PREVIEW | Giro d'Italia 2025 stage 12 - Can Visma finally take victory in a bunch sprint?

The Corsa Rosa is the first Grand Tour of the season and this year it will include a start in a nation that will for the first time in it's history host a Grand Tour, Albania; and also several mountain stages in it's second half whilst the first half will feature some tricky stages including one that goes through a lot of the Strade Bianche course. We preview stage 12.

The sprinters may have it their way once again on the 12th day of the race. From Modena to Viadana there aren't many obstacles, and it should be an important day in the fight for the Maglia Ciclamino.

There are a few climbs, this certainly isn't the pan-flat simple day the fast men hope for, but overall they are far from the finish and they aren't steep enough to create serious damage. The final hour of racing will be quite fast and simple into Viadana, although the organizers put in a nasty turn with only 350 meters to go which can make a lot of difference in the final sprint.

We will have some strong southwestern wind and this will come as a danger for the peloton. Early in the day sure, there will be headwinds and this won't make a break formation easy or too appetizing... But after the first intermediate sprint - 113Km to go - the direction changes completely and besides the big amount of descending, the flat roads will mostly have a headwind into Viadana. This means very high speeds and it will make it hard for the peloton to chase, it will have to be very careful. GC teams will have to be cautious as there are some crosswind sections where splits can occur.

Big Favourites - To me there are four names that stand out and they won't come as a surprise really. Kaden Groves was the undisputed victor of the past bunch sprint and likely the big favourite this time around as well as he really showed great speed and the hils shouldn't come as much of a concern. Alpecin have a team fully dedicated to his cause, which rival teams can't really say.

We've got Mads Pedersen who missed out on the stage to Napoli due to his high-speed crash, it will be interesting to see how he fares in this pure flat sprint, but he can certainly take his fourth win - although the leadout isn't luxurious and, honestly, he has been spending a lot more than his rivals. Casper van Uden was the rider who won the first bunch sprint and he will be a natural threat because of it; whilst Olav Kooij is the fourth - although this will largely depend on Wout van Aert's positioning struggles, and if they affect Visma's leadout.

Milan Fretin and Matteo Moschetti are in my opinion the two riders outside of these who have the speed to take the win here, whilst the likes of Paul Magnier and Sam Bennett can certainly surprise and take a victory that would be important for both of them.

Max Kanter, Giovanni Lonardi, Corbin Strong, Matevz Govekar, Orluis Aular, Maikel Zijlaard, Luca Mozzato and Filippo Fiorelli are other sprinters to take into consideration here, with them hoping for different kinds of racing in order for the stage to favour their chances.

However this is a day where the breakaway has potential to win, this is because of what I mentioned above - the wind. The peloton has to keep the gap at all times below 2 minutes, and there must be serious collaboration between all teams that are interested.

In the breakaway's case, they have to take it calmly until the direction change, and then begin to seriously push on from there on. This is because if they can average around 50Km/h for the final 100 kilometers, it will force the peloton to ride an almost unsustainable speed to be able to make the catch. Some riders have the experience and know how to guide a breakaway group in this way, and in Napoli you saw this very clearly with the modest Taco van der Hoorn and Enzo Paleni almost stealing the spotlight.

Both will be under eye, but they are only a few of the possible opportunists for the day. I would also consider: Stefano Oldani, Dries de Bondt, Andrea Vendrame, Owain Doull, Kasper Asgreen, Kevin Geniets, Joshua Tarling, Marco Frigo, Jon Barrenetxea, Lorenzo Milesi, Mirco Maestri, Christian Scaroni and Martin Marcellusi.

*** Kaden Groves, Olav Kooij
** Mads Pedersen, Casper van Uden, Milan Fretin
* Matteo Moschetti, Max Kanter, Paul Magnier, Giovanni Lonardi, Sam Bennett, Orluis Aular, Maikel Zijlaard

Pick: Kaden Groves

How: Regular bunch sprint