ANALYSIS: Jonas Vingegaard's five biggest rivals at Paris-Nice 2026

After months of waiting and several early setbacks, Jonas Vingegaard is finally set to return to racing. The start of Paris-Nice 2026 marks the Team Visma | Lease a Bike leader’s long-awaited season debut after a winter disrupted by crashes and illness.

For cycling fans, the Race to the Sun therefore brings not only the first major stage race battle of the spring but also the return of one of the sport’s biggest stars. And when a rider who has twice beaten Tadej Pogacar at the Tour de France lines up, expectations inevitably follow.

Despite not racing since October 2025, when he abandoned the European Championships, the Dane arrives at Paris-Nice with the kind of status that immediately makes him one of the favourites for the overall classification. But returning after five months away from competition is never straightforward, and several strong rivals will be looking to take advantage.

With only one summit finish on the route, stage 7 to Auron, alongside plenty of medium mountain terrain and a decisive team time trial, the fight for the yellow jersey could be more open than usual.

Here are five of the riders most capable of challenging Vingegaard at Paris-Nice 2026.

The new Lidl-Trek leader appears to be the most obvious rival to Vingegaard heading into the race. Ayuso arrives in strong form after winning the overall classification at the 2026 Volta ao Algarve, where he also claimed victory on the final stage and delivered impressive performances throughout the week.

A strong time triallist and explosive puncheur, Ayuso could prove particularly dangerous on the medium mountain terrain that dominates much of this year’s route. If Lidl-Trek perform well in the team time trial and Ayuso begins to collect time bonuses, the gap ahead of the decisive climb to Auron could quickly become significant.

Just behind Ayuso among the favourites sits UAE Team Emirates XRG’s Joao Almeida, one of the most reliable performers in one-week stage races.

Last season, the Portuguese rider won Itzulia Basque Country, the Tour de Romandie and the Tour de Suisse in succession, underlining his ability to control and manage week-long general classification battles.

Although he has not yet taken a victory in 2026, Almeida has already shown consistent form with podium finishes at the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana and the Volta ao Algarve.

Another serious contender is Oscar Onley, the headline signing for INEOS Grenadiers ahead of the 2026 season.

The 23-year-old Brit began his campaign at the Volta ao Algarve, where he finished fourth overall, only 23 seconds behind Almeida. That performance offered an early glimpse of the level he could bring to his new team.

INEOS may also play the numbers game. Alongside Onley, both Kevin Vauquelin and Carlos Rodriguez are capable of challenging for the general classification, giving the British team multiple tactical options across the week.

Lidl - Trek arrive with another major contender in Mattias Skjelmose, who will race Paris-Nice with the same ambition as team-mate Ayuso.

Rather than establishing a clear leader, the race is expected to serve as an early test of how the pair can function together before potentially sharing responsibilities later in the season.

Skjelmose’s strengths as a puncheur could prove particularly valuable on the rolling terrain that features heavily in this year’s route.

Finally, Daniel Martinez represents a more unpredictable threat. The Colombian finished on the podium at the 2024 Giro d’Italia and is aiming to rediscover that level with Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe.

Paris-Nice could offer the ideal stage to demonstrate that he remains capable of competing for major results. With team-mates such as Aleksandr Vlasov, Laurence Pithie, Mick van Dijke and Nico Denz alongside him, Martinez has the support required to shape the race if his form allows.

Of course, these five riders are far from the only contenders. INEOS Grenadiers also have strong options in Kevin Vauquelin and Carlos Rodriguez, while riders such as Lenny Martinez and Harold Tejada will also aim to challenge for the yellow jersey.

With a balanced route and several major stage race specialists on the startlist, Paris-Nice 2026 looks set to deliver one of the most competitive early-season battles of the year.