ANALYSIS | What Tadej Pogacar lacks to match Eddy Merckx in numbers
CyclingSunday, 16 November 2025 at 11:30
Comparing Tadej Pogacar to Eddy Merckx has become one of the most repeated exercises in modern cycling. The emergence of the Slovenian, capable of winning on virtually all terrains and maintaining a very high level of consistency throughout the season, has reopened a debate that seemed untouchable: to what extent is it possible to approach the record of the most dominant cyclist in history.
With every major Pogacar victory, the same question comes up again, which is why it is useful to put the figures face to face to measure the road ahead. The figure of Merckx, built during a period of superiority in the sixties and seventies, remains the absolute reference. His ability to dominate Monuments, grand tours, world championships and one-day races created a standard that seemed impossible to repeat.
The current seasons, with a more specialized calendar and more spread out opponents, make it even more complex to get close to his numbers. However, Pogacar has shown such versatility that it justifies studying where he is and how many wins he would need to tie him in the most relevant sections.
We find it interesting, beyond the impossible debate of who is the GOAT, to analyze what Pogacar has to do to equal Merckx in Monuments, grand tours, World Championships and total wins. The analysis does not include additional interpretations, only a direct comparison of the two riders' records. It also seemed appropriate to bring up Bernard Hinault, the greatest of the two.
Merckx vs. Pogacar Comparison
Victories by category:
- Eddy Merckx accumulated 46 overall victories, 79 victories in one-day races and 69 time trial victories, for a total of 279 victories.
- Tadej Pogacar, so far, has 19 overall victories, 29 one-day race victories and 8 time trial victories, totaling 108 wins. Therefore, Pogacar needs 171 victories to equal Merckx's total.
Victories in grand tours (overall):
- Tour de France: Merckx 5, Pogacar 4. 1 short of a tie.
- Giro d'Italia: Merckx 5, Pogacar 1. 4 to go.
- Vuelta a EspaƱa: Merckx 1, Pogacar 0. He is 1 short of a tie. In total, he is 6 grand tours short of matching Merckx's 11.
Victories in Monuments:
- Milano Sanremo: Merckx 7, Pogacar 0. 7 to go.
- Tour of Flanders: Merckx 2, Pogacar 2. 0 to go.
- Paris Roubaix: Merckx 3, Pogacar 0. 3 to go.
- LiĆØge-Bastogne-LiĆØge: Merckx 5, Pogacar 3. 2 to go.
- Il Lombardia: Merckx 2, Pogacar 5. Pogacar already surpasses him, he doesn't need to add more. In total, he is 9 Monuments short of tying Merckx.
Road World Championships:
- Merckx won 3, Pogacar 2. He is 1 short of matching it.
Summary of what Pogacar lacks:
- Total victories: 171
- Grand Tours: 6
- Monuments: 9
- World Road World Championships: 1
Estimate based on Pogacar's current rate:
Pogacar has won in his best seasons between 15 and 20 races a year, averaging approximately 17 wins per year. If he maintains this pace:
- He would need between 9 and 11 full seasons at the highest level to equal 171 total victories.
- For the 9 Monuments he is missing, if he averages two Monuments per year, it would take him about 4 to 5 seasons.
- For the remaining 6 grand tours, if he wins one per season, he would need between 6 and 7 seasons.
- The road World Championships is more uncertain, but with his level it could be achieved already this upcoming fall in MontrƩal.
Eddy Merckx, a titan of the cycling world
Bernard Hinault, the forgotten one in the equation
Hinault is always forgotten in this fight for the greatest of all time and, above all, in the appearance of a guy like Pogacar after Merckx. And it is true that the Frenchman did not win as many classics as the Belgian nor dominate as the Slovenian is doing in an era in which the Monuments seem to take more importance than ever. He accumulated 29 overall victories (GC), 29 one-day race victories and 50 time trial victories (ITT). The total number of victories is 145.
Grand Tour victories (overall victories): Hinault won a total of 10 grand tours for the overall classification: 5 Tour de France editions, 3 Giro d'Italia editions and 2 times the Vuelta a EspaƱa.
Monuments victories (per race):
- Milano-Sanremo: 1 victory (1975).
- Tour of Flanders: 0 victories.
- Paris-Roubaix: 1 victory (1981).
- LiĆØge-Bastogne-LiĆØge: 2 victories (1977 and 1980).
- Il Lombardia: 2 victories (1979 and 1984). In total, Hinault accumulated 6 victories in Monuments.
Road World Championship: Hinault won 1 World Championship on the road (1980).
Original: Juan Larra.
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