PREVIEW | Tour de France 2025 stage 1 - Milan, Merlier, Philipsen and Girmay battle for the first yellow jersey of the race; Possible echelons
CyclingThe 2025 Tour de France will be the biggest and most important race of the season and will be taking place between the 5th and 27th of July. This is the sport's climax of the season and every year it delivers memorable action. We preview stage 1.
The race starts off with a flat stage in Lille where the sprinters will have the opportunity of taking the first yellow jersey for the first time in several years. The riders will have three fourth-category climbs where they can fight for the first KOM jersey and one of them will be the famous cobblestones of Mont Cassel - usually used in the 4 Jours de Dunkerque.
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On this day however neither the climbs or the early intermediate sprint should have an effect on the outcome of the day, but instead everyone will be saving their legs towards the final hours of racing and what should be a fast and furious finale back into Lille.
It will also be rather technical. The final kilometer not necessarily, as we have a 1.5-kilomete rlong finishing straight, but from 4.5 to 1.5 there will be a few tricky corners and this being the first - and an easy - day means that most will arrive very fresh, speeds will be very high and GC teams will all be looking to enter the section in front. In the end it will be a flat sprint and nothing should come in the way of the pure specialists.
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The Weather

Exposed roads the entire day you could say, and the peloton will be exposed to strong winds. That's right it's not an irony, the threat of echelons does exist already on the very first day of the race and everyone will be on their toes not to lose the race. Simultaneously, this will lead to the increase of tension overall which can cause crashes throughout the day with more ease. A dangerous, dangerous day...
From 140 to 70 kilometers to the finish there will be a crosswind from the left whilst coming back to Lille the riders are likely to also face some crosswinds - but now from the right. If the wind plays a role in the final sprint then it'll favour the pure fast men, as it may come as a tailwind.
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The Favourites
Crashes and splits can severely change the names that will be fighting for the stage win at the end of the day. The GC teams will be those who will pay the most attention and spend the most to stay in front all day long, but a few teams such as Lidl-Trek and Alpecin-Deceuninck have almost an entire flat-oriented team which can certainly be a match to the likes of UAE and Visma. However it's impossible to predict who may or may not be affected by these, if they happen. Since it is the first day of the Tour, a pan-flat sprint with no warm-up, then we can take a look at the leadouts - whilst in the following days we may look at the results themselves.
So it's fair to look at the main favourites and how their leadouts compare:
Jonathan Milan - Simone Consonni - Edward Theuns
Jasper Philipsen - Kaden Groves - Mathieu van der Poel - Jonas Rickaert
Tim Merlier - Bert van Lerberghe - Pascal Eenkhoorn
Jordi Meeus - Danny van Poppel - Mick van Dijke - Laurence Pithie
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Dylan Groenewegen - Luka Mezgec - Elmar Reinders - Luke Durbridge
Soren Waerenskjold - Magnus Cort Nielsen - Jonas Abrahamsen
Alberto Dainese - Marius Mayrhofer - Marco Haller
Biniam Girmay - Vito Braet - Laurenz Rex
Pascal Ackerman/Jake Stewart - Matis Louvel
Tobias Lund Andresen - Pavel Bittner
Phil Bauhaus - Fred Wright - Robert Stannard
Arnaud De Lie - Jasper de Buyst - Jarrad Drizners
Cees Bol - Davide Ballerini - Mike Teunissen - Yevgeniy Fedorov
Bryan Coquard - Alexis Renard
Arnaud Démare - Amaury Capiot - Clément Venturini
Furthermore we should see a few other men participating in the sprint. Don't look towards non-sprinters to finish at the top though, as despite the wind, the stage continues to be perfectly flat. Marijn van den Berg, Axel Laurance, Paul Penhoët, Ivan García Cortina, Émilien Jeannière... Who knows, maybe even Wout van Aert.
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Prediction Tour de France 2025 stage 1:
*** Jonathan Milan, Jordi Meeus, Jasper Philipsen
** Tim Merlier, Soren Waerenskjold, Alberto Dainese
* Dylan Groenewegen, Biniam Girmay, Alberto Dainese, Jake Stewart, Pascal Ackermann, Phil Bauhaus, Arnaud De Lie, Arnaud Démare
** Tim Merlier, Soren Waerenskjold, Alberto Dainese
* Dylan Groenewegen, Biniam Girmay, Alberto Dainese, Jake Stewart, Pascal Ackermann, Phil Bauhaus, Arnaud De Lie, Arnaud Démare
Pick: Jonathan Milan
How: Regular bunch sprint
Original: Rúben Silva
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Rúben SilvaEditor-in-Chief
A founding contributor to CyclingUpToDate since its launch in January 2022, Ruben Silva has played a central role in shaping the site’s editorial direction and long-term growth. Before joining the project, he built his experience through independent blogging at Echelons Hub and by producing race previews for Ciclismo Internacional, developing a strong analytical voice rooted in daily engagement with professional cycling.
Beyond editorial work, he has been closely involved in the expansion and coordination of CyclingUpToDate’s wider network, helping establish and support sister platforms across multiple languages. This includes ongoing collaboration with CiclismoAlDia (Spanish), CiclismoAtual (Portuguese), WielrennenUpToDate (Dutch), and RadsportAktuell (German), contributing to a shared editorial vision and consistent international coverage.
He also helps oversee editorial governance across the network, setting standards for accuracy and consistency and coordinating updates or corrections when needed.
Originally from the Porto metropolitan area in Portugal, he holds a bachelor’s degree in Geography. His path into cycling journalism was shaped not through formal media training, but through independent reporting, community engagement, and sustained on-the-ground involvement in the sport.
Over the course of his career, he has conducted approximately 100 interviews across road cycling and cyclocross, ranging from one-to-one conversations and online formats to press conferences and on-site pre- and post-race coverage. His interviews include leading riders, team managers, and prominent figures within cycling media: Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, Joao Almeida and Tom Pidcock; managers like Patrick Lefevere and Joxean Matxin; and YouTube personality Bryan Kennedy (BKXC)...
Within 18 months of launch, he helped grow CyclingUpToDate’s English-language platform into one of the most-read cycling news websites, built entirely from the ground up. As both a professional journalist and lifelong cycling enthusiast, his focus remains on delivering accurate, timely, and well-contextualized coverage.
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- many people advise him to grow slowly and rather do giro and/or vuelta instead of tdf. but i can totally understand that he is not satisfied with taking over once pogi declines, but instead beat him in his prime. so if he goes for tdf again, i‘m all for it. let‘s hope that pogi recovers soon!Ketterechts07-11-2026
- So gracious to offer something no-one would be prepared to pay for. The Giro is not the Tour and doesn’t command the same interest or attract the same “elite” (those willing to pay to be a part of something they consider has ego boosting potential). Roadside viewing will always largely remain free for everyone outside circuits. Introduction of a symbolic entrance to mountain climbs is worthy of exploration. Asking 1-2€ isn’t going to repulse real fans (most will spend 50-100€ on their outing that day all things included) but will prevent a portion of the total knobhead thrillseekers who will join in any large gathering as long as it’s free, just because they’re attracted to crowds, without which it it difficult for them to work up their anti-social behaviour.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- How is radio going to help when someone went over a cliff or bridge or off the roadside into a forest unnoticed and is laying there unconscious?Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- Yep, next we’ll be accusing F1 drivers of avoiding Le Mans.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- But on what is that opinion based? Are you holding him to a different standard than others? Are you saying he should do learn to like something he doesn’t Are you saying he hasn’t achieved enough Are you saying he pretends to be better than his results? It’s actually a really strange opinion to oust if you consider it objectively or rationally. Try applying it to others or yourself by asking if not EVERYONE should then be doing more? Nobody in athletics or swimming gets criticism for not expanding their repertoire when a rival or someone else does. In fact, most who move to another event get accused of running from their rival. Opinions are boring, the reasons behind them are what count.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- for a medical chief to throw things like is just bad. There are already radios which were banned for spectacle. allow radios. Gps trackers are not a complete solutionabstractengineer07-11-2026
- Yeah man...PogiSloFans07-11-2026
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- I'm very glad he got the big late Quickstep Vuelta win and I hope he has a few left for Euskaltel-Euskadi.flyer07-11-2026
- My memories of Ivan Basso aren't good but I liked his sister Elisa ok.flyer07-11-2026
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