There was a time not long ago when Primoz Roglic looked
destined to win the Tour de France. In 2020, he led the race for almost two
weeks, only to lose yellow on the final time trial to a young Tadej Pogacar.
That defeat was dramatic and cruel, but it did not spell the end of Roglic’s
ambitions. Five years on, however, many believe that moment was his one true
shot, and that his time has passed.
Now 35, Roglic will line up at the 2025 Tour de France with
few outside his team believing he can challenge for the yellow jersey. Pogacar
appears to be operating on a different plane, and Jonas Vingegaard has proven
himself to be the only rider capable of consistently challenging him.
Throw in the rise of Remco Evenepoel and the emergence of
names like Joao Almeida, and recent Giro winner Simon Yates, and Roglic
suddenly finds himself slipping down the GC hierarchy in the eyes of the
public.
And yet, to write him off completely is to ignore both his
past and the unique rhythms of Grand Tour racing. Because while Roglic may no
longer be one the main favourites, history suggests he should never be
discounted.
A rough 2025, but not a disastrous one
Roglic’s build-up to this year’s Tour has been anything but
smooth. His Giro d’Italia campaign ended in frustration, crashing out on Stage
16 after losing time earlier in the race, in a campaign once again marred by
hitting the deck. He had looked solid, if unspectacular, in the first week,
most notably finishing just a second behind time trial specialist Joshua
Tarling on Stage 2, a sign that his form wasn’t far off.
Roglic left the Giro without a win or a positive feeling,
but also without any serious long-term injury, a key distinction as he now
turns his attention to the Tour de France next week.
The pattern of Grand Tour redemption
Despite the noise, one stat stands out: Roglic has raced two
Grand Tours in a season on five occasions. Only once, in 2022, when he crashed
out of both the Tour and Vuelta, did he fail to win one of the grand tours he
started.
-
In 2019, he was third at the Giro, then won the
Vuelta.
-
In 2020, he lost the Tour in heartbreaking
fashion but bounced back to win the Vuelta.
-
In 2021, he DNF’d the Tour but again won the
Vuelta.
-
In 2024, history repeated: he abandoned the
Tour, then stormed to a fourth Vuelta title.
-
Now in 2025, he’s abandoned the Giro. Can he
repeat the pattern?
The answer may depend more on survival than attacking.
Roglic doesn’t need to be the best rider in the race to reach the podium. He
just needs to be there in the final week when others fade, something he’s done
many times before.
Staying on his bike
It’s hard to talk about Roglic without mentioning crashes.
They’ve punctuated his career at cruel moments, 2021’s Tour exit, the fall at
the 2022 Vuelta, and this year’s Giro among them. But what’s remarkable is not
the number of crashes, but how often he returns stronger. There is no rider in
the current peloton with a better record of winning after a setback.
His Giro crash this May was frustrating, yes, but not
devastating. There were no broken bones. No season-ending injury. Roglic was
already back on his bike just days later. If anything, the forced early exit
may have bought him a few extra weeks of recovery and fine-tuning ahead of the
Tour.
Crashes have marred Roglic's grand tours on multiple occasions
Let’s be clear: I agree that it’s unlikely Primoz Roglic
wins the 2025 Tour de France. But there’s a big difference between not winning
and not being relevant.
If Pogacar and Vingegaard mark each other too tightly, a
rider like Roglic could capitalise. If Evenepoel struggles with consistency
across three weeks, as he has done in previous grand tours, Roglic might
leapfrog him. If the crashes and chaos of Grand Tour racing strike again, he
could be the last man standing. That’s how the Tour works.
Read also
Roglic didn’t leave Jumbo-Visma to quietly fade into the
background. He joined Red Bull – BORA - hansgrohe for leadership, for freedom,
and for one last shot at the Tour. That ambition hasn’t changed.
This isn’t a rider going through the motions. It’s one who
continues to train, to prepare meticulously, and to target races with purpose.
His 2024 Vuelta victory reminded the world of what he can do when fit and
focused. The Giro was a bump in the road, but the Tour remains the big goal,
always has been.
A final thought
It’s tempting to lump Roglic in with other great riders who
just missed out on the Tour. But he’s not quite there yet. He has one more
shot, one more July, and maybe, just maybe, one more surprise. More than
anything, I want to see him finish the race!
No, Primoz Roglic probably won’t win the 2025 Tour de
France.
But write him off? Count him out from the podium?
Not a chance.
Fin MajorCycling Journalist
Fin Major is a UK-based writer at CyclingUpToDate and has been part of the team since 2024. He is the site’s main writer for FAQs and evergreen explainers and has written around 2,000 pieces for the platform. Alongside this work, he focuses on in-depth analysis and covers the biggest races on the calendar, including the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and La Vuelta a España, providing clear context around performance trends, tactics, and key storylines.
In his reporting, Fin uses reputable data sources such as ProCyclingStats for results, statistics, and historical context. He places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. Outside of writing, Fin is an active cyclist, which supports his practical understanding of the sport and its demands.
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