ANALYSIS | Pogacar vs Evenepoel, or can someone else take world championship time trial glory?

The wait is over. After months of anticipation, the UCI World Championships arrive in Rwanda for the first time, with Kigali ready to welcome the best riders on the planet. On Sunday, September 21st, the men’s elite individual time trial will take place, setting the tone for a week in which the eyes of the cycling world will be fixed firmly on East Africa. This is not just another World Championships; it is a historic milestone for the sport, with the first rainbow jerseys to be awarded on African soil. And with a course that promises a punishing mix of climbing, cobbles, and technical descents, it could hardly be a more dramatic opening. And that’s before we talk about the headline acts…

The race begins inside BK Arena, the largest indoor stadium in East Africa, a venue usually alive with basketball and concerts, but on this day transformed into a starting gate for the world’s most powerful cyclists. From there, the riders tackle 40.6 kilometres across Kigali’s undulating streets, finishing at the iconic Kigali Convention Centre, which glows at night as a symbol of Rwanda’s modern identity.

But for those fighting the clock on Sunday, it is not the architecture that will be remembered. The profile contains 680 metres of climbing, enough to shred the legs of those who treat it like a flat drag race. It is a course made to punish the riders and amplify the strengths of riders who can do more than simply churn out watts on long straights.

The first eight kilometres are a deceptive calm. Flat and relatively simple, they serve as a warm-up before the Côte de Nyanza, the opening climb, changes everything. At 2.5 kilometres averaging nearly 6 percent, it is long enough to force riders out of their comfort zones and into their red zones far earlier than is normal in a time trial.

After cresting the climb, a descent brings little relief, because the road immediately turns uphill again. This time the ascent lasts over 6 kilometres at 3.5 percent, not steep but relentless, and certain to expose anyone who started too quickly. Both summits also serve as intermediate checkpoints, making them the first clear indications of who has arrived in Kigali with the right form.

By 31.6 kilometres, following a long seven-kilometre descent, the third checkpoint appears just before the Côte de Péage, a two-kilometre climb averaging six percent. It is a launchpad for the final fireworks. The Côte de Kimihurura, 1.3 kilometres at 6.3 percent, is not just steep but cruelly paved with African cobblestones, testing balance and traction as much as leg power. And when that is done, the finish is still not flat. The final kilometre drags uphill at four percent before the line at the Convention Centre finally appears.

Let’s cast our minds back to last year in Zurich. Remco Evenepoel arrived as defending champion and left with his status reinforced, destroying the course and his rivals as many expected him to do. Zurich was a power-based test, with long sections for steady pacing, and Evenepoel thrived, beating Filippo Ganna, Joshua Tarling, and a host of specialists to take his second consecutive rainbow jersey.

It is part of a remarkable sequence for Remco: since 2021, he has never failed to take home a world title in at least one discipline each year. In 2022 he won the road race, in 2023 the time trial, in 2024 the time trial again, and in Paris last summer he added both the Olympic road race and time trial to his collection. Few riders in history have been so dominant in races against the clock.

And yet, in 2025, cracks have shown. At the Tour de France, Evenepoel’s general classification challenge collapsed in spectacular fashion. He had started well, taking a time trial stage in the first week and holding third overall, wearing the white jersey as best young rider. He looked on course to repeat his result from his debut Tour in 2024.

But then came stage 13, the mountain time trial from Loudenvielle to the Peyragudes airfield. The 10.9 kilometre climb was Pogacar territory, but nobody expected Evenepoel to implode the way he did. Tadej Pogacar won the stage in exactly 23 minutes, 36 seconds faster than Jonas Vingegaard. Evenepoel, meanwhile, cracked so completely that Vingegaard passed him on the road, a humiliation for a reigning world champion.

His final time was two minutes and 39 seconds slower than Pogacar. “I just could not keep pushing the power,” he admitted afterward, looking shattered. One day later, on the Tourmalet, he abandoned the race, unable to recover. For a rider who has built his career on TTs, it was a brutal reminder that even the best can break.

Since then, the narrative has shifted. Can Evenepoel really be trusted to dominate on hilly time trials? Is his reign in rainbow over? He tried to silence those doubts at the Tour of Britain, where he returned to racing after taking some time to recover, finishing second overall in the general classification and winning a stage.

The numbers looked good, the form solid, but questions remain. Kigali is not Zurich. It is not a flat Tour prologue. It is a lumpy, technical course with cobbles and ramps that bite. It looks, in fact, more like Peyragudes than any of the other TT rainbow jerseys Evenepoel has won.

That is why his words this week, spoken to Sporza, are important. “I was able to do everything I needed to do perfectly. It was a relaxing ten days. I trained well and have a good feeling about it. I’m ready to go.” Clearly, Evenepoel’s confidence is undimmed, but whether his legs back him up on Sunday is another matter.

Let’s now look at the main challengers to take Evenepoel’s title.

If anyone can exploit Evenepoel’s vulnerability, it is Tadej Pogacar. The Slovenian’s palmarès is already staggering: four Tour de France titles, a Giro d’Italia, countless Monuments, and the defending rainbow jersey in the road race.

The time trial world title, however, remains one of the rare prizes missing, but Kigali might finally give him the chance. Pogacar thrives in uphill time trials, his most famous being the 2020 Tour de France decider at La Planche des Belles Filles, when he stunned Primoz Roglic and the cycling world to seize yellow. In Peyragudes this summer, he repeated the trick, winning the mountain time trial by a vast margin. His time of 23 minutes was untouchable, even with Vingegaard having passed Evenepoel on the road.

Yet Pogacar is not entirely immune to inconsistency. At the Critérium du Dauphiné earlier in the summer, on a hilly time trial that on paper should have suited him, he faltered badly, finishing fourth and conceding a minute to Evenepoel. It was a rare off day, but a reminder that over longer, mixed courses, there is a chance that the others have hope.

For Pogacar, the challenge will be to manage the flat sections without bleeding time to Evenepoel, while exploiting the Côte de Kimihurura and its cobbles to maximum effect. He is clearly the world’s best rider, his confidence never in doubt, and he knows this is a perfect chance to win the rainbow jersey for the TT. If he adds this jersey to his road race title, the debate about whether he is the greatest of all time will only grow louder.

Beyond the duel between Evenepoel and Pogacar, there are others worth watching. Jay Vine has built a reputation as a rider who thrives in adversity. At the Vuelta a España, he came within a second of beating Filippo Ganna in the Valladolid time trial, missing out by just 0.90 seconds on a 12.2 kilometre course.

Earlier in the year, at the Giro d’Italia’s short time trial in Tirana, he finished third, only three seconds down on Josh Tarling, despite riding with heavy bandages after a crash. Vine has always been a strong climber, but his progress against the clock has been rapid. For him, a podium would be a career-defining achievement, and on this course it is not impossible.

Thymen Arensman is another rider who could thrive in Kigali. The Dutchman has shown this season that he is capable of matching the best in the mountains. At the Tour de France he won 2 stages, including stage 19 at La Plagne, where he held off Pogacar and Vingegaard in dreadful conditions. His time trial record is respectable rather than spectacular, but Kigali’s profile plays to his strengths. He may lose time on the flatter sections, but the repeated climbs and cobbled finish offer him a chance to claw back ground. If he paces it correctly, he has the power to challenge for a top five, and possibly even a medal if others falter.

Now we come to possibly the most exciting and surprising stars of 2025: Isaac del Toro, the Mexican prodigy who lit up the Giro d’Italia in May. He wore the maglia rosa until stage 20, eventually finishing second overall behind Simon Yates, and claimed the white jersey as best young rider. Along the way he proved his time trial strength, particularly on stage 10’s wet and technical course from Lucca to Pisa, where he defended the leader’s jersey against far more experienced rivals. Kigali will be another step up, but del Toro has shown he is already one of the best climbers in the world.

As the sun sets on Sunday, the Kigali Convention Centre will glow in its colours while one rider pulls on the rainbow jersey. If it is Evenepoel, it will mark a third straight victory, a redemption after the collapse of July. If it is Pogacar, it will fill one of the last gaps in his glittering career. Or can someone else spoil the battle between the top two? Let us know below!