"He is often at his best in the third week" - Visma look to save best for last at the Tour de France
CyclingThursday, 16 July 2026 at 11:30
The Tour de France's battle for the yellow jersey has, since entering the mountains, a one-sided game. Tadej Pogacar has a firm hold of the race lead and Jonas Vingegaard at first appeared to be the only rider able to challenge him in any way. Is this still the case? Team Visma | Lease a Bike are now waiting for the stages that suit the Dane the best.
Visma expect Vingegaard to be stronger on the second half of the Tour
The track record supports this: Jonas Vingegaard is a very consistent rider, and often performs better against his rivals towards the end of Grand Tours. In the 2023 Tour de France, it was the lack of this consistency that cost Tadej Pogacar the chance to win the Tour on the Col de la Loze.
But even in recent Grand Tours, Vingegaard has often shown his best performances in the final week of the three-week races. Mont Ventoux saw him put the Slovenian on the ropes last summer; whilst at the Giro d'Italia he looked more and more untouchable as the race went on.
The initial diagnostic, heading into the second half of the Tour, is not positive: A 3:36-minute deficit. If nothing out of the ordinary happens and Pogacar does not experience bad days, there is virtually nothing that can be done against him. But professional cycling is packed with variables, and he is also the one with everything to lose.
“We will keep fighting until Paris. Pogacar is better so far, but we are still looking upwards,” Visma sports director Marc Reef shared with De Telegraaf. “Jonas always needs some time to grow into a Grand Tour. We saw that in the Giro d’Italia as well.”
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Defending second place not much of a concern
The Col du Tourmalet saw Vingegaard lose 30 seconds to Pogacar, but at the same time show a much superior level to that of his other rivals. Whilst that time gap was later cut; and on stage 10 he lost some time in the explosive hilltop finish at Le Lioran, Reef does not put defending second place as a priority.
“We are taking everything into account, but we are confident that Jonas can hold them off. Do we still believe in winning the Tour? We are still going for it.”
For that, the long climbs will come in handy. This weekend, mountain stages towards Le Markstein and the Plateau de Solaison will provide two more very difficult tests where all riders will need to be at their very best. But ultimately, all builds towards the mammoth stage 20, where a bad day can spell disaster into any rider's overall ambitions.
“We are mainly looking forward to the longer climbs. We know from Jonas that these climbs suit him better," Reef warns. "And again, relatively speaking, he is often at his best in the third week.”
In 2022, it was on the Col du Galibier - the same side being climbed this year - where Tadej Pogacar's efforts led him to fully crack on the Col du Granon later on. With a similar, yet more difficult profile this time around, Vingegaard's hopes can remain alive of a similar scenario taking place.
Rúben SilvaEditor-in-Chief
A founding contributor to CyclingUpToDate since its launch in January 2022, Ruben Silva has played a central role in shaping the site’s editorial direction and long-term growth. Before joining the project, he built his experience through independent blogging at Echelons Hub and by producing race previews for Ciclismo Internacional, developing a strong analytical voice rooted in daily engagement with professional cycling.
Beyond editorial work, he has been closely involved in the expansion and coordination of CyclingUpToDate’s wider network, helping establish and support sister platforms across multiple languages. This includes ongoing collaboration with CiclismoAlDia (Spanish), CiclismoAtual (Portuguese), WielrennenUpToDate (Dutch), and RadsportAktuell (German), contributing to a shared editorial vision and consistent international coverage.
He also helps oversee editorial governance across the network, setting standards for accuracy and consistency and coordinating updates or corrections when needed.
Originally from the Porto metropolitan area in Portugal, he holds a bachelor’s degree in Geography. His path into cycling journalism was shaped not through formal media training, but through independent reporting, community engagement, and sustained on-the-ground involvement in the sport.
Over the course of his career, he has conducted approximately 100 interviews across road cycling and cyclocross, ranging from one-to-one conversations and online formats to press conferences and on-site pre- and post-race coverage. His interviews include leading riders, team managers, and prominent figures within cycling media: Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, Joao Almeida and Tom Pidcock; managers like Patrick Lefevere and Joxean Matxin; and YouTube personality Bryan Kennedy (BKXC)...
Within 18 months of launch, he helped grow CyclingUpToDate’s English-language platform into one of the most-read cycling news websites, built entirely from the ground up. As both a professional journalist and lifelong cycling enthusiast, his focus remains on delivering accurate, timely, and well-contextualized coverage.
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- Really sad that after what 6 years he is now trying to milk the injury for money. He scammed Israel Prem Tech for millions where he could not even win a UK 4rh cat race. Find it sad that such a great rider reduced to this.paultryan200216-07-2026
- Its known as courtesy not rules, tradition not laws.abstractengineer16-07-2026
- nobody dispute the accident even though it was largely due to him even after Poels had warned him. The problem is sticking to the false narrative that he was capable of winning the tdf for 5 years, the numbers were close etc even when he was getting dropped midway in races , trying to mislead everybodyabstractengineer16-07-2026
- He got lucky with Vuelta, TDF is a blood bath, even Jonas lost 2:30 in a stageabstractengineer16-07-2026
- The unwritten rule is probably to go for the win or not, not in between like UAE did. They pulled hard, keeping it in range, in order to sprint with Torito. Then they switched to the energy saving mode and got Ineos and Lidl-Trek to pull. What that effectively means is that they are helping the peloton against the breakaway without wanting to go for the win themselves, which is unsportsmanly. One theory is that Pogačar would have wanted to follow van der Poel, his eternal rival, but realised it wasn't worth it as he'd drag all the GC riders with him and spend his teammates. So he wanted to let van der Poel know that he could have been present in the fight for the win.
Rafionain-Glas16-07-2026 - There certainly are unwritten rules that should and are respected. However going for the win when when it's a fair fight ain't one of them..IMO. Hope Pog gets the win record, he already gifted one to a his team mate.Santiago16-07-2026
- 😀Hills3316-07-2026
- “There are also unwritten rules that should be respected” - it is a total BS. There is only one rule in cycling - whoever crosses the finish line first -> wins. (or who has lower cumulative time, most points - depending on type of race/tour)averagecyclist16-07-2026
- Chapeau to Wærenskjold. He’s not a big name but has quietly said he turned down the chance to ride for UAE as he didn’t want to promote the Emirates; similarly he declined to take part in the Al Ula Tour.”
Andrew16-07-2026 - Your proctologist called, he found your head.Andrew16-07-2026
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