Hitting the famous Malibu climbs
The dynamic of the race will change entirely once the riders turn right off the coast and head up Mulholland Highway into the Santa Monica Mountains.
"If I made the course, if I was designing the course, you would have to do some of the big climbs in Malibu," Gaimon noted. He describes this first major test as a solid 5% to 6% climb that takes about 20 minutes for the top professionals. "That'll be a spot to, you know, send some of the guys home who aren't quite ready for the big race."
After navigating the picturesque ridge of Mulholland, the route reportedly drops down a steep, fast descent on Kanan Road to enter a challenging local circuit: Rock Store. Gaimon predicts the organizers will have the riders complete about four laps of this steady 6% to 7% climb.
"Having circuits, of course, makes it more fan-friendly," he added. "That's where the Cookie Corner is going to be. That's going to be on Rock Store. I'm gonna be there shirtless and handing out cookies to whoever got dropped."
Once the Rock Store laps are complete, the race heads east back toward the city. After a flat, wide-open tactical section along Ventura Boulevard, the peloton will face one of the ugliest surprises of the day to get back onto the paved section of Mulholland Drive: the Haywenhurst climb.
"By now we are quite late in the race. It's probably been hot. Legs are tired," Gaimon warned. He describes Haywenhurst as eight minutes of pure grinding, featuring punishing sections of 14% to 15%. "A lot of guys are just going to sit up here and give up. If you're in the front group, this is a place to make your move... If you're solo at the top of this, you're going to regret it."
From there, the surviving favorites will cruise along Mulholland, passing the homes of celebrities like Eddie Murphy and Quentin Tarantino, before enjoying a gorgeous descent directly into the heart of Hollywood near the Hollywood Bowl.
Carapaz won the 2021 Olympic Games road race, ahead of Van Aert and Pogacar
Olympic tactics and a Griffith Park finale
While many fans might expect a finish at the iconic Hollywood sign, Gaimon explained that the roads there are simply too tight for a major race and TV crews. Instead, the leaked course finishes at the nearby Griffith Observatory.
This grand finale features a sharp, explosive four-to-five-minute climb. "It is a hilly finale, but it's not Alpe d'Huez. We're also not talking like Flèche Wallonne," Gaimon detailed. "It's steep. You don't want to be a sprinter trying to hang on this."
Looking at the demands of the leaked course, Gaimon sees it favoring explosive classic specialists over pure climbers.
"If they held this race today with the riders currently as they are, I would say I'd put the money on [Mathieu] Van der Poel and Tadej [Pogacar] in second," Gaimon predicted. "I really don't see any climbs where Tadej can put a ton of time on Van der Poel, where he can get rid of him. I see a lot of places where you can soften him up, where you can hurt him... but it's gonna come back on Mulholland."