“For Jonas Vingegaard, the Giro is a bigger challenge than the Vuelta” – Expert claims Corsa Rosa debut is Visma leader’s boldest gamble yet

Jonas Vingegaard is not choosing the safe road. By committing to the Giro d’Italia, the Visma leader is stepping into what one expert calls his boldest gamble yet – a race that could redefine his legacy, but also expose him more than ever.

The decision was made long before it was announced in La Nucia, but its meaning is only now becoming clear: Vingegaard is chasing history, aiming to join the tiny group of riders who have conquered all three Grand Tours, and doing it by taking on what is seen as a tougher test than the Vuelta.

“It was pretty obvious that the Danish rider was going to ride the Giro d'Italia, and that his aim was precisely to achieve those three overall victories in the three Grand Tours,” explains expert Javier Ares in his analysis of Visma’s planning on his YouTube channel. This is not just another box to tick. “He would be the eighth rider to achieve that feat in his palmares.”

Confirmation came from the team itself, which made it clear that the Giro and the Tour will be the backbone of their season. “That will be the Giro and the Tour, obviously, the team’s fundamental objectives for next season,” Ares stresses, recalling how naturally the announcement landed.

The dominant narrative already paints Vingegaard as the clear favourite for the Corsa Rosa, but Ares injects a note of caution. “Now everything seems very clear: nobody disputes that Vingegaard will be the super favourite… but when seasons are being planned, we cannot guarantee that Tadej Pogacar will be the rider he was last year, nor that Vingegaard will be the number one favourite.”

Time, he reminds, spares nobody. “The years go by and, although we are talking about two young riders in their prime, you cannot rule out that they might start a downward curve at some point.”

Even so, the bet is clear. “Jonas Vingegaard’s bet is clear: to try the Giro d'Italia, where he would be the favourite, but without ruling out the Tour de France at all.” For Ares, that is exactly why this move is not safe or conservative. It is a calculated risk.

The biggest unknown in the project is the absence that has shaken both the team and the market: the retirement of Simon Yates. “He has left the team slightly orphaned, a bit lame, so to speak, in terms of the support Vingegaard needs to try to attack his third Tour de France,” says Ares, admitting how hard it is to explain such a decisive departure.

Still, he does not talk in apocalyptic terms. “It does not look like the most powerful team, nor the one that has strengthened the most, but it is still a very powerful formation with big ambitions.”

Looking specifically at the Giro, one name stands out. “Davide Piganzoli will possibly be Vingegaard’s most important lieutenant at the Giro d'Italia,” Ares says of the young Italian, warning that the Dane will be “a little more exposed than he will be at the Tour de France.” Another layer of risk in what he sees as Vingegaard’s boldest move so far.

For Ares, this is the key point. The Giro is not a secondary option. “For Jonas Vingegaard, the Giro d'Italia is a greater challenge than the Vuelta a Espana.” In his eyes, choosing Italy is not the easy route, but the harder one.

Does that mean giving up on the Tour? No. “Is the Tour ruled out? No,” he answers directly. “We cannot look at the Tour de France as the only objective, we know there is a big favourite there.”

Visma’s wider aim, he argues, is about more than one jersey. “A team’s performance is not measured exclusively by victories; it is measured by presence, by being a protagonist in the race.”

Visma won 40 races last season. “That is neither good nor bad, but it is a long way from the 69 victories they achieved in 2023,” Ares notes. For him, the true gamble is not just about Vingegaard, but about restoring Visma’s authority.

“The nice challenge for Visma will be to be the best team of the year again when the season ends,” he says. Because cycling, like history, remembers not only those who win, but those who dominate.

In that context, the Giro d'Italia becomes the perfect stage for Vingegaard’s boldest gamble yet, not just to race, but to redefine his place in cycling history.