ANALYSIS: Tadej Pogacar’s weakness that fuels hope for Jonas Vingegaard ahead of the 2026 Tour de France
CyclingMonday, 22 December 2025 at 20:00
In a world where Tadej Pogacar often looks untouchable, one question continues to linger for his rivals: how can he actually be beaten at the Tour de France?
As the road to the 2026 season takes shape, little appears capable of stopping the UAE Team Emirates - XRG leader from claiming a fifth Tour title and writing himself into history alongside Eddy Merckx, Miguel Indurain, Jacques Anquetil and Bernard Hinault. Since 2024 in particular, Pogacar has reached a level that few in the modern peloton can match.
And yet, even at this altitude, there remains one recurring vulnerability.
While Pogacar is almost unbeatable when everything runs smoothly, his performances over recent seasons have also shown that his dominance can be disrupted under very specific circumstances. That is the narrow opening Team Visma | Lease a Bike and Jonas Vingegaard must cling to if they are to challenge him again in July.
When Pogacar is in full control, there is usually no answer. His attacks are perfectly timed, brutally effective and have repeatedly distanced even riders of the calibre of Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel over recent seasons.
Pogacar, his own greatest enemy
However, Pogacar’s career also shows that his biggest threat is sometimes himself. One weakness has surfaced often enough to be impossible to ignore: his tendency to hit the deck.
That vulnerability has appeared in multiple major races. It was visible at Strade Bianche, again at the Tour de France in 2025 despite overall victory, and earlier at Liege-Bastogne-Liege in 2023. In all cases, Pogacar’s aggressive racing style proved to be both his greatest strength and his greatest risk.
The pattern is clear in the incidents themselves:
- Liege-Bastogne-Liege 2023: a crash left Pogacar with a fractured wrist, compromising his preparation for the Tour de France, where he was beaten for the second time by Jonas Vingegaard.
- Strade Bianche 2025: despite being visibly the strongest rider in the race, Pogacar suffered a heavy fall around 50 kilometres from the finish while leading alongside Tom Pidcock and Connor Swift. Bloodied and battered, he still returned to the race and went on to win with a decisive attack 19 kilometres from the line.
- Tour de France 2025: on stage 11, Pogacar was brought down by Tobias Johannessen of Uno-X Mobility. The incident could have cost him significant time to his general classification rivals, but the group waited. Had Team Visma | Lease a Bike chosen otherwise, the outcome of the Tour may have looked very different.
The reality is uncomfortable but simple for Pogacar’s rivals. On pure performance, he is almost impossible to defeat. The only realistic path to beating him is when misfortune intervenes and a mistake or crash changes the balance.
That is the scenario Vingegaard, Evenepoel and others such as Florian Lipowitz, set to co-lead Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe at the Tour de France in 2026, must be prepared for.
And if such a moment comes again, history suggests hesitation will be costly. UAE have already shown that they will not wait when it suits them. The clearest recent example came at the Coppa Agostoni in 2025, when Adam Yates refused to wait for Carlos Canal after a puncture while the pair were contesting the win.
For Pogacar’s challengers, the conclusion is stark. Beating him requires more than legs alone. It requires absolute readiness to seize the moment when it finally appears.
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- I want to be very best, like no one ever was.
KerisVroom22-12-2025 - He's going to just keep getting kicked around and not winning. Teams have let him out of contracts early for a reason.Veganpotter22-12-2025
- "the team were almost happier for me than for Tadej, who actually won. " i understand everyone wants to one up on fanboying Tadej but lets not go overboard here ok.abstractengineer22-12-2025
- In other words, "I'll go whether or not Tadej goes". But it doesn't make quite the same headline.Renz22-12-2025
- It’s honest of Van Gils to admit Remco is in better shape right now. but he should be aiming to stepping up as a leader when his team needs him.
ChillingCyclist22-12-2025 - Red bull is going to have again lots of riders who will not be able to performabstractengineer21-12-2025
- he got rid of Demare, he made Pinot work for him instead of wining stages.abstractengineer21-12-2025
- Riding 20 m ahead is not a sin considering that the atmosphere may have been bad before. but again it feels like judgemental considering he has not even worked with him significantly. On the other hand one can already see that it in races, it doesn't require FV special opinion.abstractengineer21-12-2025
- Lots of things need to go right for him and bad for others for him to win. He's just not who he used to be and he's on his inevitable decline earlier than most.Veganpotter21-12-2025
- Thibau disappears!frieders320-12-2025
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