PREVIEW | Tour de France 2023 stage 11 - After brutal day, sprinters find last opportunity before reaching Alps

Preview. Stage 11 is the final sprint stage of the Tour de France for a while before the riders reach the hilly and mountainous terrain. Into Moulins the riders will find a relatively hilly day, however it should be possible to control the race.

Stage 11 of the Tour de France will see a little bit of that rolling climb trend, but the start is flat, and the route into Moulins shouldn't be hard enough to prevent a bunch sprint from taking place. The stage will have two climbs early on which will make it a tad more difficult than the average day on the bike, one of the climbs being a 13.1-kilometer long climb at almost 4% average gradient.

Estimated start and finish times for Tour de France stage 11: 13:05-17:20CET

Not one where the pace should be very high however, unless the breakaway is still being created. If so then there could be a strong group going up the road, the roads that follow won't ever be pan-flat, it's a rolling day in the Massif Central. There is a 1.7-kilometer hilltop at 5.1% which then summits with 61 kilometers to go.

The last 25 kilometers will be easier, with a bit of descending, it will be a fast run-up into town. The finale won't be too technical too, there isn't any corner where the riders will really have to break, there's a bridge crossing with 2 kilometers to go and then the finishing straight is 1.1 kilometers long.

The Weather

Some western wind, moderately felt, it will be mostly a cross-headwind throughout the first part of the day, however the final 65 kilometers will see a slight tailwind, this will ultimately favour a breakaway but sprinter teams will know they must keep the gap small throughout the day. The finishing straight will have some crosswind.

The Favourites

Jasper Philipsen - The question lies on him. Alpecin remains strong and confident, despite having a good chance Mathieu van der Poel sacrificed himself in Limoges for Philipsen, and today he hit the front again to pace. The team is all in for the Belgian, he will be the man to beat because his positioning and leadout are brilliant and in the sprint itself he carries incredible speed.

The amount of climbing in the day could see a few riders struggle, at least lose some legs before the finale. Fabio Jakobsen and Caleb Ewan have lost 34 minutes today after losing contact with the peloton right from the start. These are not good signs and specially with a few hilltops tomorrow they may struggle, before reaching a big block of mountain days. Phil Bauhaus for example should also wish for a conservative ride over the climbs, but will be a safer option.

On the opposite side you have Dylan Groenewegen, who was a very good surprise in Limoges. If he climbed well there then these hilltops will do nothing to him, the high-speed finale is good for him and with a few sprinters gone, Jayco AlUla could do well here. We have Mads Pedersen also motivated after a big win, Biniam Girmay who will have his say if he nails his positioning, and of course the question on whether Jumbo-Visma will sprint or not, Wout van Aert and Christophe Laporte would both be outsiders here.

BORA - hasngrohe may opt with both Danny van Poppel and Jordi Meeus, certainly the latter will be the option since van Poppel's leadout skills could provide the team with a better chance of succeeding. We have Bryan Coquard who still sits second in the points classification, and fast sprinters such as Sam Welsford and Alexander Kristoff who could on their best day fight for the win too. Luca Mozzato, Peter Sagan and Corbin Strong will be further outsiders.

Prediction Tour de France 2023 stage 11:

*** Jasper Philipsen
** Dylan Groenewegen, Mads Pedersen, Caleb Ewan
* Phil Bauhaus, Wout van Aert, Biniam Girmay, Fabio Jakobsen, Jordi Meeus, Bryan Coquard, Alexander Kristoff, Sam Welsford

Pick: Jasper Philipsen