“If he arrives in Liège together with Tadej Pogacar...” – Expert outlines Paul Seixas’s best chance to shock the world at Liège-Bastogne-Liège

There is a scenario, however narrow, in which 19-year-old Paul Seixas can win Liège-Bastogne-Liège on debut. It does not involve dropping Tadej Pogacar. It does not rely on overpowering the race on the climbs. It hinges on something far more specific.

“If he arrives in Liège together with Pogacar and can win the sprint, that could be his opportunity,” Eurosport expert Karsten Migels explained when assessing the Frenchman’s chances. That one sentence frames the entire challenge facing Seixas on Sunday.

Migels’ wider assessment leaves little room for doubt over how the race is expected to unfold. “Pogacar is the absolute top favourite. Behind him, I see Evenepoel,” he said. “I expect the Slovenian to win, and if he attacks on the climbs, no one will be able to follow him. And then the competition won’t have any chance of bringing him back.”

It is a pattern that has defined recent editions of Liège-Bastogne-Liège. In both of his latest victories, Pogacar attacked on La Redoute and rode solo to the finish, unchallenged. That is the scenario everyone else must prevent.

While the spring Monuments earlier this season were framed around Mathieu van der Poel and Pogacar, the Ardennes shift the focus. Migels expects a different dynamic this time, with Remco Evenepoel and Seixas joining the conversation to form what is, on paper, a three-man race.

Evenepoel’s route to victory, in that context, is clearer. “Evenepoel has a very strong team, and if his teammates deliver him well to the final climbs, he can make the difference, for example on La Redoute,” Migels said. “With his time trial abilities, he would then be very difficult to catch again, even for Pogacar. That is probably his only chance.”

Yet even in that scenario, the Belgian faces a limitation. If the race comes back together late, the advantage swings straight back towards Pogacar.

Seixas’ rise has been one of the defining stories of the season. Second at Strade Bianche behind Pogacar, a dominant overall victory at the Itzulia Basque Country, and most recently his win at Flèche Wallonne have pushed him rapidly into the spotlight.

Migels was clear in his praise. “That was an incredible performance from Seixas. Decathlon rode a very strong race, even though, with an average age of 23, they had the youngest team in the field. They always kept him well positioned, and he finished it off perfectly, with a certain composure and ease.”

But the conclusion remains cautious. “I still believe it will be difficult for him against a Pogacar or an Evenepoel. Especially against Pogacar. He could maybe finish second, but what he has achieved at 19 is already very impressive.”

That balance between admiration and realism defines Seixas’ position heading into Liège. The talent is unquestioned. The level is proven. The question is whether he can apply it over 260 kilometres against the strongest riders in the world.

One factor that could shape the outcome is the support around each contender in the decisive phase of the race. “Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe and UAE Emirates - XRG will likely control the race, depending on how the early phase develops,” Migels explained. “In reality, the race truly begins at La Redoute. From there, it’s not far to the finish.”

That is where positioning becomes critical, and where Seixas may face his biggest challenge. “His team needs to be there with him to protect him, otherwise it will be difficult,” Migels added. “Pogacar will dominate like he has in recent races and win.”

For Seixas, then, the equation is simple, even if the execution is not. He must survive the race when it explodes on the climbs. He must stay with Pogacar when the decisive moves come. And then, if the opportunity presents itself, he must finish the job in a sprint.

It is a narrow path. It requires everything to fall into place. And it demands that Pogacar, for once, does not ride away alone. But it is a path that exists.

And for a 19-year-old already redefining expectations, that may be all that matters.