ANALYSIS: Tadej Pogacar's five biggest rivals at Strade Bianche 2026

It feels almost pointless to ask the question. When Tadej Pogacar lines up at Strade Bianche, the script usually writes itself.

The Slovenian has already won the Tuscan showpiece three times and arrives once again as the overwhelming favourite. In truth, it would be a shock if he did not lift his arms in Siena’s Piazza del Campo on Saturday afternoon. It is rare enough for Pogacar to lose a one-day race. It is even rarer when Mathieu van der Poel is not there. And defeats on his seasonal debut are hardly part of the pattern.

Strade Bianche may not have the history of a Monument, but in prestige, spectacle and rider ambition, it now sits just beneath that tier. For many fans, this is the true start of spring.

Still, even in a race that often bends to Pogacar’s will, there are riders capable of testing him. Here are five names who could make Strade Bianche 2026 uncomfortable for cycling’s most dominant force.

The American from Team Visma | Lease a Bike comes into the race in sharp condition after an impressive French campaign. He finished fourth at the Faun Ardeche Classic, the rider who held out longest behind a flying Paul Seixas, and then took second at the Faun Drome Classic, only beaten in a two-up sprint by Romain Gregoire.

Jorgenson traditionally hits form early in the season and thrives in demanding terrain. While he is expected to support Wout van Aert, his engine and racing instinct make him a dangerous card to play. An aggressive early move on the sterrato would not be out of character.

Ben Healy’s early season has been quieter than Jorgenson’s, with no standout result in the recent French classics. Even so, Strade Bianche suits him perfectly.

The Irishman finished fourth last year, and the race’s explosive gravel sectors play to his strengths. With Tim Wellens, who edged him off the podium in 2025, absent through injury, a top-three finish should be a realistic ambition.

Winning would require something extraordinary, likely an early move that sticks despite the strength of UAE Team Emirates behind. That is a big ask, but Healy has never been afraid of big risks.

If anyone can match Pogacar on gravel, it is Tom Pidcock. The Briton seized his opportunity in 2023 when Pogacar was absent and claimed victory, and in 2025 he was the only rider able, for a time, to live with the Slovenian’s acceleration.

Pidcock’s handling, punch and race craft make him a natural contender here. If the question were who is most likely to finish second, he would be an obvious answer. To win, he would probably need either a rare off day from Pogacar or a slice of racing fortune. Either way, expect him to be present when the decisive attacks fly.

Isaac del Toro’s gravel credentials were clear at the 2025 Giro d'Italia and again in support of Pogacar at this race last year. The Mexican has shown he can handle the chaos and positioning battles that define Strade Bianche.

Realistically, his route to victory would depend on finding himself alongside his team leader deep into the finale and then benefiting from team dynamics. His strong level at the UAE Tour only strengthens the case that he is ready for a major performance.

He has already shown a willingness to sacrifice for Pogacar on the biggest stage, most notably at the World Championships in Kigali. If he brings his very best legs to Tuscany, he could be more than just a helper.

Wout van Aert remains the most credible threat on paper. His record here speaks for itself: one victory, two third places and a fourth in four appearances before 2021. Few riders combine power, endurance and technical skill on gravel like the Belgian.

He also carries a psychological marker. On the final stage of last year’s Tour de France, he was the rider who managed to overpower Pogacar. Context matters, but beating him at all is a statement.

The question is condition. Crashes and illness have interrupted his preparation, and it is unclear whether he can reach peak form in time. If he does, Strade Bianche 2026 could be far less predictable than it currently appears.