DISCUSSION Tre Valli Varesine | Did Pogacar's main rivals give up before even trying?

The Italian autumn classic Tre Valli Varesine took place today, featuring a punchy terrain with a single categorized ascent (Montello, 2km à 5.1%) that was climbed 12 times. Tadej Pogacar promised organizers to ride this year after last year’s edition had to be cancelled due to heavy rains, and he fulfilled it.

Five riders went up the road immediately after the race began. Andrew August, Lorenzo Milesi, Kevin Colleoni, Mattia Bais and Davide Ballerini established the breakaway of the day, staying in front for more than half of the day while UAE controlled the bunch as expected.

With around 80km to go, the pace increased and the five men in front were caught. Egan Bernal was the first amongst the favourites to try it, launching an attack with 70km to go.

He stayed in front for a while, until Simmons and Milesi, who had been dropped earlier, joined him with around 30km to go. Pogacar and del Toro had stayed unusually quiet in peloton, but that changed when there were only 28km remaining.

It was del Toro who launched the attack, and only his teammate Pogacar and a surprisingly strong Victor Lafay could follow him. The three riders quickly caught Afonso Eulalio, who had attacked a bit earlier, and then the trio in the break, making it seven people in front.

Thie group didn’t last long together, as Pogacar started pulling and created a gap in a downhill section that ended up being decisive. Simmon tried to close it but he didn’t have the legs, and the rest of the group did not want to collaborate.

The Slovenian increased his lead steadily until it reached 1 minute and he maintained it with ease, winning in Varese for the second time and obtaining his 107th professional victory.

Behind him, Tom Pidcock attacked in the penultimate climb and was followed by a few riders, including Primoz Roglic and Isaac del Toro once again, but they were not coordinated enough and were engulfed by the peloton. The final sprint for the podium ended with 19-year-old Albert Withen Philipsen in second and Julian Alaphilippe in third.

Once the race finished, we asked some of our writers to share their thoughts and main takeaways about what happened today.

Classic Pogacar win right? I believed today UAE wanted to gift a win to Del Toro, but honestly the Mexican has won so much himself that he doesn't need gifts - and Jay Vine wasn't there in the end of the race. I believe this is why UAE let dangerous riders such as Quinn Simmons go up the road for example, and why they didn't attack early on as they usually do.

Still UAE was always going to win this race, Pogacar is virtually playing a game in easy mode if you could call it that, he could attack with 50 or 5 kilometers to go and no-one would be able to respond. He was here mostly over a promise he made last year after the race was cancelled due to bad weather, and he had no pressure to perform really, he's inbetween two big goals.

So he attacked downhill, seemingly in good fun, but with no-one being able to close the gap he just went. UAE pay him big bucks and the team won't just throw away a win if they can get it - besides the record they continue to build. Preview of Lombardia really, you will see him win with comfort, as he truly looks in his best form and showing no signs of fatigue.

I also believed Pogacar would work for del Toro, but in the end he got the win in a kind of accidental way. I don’t think he was planning to attack in the descent, but he just naturally opened a gap while he was pulling and they couldn’t catch him. If they had arrived together in the 7-men group to the last climb, I think he would have launched del Toro.

Today I had the feeling that the rest of the contenders kind of gave up before even trying. A strong aura of invincibility surrounds Pogacar, and that discourages rivals from testing or sometimes trying to follow him, as today’s race proved once again.

The slopes were not brutal in Montello (around 5%) and del Toro’s attack wasn’t that hard. Victor Lafay happened to be behind him before the attack and he could follow him. A rider like Lafay, who isn’t exactly known for his climbing and explosive skills and who has not had a brilliant season whatsoever. It was Pogacar closing the gap by himself behind, whereas… nobody else even seemed to try?

No Roglic, no Pidcock, no Healy. Nobody thought they could stand that pace and chose to let them fly away, making UAE’s job easier. I am not saying they would have beaten UAE, as the double Pogacar-del Toro card is hard to defeat if they are in good shape as was the case today, but giving up without trying is a worrying sign.

Riders like Pidcock or Roglic are clearly in a good shape, but they were just fighting amongst each other for the podium, which they did not even get due to lack of collaboration. I’m afraid the same lack of ambition will be shown on Saturday in Lombardy, with rivals accepting their fate and settling for second place. The only doubt is when will Pogacar attack and go solo. Predictable? Yes. Boring? Not necessarily.