Experts analyze whether Juan Ayuso or Joao Almeida can win Vuelta: "It would be great if they took turns attacking Vingegaard"
Cycling
Can anyone take on Jonas Vingegaard at the 2025 Vuelta a Espana and prevent the expected outcome of the race? For the most part, it seems that the Dane's greatest challenge will be to find motivation to perform consistently over the three weeks. Then there should be no obstacles. Unless Vingegaard has an off day or another competitor rises up to compete at a similar level, the Spanish Grand Tour could see a relatively boring GC battle.
"I'd like to see a bit more competition," begins Jan Hermsen in Kop Over Kop podcast. "But I don't really believe in it. It's a bit like hoping against hope. There's little chance it will be a battle for the general classification."
Jeroen Vanbelleghem also sees Vingegaard as the favorite. "That's not difficult to say, but the Vuelta a España remains a strange Grand Tour. Especially if you've ridden the Tour de France. The question is how motivated you are, how strong you still are, and how you handle the heat... It's a different race after all."
The Dane was defeated by Tadej Pogacar for a second year in a row, this time without any hope of actually defeating the Slovenian. Could that leave a mark on Vingegaard's mentality? "It's possible that Vingegaard has become somewhat resigned after the Tour de France, but I don't think so either," Vanbelleghem estimates.
Ten summit finishes
As is typical for Vuelta a Espana, there will be a wide range of uphill arrivals, each one with a potential to shape up the general classification. Even Vingegaard could catch an off day, but how realistic is that?
"It's a course where you can be completely squeezed, but then Vingegaard is the rider least likely to be," Bobbie Traksel compares chances of other candidates for GC result. "We're convinced Vingegaard will be the winner. The presence of such a big rider often makes the battle for the overall victory less exciting."
The biggest threat should come from UAE duo Juan Ayuso & Joao Almeida. "Yes, those two together as leaders... I don't think it was the intention for them both to be leaders. But Pogacar isn't starting, and Ayuso will be replacing him. They both want to take their chances in a Grand Tour, but I rate Almeida a bit higher. It would be great if they took turns attacking Vingegaard."
Ondrej ZhasilCycling Journalist
Ondřej Zhasil is a cycling journalist at CyclingUpToDate and has been part of the team since 2023. He is based in Ostrava, the third-largest city in the Czech Republic, and covers professional cycling across the main UCI competitions, including the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and La Vuelta a España. A key focus of his work is startlist analysis and pre-race coverage, where he examines team selections, rider line-ups, and tactical scenarios ahead of major events.
Alongside WorldTour coverage, Ondřej has developed specific expertise in junior cycling and in racing across East Asia, including competitions in China and Japan. He also maintains a broad working knowledge of other disciplines and levels, including cyclocross, while continuing to expand his understanding of mountain bike racing.
Ondřej holds a bachelor’s degree in Mathematics and Physics, which supports his analytical, data-driven approach to performance and race analysis. In his reporting, he regularly uses ProCyclingStats for results, statistics, and historical context. He places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available.
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- I live in Maribor.PogiSloFans14-11-2026
- I live in Ljubljana and often go on trips in the surrounding area, where I frequently see young cyclists in 'Pogi Team' jerseys training, either alone or in groups. By simply motivating so many young people to take up cycling, Tadej has already achieved something truly significant.Velijo14-11-2026
- That's an excellent point. It's interesting that Vader came to that realization only after he learned that his contract wasn't going to be renewed.
santiagobenites14-11-2026 - Indeed! A reluctant gift maybe. Even more reluctant gift from Roglic! Tho I can’t see that Rog would have beaten Ving anyway.Lozza14-11-2026
- That really nasty crash in 2022 Liege must have played a big part - broken ribs, pneumothorax. You only have to look at his points tallies pre and post.Lozza14-11-2026
- Yeah, good luck getting tv and race organisers like ASO etc to part with their cash!Lozza14-11-2026
- 36 and Ineos have bought a rider on the downward slope. Bring back Dave and Rob who could manage the team. How are Ineos going to win a grand tour with people past their sell by date.paultryan200214-11-2026
- Mmmm would he be making these comments when he was on the richest team when riding. I think not i suspect. If we want money put into the sport we need sponsors who are prepared to put the money in. No disrespect but his team are 2nd or 3rd div in football terms with riders over the hill or 2nd string riders. If i was a sponsor i would be looking at what publicity am i getting back and Tudor really are just making up the numbers really.paultryan200214-11-2026
- I see (elsewhere) that Alaphilippe had more to say than what got relayed in this stub. Me: he was very good early but his latter third trajectory was the pits. His old boss did what he could (huffed and puffed) but Julian couldn't get his greatness back. Sometimes I wonder if crashes that didn't look like much changed the course of the rider.flyer14-11-2026
- I wouldn't classify it as a gift because the nasty consequences of taking it from Sepp would have been great and would persist and he knew it.flyer14-11-2026
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