"He simply crushes everyone" - Matti Breschel analyses the duel between Mathieu van der Poel and Mads Pedersen at E3 Saxo Classic

The duel between Mads Pedersen and Mathieu van der Poel returns to the E3 Saxo Classic after last year’s showdown. Back then, the Dane fought for the win until he cracked on the iconic Oude Kwaremont, where the Dutchman launched the decisive move that carried him solo to the line. Pedersen had to settle for second place.

Both riders will line up again this Friday for a race of roughly 209 kilometres featuring hallmark climbs such as the Paterberg, the Taaienberg, and the Oude Kwaremont itself.

This edition introduces a tweak compared to 2025: the bunch will tackle both the Taaienberg and the Oude Kwaremont twice, albeit from different sides, adding an extra layer of difficulty to an already selective race.

The E3 Saxo Classic is widely viewed as a dress rehearsal for the Tour of Flanders, sharing many of its cobbled sectors and climbs with the Belgian Monument. Yet it is far from mere preparation—its hardness is beyond doubt.

Former rider and now analyst Matti Breschel puts it plainly: “It’s one of the toughest races on the entire calendar. It’s called mini-Flanders, but all the climbs are compressed, one after another.” He adds: “It’s a brutal race and very hard to win.”

Another hallmark of this Classic is that the race typically blows apart long before the finale, something expected again this year. “It’s going to be a great race, a real fistfight. Aggression gets rewarded, so they’ll race from far out,” Breschel explains.

The key point could be the Taaienberg: “The finale starts relatively early, around the Taaienberg, and before that there’s a kind of pre-finale. From there, anything can happen.”

Pedersen’s form was evident at the recent Milano–Sanremo, though his build-up raises some questions. “I think he’s very motivated, if I know him well. But he has to be realistic, because he’s gone a while without logging enough kilometres,” says Breschel.

That factor could shape his performance as the race wears on: “He may struggle as the kilometres tick by, though he’s so good you can never rule him out.” As a result, his approach may differ from usual: “Maybe he’ll have to race more defensively than he’s used to, but he’ll surely be in the thick of it.”

The top favourite remains Van der Poel, who showcased his superiority last year. “I think he’s going to win. It’s a race that suits him perfectly and he’s writing his name into history,” Breschel claims.

Even so, the Dutchman showed a few recent doubts: “In Sanremo we saw him a bit on the limit at times, he showed a touch of weakness. We’ll see.” Still, his competitive ceiling remains decisive: “If he hits his best level, he simply crushes everyone.”