OPINION | Why you can’t write off Primoz Roglic at the 2025 Tour de France

There was a time not long ago when Primoz Roglic looked destined to win the Tour de France. In 2020, he led the race for almost two weeks, only to lose yellow on the final time trial to a young Tadej Pogacar. That defeat was dramatic and cruel, but it did not spell the end of Roglic’s ambitions. Five years on, however, many believe that moment was his one true shot, and that his time has passed.

Now 35, Roglic will line up at the 2025 Tour de France with few outside his team believing he can challenge for the yellow jersey. Pogacar appears to be operating on a different plane, and Jonas Vingegaard has proven himself to be the only rider capable of consistently challenging him.

Throw in the rise of Remco Evenepoel and the emergence of names like Joao Almeida, and recent Giro winner Simon Yates, and Roglic suddenly finds himself slipping down the GC hierarchy in the eyes of the public.

And yet, to write him off completely is to ignore both his past and the unique rhythms of Grand Tour racing. Because while Roglic may no longer be one the main favourites, history suggests he should never be discounted.

Roglic’s build-up to this year’s Tour has been anything but smooth. His Giro d’Italia campaign ended in frustration, crashing out on Stage 16 after losing time earlier in the race, in a campaign once again marred by hitting the deck. He had looked solid, if unspectacular, in the first week, most notably finishing just a second behind time trial specialist Joshua Tarling on Stage 2, a sign that his form wasn’t far off.

Roglic left the Giro without a win or a positive feeling, but also without any serious long-term injury, a key distinction as he now turns his attention to the Tour de France next week.

Despite the noise, one stat stands out: Roglic has raced two Grand Tours in a season on five occasions. Only once, in 2022, when he crashed out of both the Tour and Vuelta, did he fail to win one of the grand tours he started.

-            In 2019, he was third at the Giro, then won the Vuelta.

-            In 2020, he lost the Tour in heartbreaking fashion but bounced back to win the Vuelta.

-            In 2021, he DNF’d the Tour but again won the Vuelta.

-            In 2024, history repeated: he abandoned the Tour, then stormed to a fourth Vuelta title.

-            Now in 2025, he’s abandoned the Giro. Can he repeat the pattern?

The answer may depend more on survival than attacking. Roglic doesn’t need to be the best rider in the race to reach the podium. He just needs to be there in the final week when others fade, something he’s done many times before.

It’s hard to talk about Roglic without mentioning crashes. They’ve punctuated his career at cruel moments, 2021’s Tour exit, the fall at the 2022 Vuelta, and this year’s Giro among them. But what’s remarkable is not the number of crashes, but how often he returns stronger. There is no rider in the current peloton with a better record of winning after a setback.

His Giro crash this May was frustrating, yes, but not devastating. There were no broken bones. No season-ending injury. Roglic was already back on his bike just days later. If anything, the forced early exit may have bought him a few extra weeks of recovery and fine-tuning ahead of the Tour.

Let’s be clear: I agree that it’s unlikely Primoz Roglic wins the 2025 Tour de France. But there’s a big difference between not winning and not being relevant.

If Pogacar and Vingegaard mark each other too tightly, a rider like Roglic could capitalise. If Evenepoel struggles with consistency across three weeks, as he has done in previous grand tours, Roglic might leapfrog him. If the crashes and chaos of Grand Tour racing strike again, he could be the last man standing. That’s how the Tour works.

Roglic didn’t leave Jumbo-Visma to quietly fade into the background. He joined Red Bull – BORA - hansgrohe for leadership, for freedom, and for one last shot at the Tour. That ambition hasn’t changed.

This isn’t a rider going through the motions. It’s one who continues to train, to prepare meticulously, and to target races with purpose. His 2024 Vuelta victory reminded the world of what he can do when fit and focused. The Giro was a bump in the road, but the Tour remains the big goal, always has been.

It’s tempting to lump Roglic in with other great riders who just missed out on the Tour. But he’s not quite there yet. He has one more shot, one more July, and maybe, just maybe, one more surprise. More than anything, I want to see him finish the race!

No, Primoz Roglic probably won’t win the 2025 Tour de France.

But write him off? Count him out from the podium?

Not a chance.