ANALYSIS - UAE once signed all the best for the Tour de France, now Tadej Pogacar loses key domestiques to rival teams

The 2026 Tour de France draws near, where Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard will face off; whilst the likes of Paul Seixas and Remco Evenepoel will also be going all out in pursuit of the World Champion's level. UAE Team Emirates - XRG may still have the strongest collective in France, however Pogacar's domestiques are one by one being signed by rival teams.

Professional cycling is a growing sport and in the last few years, the budget has been growing amongst a few teams. UAE Team Emirates - XRG cemented itself as the 'top dog' over the past few years. But is that run coming to an end?

Money means power and leverage. This applies to any sport and cycling is no exception. Even if some teams have better financial management or have a more efficient way of managing their budget, it is hard to counter the teams that have the larget budgets in cycling simply because they have a greater ability to sign the riders they want, and believe to be the best.

Netcompany INEOS in the 2010's had a notable budget of around €50 million, something which in that decade put it above the rest and allowed it to not only have great leaders such as Chris Froome, Bradley Wiggins, Geraint Thomas and more; but also begin a very notable trend of signing many of the world's best climbers and classics specialists to surround them.

Take the 2017 Tour de France, where defending champion had the following riders as domestiques: Former World Champion Michal Kwiatkowski; former time trial World Champion Vasil Kiryienka; Geraint Thomas who would win the Tour de following year; Mikel Landa on the prime of his career; Paris-Nice winner Sergio Henao; and veteran top domestiques such as Mikel Nieve, Luke Rowe and Christian Knees. For Team Sky the equation is not complicated: Flood the team with money, sign the best riders for every terrain and build a fortress around Froome.

It is a working tactic, so with no surprise, other sponsors and states invested big amounts of money to try and replicate what Sky has done successfully. The mission of becoming a Tour de France-dominating team, for a few dozen million euros a year, was an attractive offer for many big companies.

Hence in the 2020's, cycling saw the rise of two new super-teams. One was Team Visma | Lease a Bike, formerly known as Jumbo-Visma, who up to 2023 were living the dream: Jonas Vingegaard was a two-time Tour de France winner, Primoz Roglic was winning Grand Tours left and right; and the team even managed to win all three in 2023 with separate riders as even Sepp Kuss broke out of his shell to conquer the Vuelta a España.

Modern training and nutrition taken to another level. But Visma were not the only ones. And as the 2020's progressed, the presence of the ultra-talented Tadej Pogacar convinced the UAE to invest heavily in the team, in order to win the Tour de France, World Championships, cycling's monuments and just about anything they could. Their new budget: €60 million euros. Pogacar's salary is of a reported €8 million a season, the largest amount out of any rider in the peloton, by a long distance.

But Pogacar alone would not win a Tour de France, specially against a Visma that is seeking out revenge since their golden years. In 2022 the team signed João Almeida; In 2023 Adam Yates and Tim Wellens; In 2024 Isaac del Toro, Pavel Sivakov and Nils Politt; In 2025 Jhonatan Narváez and Florian Vermeersch. Little by little, they signed many of the best climbers, classics specialists and young talents in the entire peloton.

UAE's 2024 Tour de France team was a perfect example of the sheer firepower they had. Pogacar was supported by João Almeida, Adam Yates, Juan Ayuso, Pavel Sivakov and Marc Soler in the mountains; Whilst Tim Wellens and Nils Politt took care of him on the flat and hilly stages. Each and every one of these riders could either aim for the GC themselves, KOM jersey or stage wins across all terrains. It could be a stretch to call it the 'new Team Sky', but that is only because Visma was also on a constant mission to deploy their very best men at the Tour, and so there wasn't such a big gap to their biggest rival.

In 2025 the team signed Jhonatan Narváez, one of the very few men who, in 2024, managed to directly beat Tadej Pogacar on any stage - the first of the Giro d'Italia. This was most likely something Pogacar personally desired, because he recognized the Ecuadorian's explosivity and ability for the short climbs.

Pogacar is a climber, but so much more than that. He is also the best puncheur in the world and, in comparison to the other top climbers such as Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel, he has a much higher explosivity. Narváez was signed with a specific intent: Uphill attack leadouts. Watch the 2025 Dauphiné and the Tour - for example the ascent to Hautacam. Narváez' accelerations were so vicious that only someone like Vingegaard could actually follow him and Pogacar.

UAE had mastered the art of signing the perfect men to support Tadej Pogacar. But every reign has its end. The Emirati team may have reached the very peak when it comes to surrounding Pogacar with the best domestiques UAE's deep pocket could find; as new rivals on the market emerge and are taking shots at the world's top team directly.

There are two big hitters which are not at the forefront of this story, but require a note: Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe and Lidl-Trek. Both of these teams have, since the summer of 2023, had the entry of major European financial superpowers: Red Bull and Lidl respectively. Both teams are now in the €40-50 million euro budgets, now in the same field as Visma and INEOS; and not far from UAE.

But above their yearly budget is the availability to deploy massive amounts of money for specific moments. Red Bull bought out the contract of Primoz Roglic in the winter of 2023-2024; and last winter they struck again with the signing of Remco Evenepoel. His salary is of around €6 million now and you can argue the signing fee to buy out his previous contract at Soudal - Quick-Step was not too far.

Lidl-Trek is perhaps slightly below when it comes to the Grand Tour specialist conversation, but their buyout of Juan Ayuso's UAE contract has been estimated to have reached as high as €10 million euros - although this value has to be taken with a grain of salt. These two teams can do this again, and with more and more riders breaking their ongoing contracts in the sport, the unpredictability of the market has raised.

UAE could benefit from this as well, but the truth is they have not. Whilst they cannot be criticized, UAE's four signings for 2026 were lackluster, and none of the riders are expected to be in the conversation to be part of the Tour de France. But the men that do race the Tour with Pogacar might well leave.

2025 UAE had Tadej Pogacar, João Almeida, Juan Ayuso, Adam Yates and also the emerging Isaac del Toro who climbed into the top at an hypersonic speed throughout the year. It was not possible to keep so many big leaders and individual ambitions out of each other's way; and Ayuso has left.

UAE's Tour de France lineup will include Tadej Pogacar, Isaac del Toro, Tim Wellens, Brandon McNulty, Florian Vermeersch and most likely Adam Yates. Marc Soler was initially lined up to race the French Grand Tour, but after a pelvis fracture suffered at the Giro d'Italia, the chances are virtually none. Pavel Sivakov was not initially confirmed to race the Tour, but his selection is quite likely. The eighth spot is most likely going to be filled by Nils Politt, trusted road captain and flat-terrain freight train who's kept the Slovenian out of trouble in many races.

Politt and Sivakov are in contract year. And Pavel Sivakov is leaving the team. UAE have been at the forefront of the negotiation table conversations with Paul Seixas - cycling's newest 'super talent'. UAE is only one team, you could say any top team is in talks and hopes of bringing the Frenchman to their team when his contract runs out at the end of 2027.

But with what he has shown so far, at the age of 19, you can only realistically consider Decathlon CMA CGM Team and UAE Team Emirates - XRG to have the Frenchman under contract in 2028 and going forward. The rider who may be France's first Tour de France winner in literal decades has attracted enough attention that as we speak, it is believed that the team could switch to a Swiss license in order to provide a better financial status for Seixas; and even French president Emanuel Macron is said to have talked to Seixas. The French want Seixas, bad, and the Decathlon team may just benefit from support they had never counted on.

Seixas' rise came at the absolute perfect time for Decathlon, the former AG2R team, which is now having two French commercial giants supplying its budget. The team's updated budget is of around €40 million and this winter's signings were luxurious and not just by name, but also quality. Tiesj Benoot, Tobias Lund Andresen, Matthew Riccitello and Olav Kooij are all new faces with the team - the latter even said to have signed with a €3 million euro salary, the largest of any sprinter in the history of the sport.

Decathlon wants to be at the top of the sport, they have built all the bases, and now they have their own 'Pogacar'. It very much feels like 2020 UAE, a team that had very little order but the budget was increased, a massive talent was unveiled, the and the team quickly found an order and someone to focus around from a very young age. With that came even more money. Decathlon quickly climbed into the level and budget of the team's that aim to be the new UAE.

And they are biting back. Pavel Sivakov is joining Decathlon next season, that is almost a given at this point in time. UAE want to sign Paul Seixas, and Decathlon are not only trying to maintain him in their ranks but hit back hard. They are signing one of Pogacar's closest domestiques, not only a new support man and compatriot for Seixas; but also someone with personal and special insight on Pogacar; something that can be used against the Slovenian from 2027 onwards.

UAE no longer has an unilateral hold of the transfer market. And now, their overflow of top riders means they cannot offer the same amount of money to each and every individual rider that has one specific team dedicate their full focus into signing. Sivakov is said to have been offered a salary of €1.5 million a season, an incredibly high pitch for a rider that does not usually deliver results for himself, but instead has proven essential to Pogacar's success in the past few seasons.

But UAE are losing another important rider: Jhonatan Narváez. As previously stated, UAE isn't battling one team in the market, it's battling a pool of sharks that grows by the year. Decathlon is going for Sivakov; Netcompany INEOS is going for Narváez; And Nils Politt could well be the target of a third team such as Red Bull or Lidl-Trek, both German top teams who would love to have their country's top classics specialist in their lineup.

But whilst Politt remains an open question, Narváez is not. He was signed from INEOS into the 2025 season, had the perfect years with UAE; In 2026 he is being given more space and freedom but all signs point towards a return to the British team.

This may come as a surprise. Narváez not only has been given several shots at leadership, he has used them to great success too. He won the Tour Down Under last year and led UAE in several late-season races; Whilst this spring he was given a free role at the Giro d'Italia where he has already won three stages. A rider of invaluable level; he has joined UAE on the same terms as Tim Wellens - occasional freedom on races that suit him, and support for Pogacar in the big classics and Grand Tours. UAE has the financial resources too, and so it is not easy to assess why Narváez intends on departing the team back towards INEOS, where his opportunities will be similar.

The answer does most likely lay in money, as INEOS remains a €50 million superpower who have in recent seasons put more focus on the classics and less in the Grand Tours. This winter they bought out Oscar Onley's Picnic PostNL contract for several million euros, and Narváez should be their big bet into 2027.

The signing has already been given as an almost certain several times over the past few months. One could argue his current freedom and success at the Giro is the single biggest sign that he belongs at UAE; but this Sunday, a report from the Italian news outlet TuttoBiciWeb argues the move is still likely, despite UAE's best efforts.

UAE is being ripped apart from the seams, with rival teams seeking their best domestiques and potentially deploying them against Pogacar himself for the coming seasons. The rise of Paul Seixas; the constant threat of Jonas Vingegaard and the Remco Evenepoel-Florian Lipowitz alliance over at Red Bull are all different sub-plots that UAE and Pogacar will have to handle themselves. As the winner of the 2024 and 2025 editions, as well as everything else he's shown in recent years, all teams enter the 2026 Tour looking to sit at the throne in which Pogacar has carved his name into. And in 2027, UAE may not be the super-team that it has been for the past few years.