"One bad day for Tadej Pogacar and we will have a fight on our hands" - Philippa York doesn't rule Jonas Vingegaard out of 2024 Tour de France just yet

With the 2024 Tour de France reaching it's second rest day, the question of whether or not the race has already been won by Tadej Pogacar seems to have split the cycling community.

On the one hand, a three-minute lead with Pogacar in his current form might look unassailable, however, with Jonas Vingegaard the man lurking behind waiting to pounce and potentially, just one piece of bad luck all it would take for the momentum to completely shift, the defending Tour de France champion can't be ruled out for a third successive Maillot Jaune triumph.

For former Tour de France King of the Mountains winner Philippa York, the race is definitely still all to play for. "Visma burned through their riders and then unleashed Matteo Jorgenson at the foot of the last climb," York recalls of a thrilling stage 15 in her column for Cycling News. "The 40 minutes that followed were spectacular, the young American’s style reminiscent of Miguel Indurain as the GC group hung on to his slipstream. Almeida wisely let go immediately. The others with more at stake tried for longer, but when Vingegaard sensed his teammate was slowing with just over 10km remaining he attacked and began the Yellow Jersey test."

"At first, Pogacar looked uncomfortable – not a grimace but mouth open and probably wondering how long Vingegaard could keep up that pace. Sometimes you watch riders going uphill and there’s no sense of speed. This was not one of them. This was properly fast and only achievable to the very few ultra-talented climbers," York continues. "But gradually the edge came off Vingegaard’s rhythm and Pogacar knew he had things under control. A steeper section had his Visma rival out of the saddle just a little longer than usual, accompanied by a look back to check if it was hurting Pogacar enough. Pog read the body language, pounced and shot off up the road. Compared to the previous day he even appeared less stressed, only looking to be at his complete maximum going into the final kilometre. In contrast, Vingegaard looked like he was hurting all over."

Nevertheless, York can't completely rule out a stunning Vingegaard recovery in the final week. "Three minutes in arrears for a multiple Tour winner doesn’t mean it’s a foregone conclusion. Jonas Vingegaard said it himself, he had one of his best performances. It’s just that Pogacar had a better one. One bad day for Tadej and we will have a fight on our hands that will run all the way to Nice," York concludes her assessment.