“Jonas Vingegaard's blown them out of the water when they least expected” - Philippa York questions if there's anyway back for Vuelta rivals

Philippa York’s assessment of the stage 9 attack at Valdezcaray encapsulates a first week where the Team Visma | Lease a Bike leader has already shifted the shape of the 2025 Vuelta a Espana. “Jonas Vingegaard has blown them out of the water when they least expected it,” says the two-time former Vuelta runner-up.

What was supposed to be a cautious, attritional GC duel has instead become a showcase for a “new, dynamic Vingegaard” who, as York points out, “has turned up in Spain” intent on seizing opportunities rather than waiting passively for the race to come to him.

The pre-race theory was simple: Vingegaard would bide his time on rolling stages, only striking on the steepest mountain-top finishes. Instead, his early victory on stage 2 immediately suggested a different approach. That impression was confirmed at Valdezcaray, where he attacked in what many expected to be a stalemate.

“The two big days in Andorra didn’t present any opportunities so he stayed calm, followed Almeida and lulled UAE and everyone else into a false sense of security,” York explains. “Then, when everyone thought the climb to Valdezcaray on stage 9 would see a GC stalemate, he pounced and left UAE wondering what happened.”

Almeida, she notes, “wasn’t paying enough attention and wasn’t where he needed to be – directly on the Dane’s back wheel.” The result was a long chase that cost precious energy. “On such a fast climb he likely would have been fine on Vingegaard’s wheel. He probably wouldn’t have won the sprint to the line, though. The new dynamic Vingegaard is pretty fast.”

If Almeida’s strength has been clarified, UAE’s broader strategy is still riddled with contradictions. Juan Ayuso, once touted as an equal leader, has slipped almost 22 minutes down, leaving York to observe that “the question of who is the team leader at UAE Team Emirates has been resolved fairly early in the race.”

But the Spaniard’s new role isn’t necessarily helping Almeida. “If he can do a very impressive ride to win a mountain stage then the question is why is he allowed to then sit up at the bottom of the climbs when he could be of help?” York asks. “It doesn’t make any sense for a rider of his calibre to do that because he has the talent to be in the GC group, and when they are racing someone like Vingegaard, the more support Almeida has the better.”

Visma, meanwhile, appear to have learned quickly. York suggests they have already recognised “the possible scenarios and need Sepp Kuss prepared to cover those UAE tactics from now on.”

While Vingegaard and Almeida appear the main Red Jersey challengers, the chase for third is chaotic. “There are several riders suffering in the GC group but still believing that a podium spot can be theirs,” York writes. Lidl–Trek’s hopes with Giulio Ciccone took a hit when he was “badly burned on stage 9,” and while Felix Gall and Tom Pidcock are both well placed, the Angliru on stage 13 “is going to be where they discover just where they are in the hierarchy.”

The margins remain razor-thin, with less than 90 seconds covering tenth place to sixteenth, and York sees opportunities for smaller climbers like Lorenzo Fortunato or Red Bull’s Jai Hindley and Giulio Pellizzari on the brutal ascents still to come. Egan Bernal and Matteo Jorgenson, too, are tipped as riders “that might be able to take advantage of any tactical moments to move up the top 10.”

The first week has already produced surprises — David Gaudu outsprinting Mads Pedersen and Torstein Traeen leading the race for Bahrain - Victorious. But the looming Angliru will provide the real sorting point.

For York, the overall picture is clear. UAE have questions to answer about their tactical structure, Almeida has little margin for error, and Vingegaard has shown he can win in more ways than one. “The day on stage 13 with the fearsome slopes of the Angliru will be the key moment of the second week,” she concludes. “Anything could still happen, but there is one thing for sure already. Jonas Vingegaard is going to hurt everyone.”