Roglic’s presence could be huge: if teams soft-pedal a Pogacar
move, they risk giving a free pass to another Grand Tour winner. Mohoric is the
team’s road captain and stabiliser, elite on sketchy descents into Kigali’s
narrow corners, capable of closing split-second gaps or launching a bridge with
one acceleration. Novak is the pure climbing diesel for long, steady damage on
the circuit climbs, while Mezgec’s job is the dirty one early: shepherd Pogacar
through the first laps, bully for space before the cobbles, and keep him out of
trouble before the altitude does its work. Govekar and Glivar can sit in early
moves to relieve Slovenia of chase duties; Primožič and Žumer are flexible
bodies for bottle runs and elastic-snapping accelerations.
Belgium for Evenepoel
Remco Evenepoel rolls in with momentum from the time trial and, crucially, a
squad tailor-made for a high, punishing baseline of speed: Ilan Van Wilder,
Cian Uijtdebroeks, Victor Campenaerts, Florian Vermeersch, Quinten Hermans,
Xandro Meurisse and Louis Vervaeke. The late disruption, Tiesj Benoot’s
COVID-positive and replacement by Vervaeke, removes a savvy road boss, but
Vervaeke is a like-for-like climber who already knows Evenepoel’s rhythms from
trade-team duty.
Expect Campenaerts and Vermeersch to set a strangling tempo
on the flat connectors and before the cobbles, then peel off; Hermans and
Meurisse to mark and infiltrate the danger groups that inevitably spring on lap
five to ten; and Uijtdebroeks plus Van Wilder to take the race into the red on
the last three ascents. The plan’s clear: keep Remco out of the pinball, raise
the average speed, and make every team spend.
Great Britain for Pidcock
Britain’s eight is built around two live bullets and six very specific tools:
Tom Pidcock and Oscar Onley co-lead, with Joe Blackmore, James Knox, Fred
Wright, Mark Donovan, Oliver Knight and Bjorn Koerdt in support. The selection
signals a simple idea: protect two climbers who win from chaos, then sow that
chaos.
Wright’s craft on rough surfaces and in tight road furniture
should be visible all day, he’ll fight for position into Kimihurura and cover
any early lull by nudging a move clear. Knox and Donovan are the mountain
engines who can thin fields on repeat; Blackmore and Koerdt are the elastic, able
to jump with moves that Britain can’t afford to let go, and then sit on.
Knight’s rouleur chops plug gaps when the bunch is strung out down the valleys.
Onley’s presence buys Pidcock patience: if rivals over-mark the Vuelta podium
finisher, Onley can take the long shot himself.
Mexico for Isaac del Toro
Mexico have only three riders, Isaac Del Toro with Eder Frayre and David
Ruvalcaba, so their tactics are dictated by arithmetic. The first task is
energy conservation through positioning: Frayre must keep Del Toro out of the
slinky effect on the run-ins to the cobbles, while Ruvalcaba shadows the second
wave of moves so Mexico never has to chase alone.
Mid-race, the best scenario is to ride “inside” larger
teams’ agendas, jumping into a Belgian, Slovenian or British acceleration
rather than initiating one, then letting the big blocks do the rationing. Del
Toro’s finishing mode is either from a reduced elite group or a small counter
that goes once the last major Slovenian/Belgian pull has shed the domestiques.
With three bodies, every unnecessary surge costs twice. Their ceiling is high
if they can arrive at the finale having spent everyone else’s helpers first.
Ireland for Ben Healy
Ireland’s five, Ben Healy with Eddie Dunbar, Darren Rafferty, Ryan Mullen and
Rory Townsend, are perfectly profiled for Kigali’s rhythm: two climbers to
harden the course, a horsepower rouleur to keep a lid on chaos, and a classics
nuisance to sit on moves.
Expect Dunbar and Rafferty to do the late-race heavy
climbing and to escort Healy through the lap where favorites begin to isolate;
Mullen will be invaluable for threading Healy into the right wheel before each
ascent and closing short-lived gaps on the flats; Townsend’s value is twofold, covering
long-range groups so Ireland never chase solo, and offering a late slingshot if
the elite group hesitates. The internal brief is simple: don’t be drawn into
defending the race; always be represented. It plays to Healy’s hallmark of
winning from uncomfortable, long-range situations once the big teams are forced
to look at each other.