible. In the past sprinters have won here, however I recon they had slightly easier routes. With the time-trial on the next day and the headwind in the final climb you never know however, the race may not be attacked enough to really split things up. Olav Kooij would be a natural contender in that scenario, he packs a very strong uphill punch. Marijn van den Berg, Andrea Vendrame, Milan Menten and Pascal Ackermann would also have to be riders to consider.

Prediction Tour de Pologne 2023 stage 5:

*** João Almeida, Michal Kwiatkowski
** Samuele Battistella, Olav Kooij, Marijn van den Berg
* Matej Mohoric, Rafal Majka, Sergio Higuita, Ilan van Wilder, Andreas Kron, Andrea Vendrame, Milan Menten

Pick: Michal Kwiatkowski