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PREVIEW | Tour de France 2023 stage 18 - Alps over, surviving sprinters have flat day as a reward
CyclingThursday, 20 July 2023 at 09:47
Preview. Jonas Vingegaard has virtually sealed the overall win at the Tour de France, now in the coming two days the sprinters will headline the days. Stage 18 will be the return to flat roads after many tough days.
Stage 18 will see the riders say goodbye to the Alps. They'll be heading north, and a stage between Môutiers and Bourg-en-Bresse will be a reward for the sprinters who got through the main mountains of the race.
Estimated start and finish times for Tour de France stage 18: 13:05-17:30CET
Stage 18: Môutiers - Bourg-en-Bresse, 186 kilometers
The day is rather simple and without too much to analyze. There are a few hilltops in the middle section of the stage, however none are too difficult and should see the teams pushing the pace. The final 80 kilometers are flat, without any meaningful ascent.
It will all come down to the sprint. There will be roundabouts with 4.7, 3.3 and 2.6 kilometers to go. It will be fast into the 1.5-kilometer mark where there will be a sharp left hander, around the 1 kilometer mark the riders turn right slightly, the final 800 meters will be the final straight on flat roads.
Stage 18 Finale
The Weather
Map Tour de France 2023 stage 18
Hot temperatures almost into the 30 degrees and a northern breeze. It's not favourable for a breakaway. The sprint however will see a tailwind.
The Favourites
Jasper Philipsen - Nothing points towards Philipsen not being the man to beat. Whilst a few sprinters have abandoned the race, the Belgian remained solid and saved his legs as much as possible throughout the mountains. With his leadout almost intact and Mathieu van der Poel still on support duties, Philipsen holds no pressure but could win his fifth bunch sprint of the race.
Dylan Groenewegen - Team Jayco AlUla are one of the few other teams with full interest to control the breakaway. A team of rouleurs, Groenewegen still holds chances of winning and this is a good opportunity, a suiting stage with a tailwind finale. With some leadouts and teams missing in the final kilometers it should be less chaotic, the launch of Luka Mezgec could have him finally beat Jasper Philipsen.
Jumbo - Visma - The yellow jersey is, we can say, secure. Hence, tensions will be lower, there won't be fear of having Vingegaard losing time. The Worlds are the priority but without a stage win at this point, we should expect Wout van Aert to try and finally win. The stage isn't ideal for him, but he stands chances and with Christophe Laporte as a leadout it wouldn't come as a shock at all.
On such a finale pure power is crucial, the speeds will be very high in the finale. The likes of Alexander Kristoff and BORA - hansgrohe duo Jordi Meeus and Danny van Poppel are riders who I'd expect to see better than what has been the case so far. Although they do not fight for green jersey anymore, second and third in there Bryan Coquard and Mads Pedersen will naturally be in contention and also in chase of UCI points.
Biniam Girmay, Sam Welsford, Cees Bol, Peter Sagan, Luca Mozzato, Jasper de Buyst and Corbin Strong will be further cards to play in the finale, we can expect all of them to chase a result and try to benefit from good positioning or a bit of luck to try and take a meaningful win.
Prediction Tour de France 2023 stage 18:
*** Jasper Philipsen
** Dylan Groenewegen, Wout van Aert
* Mads Pedersen, Biniam Girmay, Bryan Coquard, Alexander Kristoff, Sam Welsford, Jordi Meeus
Pick: Jasper Philipsen
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