"If I think of a sprinter who can hold on to the finish I would say Kaden Groves" - Bruyneel predicts unusual Tour de France stage 11

Johan Bruyneel believes Stage 11 of the 2025 Tour de France presents a unique challenge, landing just after the first rest day and on the eve of the first big mountain test to Hautacam. With the stage beginning and ending in Toulouse and featuring seven small climbs in the closing kilometers, it tilts toward puncheurs, not pure sprinters.

Still, Bruyneel isn’t completely writing off the fast men. “If you look at the cumulative elevation gain of the stage, around 700 meters, it's very accessible for the sprinters, even more so considering they're coming from a rest day,” he said. “I assume that one of the sprinters' teams is going to try to control the race and that their sprinter can make it.”

The former US Postal sports director singles out one rider in particular. “If I think of a sprinter who can hold on to the finish I would say Kaden Groves. He's a solid rider who tends to perform better as the stages go by. But it's going to be tough.”

The climbs in the final 45 kilometers, including one with a 12.4% gradient at 9km from the finish, will be the deciding factor. That’s where Bruyneel sees riders like Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert coming into play. “Guys like Mathieu van der Poel or Wout van Aert, explosive riders, will probably be able to drop the sprinters.”

Van der Poel had an incredible first 10 days of the Tour, winning a stage, wearing the yellow jersey, and coming 700 metres away from winning in a 170km breakaway. If he is refreshed after the rest day, it could be perfect for him.

And while some might expect an attack from the yellow jersey, Bruyneel advises caution. “We'll see if they come together if Pogacar tries it there, I don't think it would be smart to do it.”