ANALYSIS | Is the men’s world championship road race really just for pure climbers?

The men’s world championship road race in Kigali has been sold for months as a climbers’ paradise, a race that will strip the peloton down to its lightest and most efficient mountain specialists. In other words, Tadej Pogacar, and perhaps Remco Evenepoel after his performance on Sunday in the time trial. Organisers and pundits alike have compared it to some of the hardest courses in history. With 5,478 metres of climbing packed into 267.5 kilometres, it is the most mountainous world championship route since Sallanches in 1980. On that day Bernard Hinault won on home soil after 268 kilometres and 6,247 metres of climbing, a race that lasted over seven and a half hours and left only 15 riders classified.

This comparison is not made lightly. Kigali’s circuit features altitude, cobbles, and repetition on a scale rarely seen in the sport’s biggest one-day race. It is no surprise then that bookmakers in the UK list Tadej Pogacar as the overwhelming favourite. Sky Bet have him priced at ½, with Remco Evenepoel the next in line at 3/1, Mexican talent Isaac Del Toro at 7/1, and Tom Pidcock further back at 14/1. Of the ten riders shortest in the odds, every single one is considered a climber first and foremost.

Yet the question lingers: is this course truly one for pure climbers, or can others survive the attrition and strike on Sunday?

If we take a look at the course above, we can see that it actually looks like a spring classic on the cobbles. No alpine climbs, no hour long seemingly vertical efforts. Instead, lots of short, punchy climbers. So why are we being led to believe that the puncheurs have no chance?

The Kigali circuit is 15.5 kilometres long and will be tackled a punishing number of times. Its defining features are two climbs. The first is the Côte de Kigali Golf, 800 metres at an average of 8%, and it crests with six kilometres remaining on each lap. After a short descent the riders hit the Côte de Kimihurura, 1.3 kilometres at 6.4% on cobblestones, finishing just one kilometre from the line. From there, 300 metres of respite give way to a final 700 metres of uphill drag to the finish at gradients above 5%.

This closing sequence is explosive. Normally, a cobbled climb like Kimihurura would have Mathieu van der Poel or Wout van Aert written all over it. But neither of the two great Classics riders will start on Sunday. Their absence shifts the spotlight firmly onto the grand tour specialists who can carry their climbing ability deep into a six-hour race.

One of the reasons for this is the altitude, as the entire course is run at around 1,500 metres above sea level. It is not Alpine or Andean thin air, but it is enough to make every effort bite a little harder and sap the recovery between climbs.

The contrast with last year’s championship in Zurich is instructive. That race was longer, 274 kilometres, but had “only” 4,200 metres of climbing. The decisive climb into Witikon was 1.9 kilometres at 6.2%, longer than either of Kigali’s ascents. Pogacar made the difference not through altitude or cobbles, but because he was simply unstoppable last year, launching a 100-kilometre solo raid to take the rainbow jersey and complete his triple crown.

Kigali’s climbs are shorter. None reach the length of Witikon, let alone an Alpine pass. On paper, they seem more suited to puncheurs than to diesel climbers. The gradients of 6–8% are stiff but not monstrous, the length of one to two minutes at race pace rather than ten to fifteen. A rider like Pidcock, who thrives on short, sharp efforts, or Evenepoel, who can unleash a devastating acceleration on a punchy rise, would normally welcome such a profile.

But the volume of climbing tells another story. Tackling more than 5,400 metres of ascent, spread across lap after lap, transforms these modest climbs into something far heavier. It is not their individual severity, but their repetition, that will drain the peloton. The cumulative fatigue will eventually break the legs of riders who rely on short bursts. By the final laps, it is the pure climbers who will have more left to give.

And as we have seen time and time again, Tadej Pogacar is usually the last rider to hit the red zone, and still have enough for a brutal attack.

Yes, on paper, Sunday’s course evokes Flanders more than the Alps. Yet the distance and elevation make it something altogether different. To ride it once is to tackle a hard one-day semi-Classic. To ride it fifteen times at race pace is to endure a day of attritional climbing more akin to the third week of a grand tour.

This dual character is what has confused the previews. The finale looks tailor-made for a Classics rider with a cobbled punch, but the length, altitude, and sheer climbing volume turn it into a war of attrition, favouring the grand tour men.

What favours Tadej Pogacar even more, is that he is a true cobbled monuments specialist as well as a grand tour great. He has won the Tour of Flanders twice, including this spring, and was on the podium at his debut Paris-Roubaix in April. He’s been on the podium at Milano-Sanremo and won Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Il Lombardia multiple times.

So yes, the course is made for Tadej Pogacar.

The comparison with 1980 is valid. That year, Hinault’s victory in Sallanches came on a circuit that destroyed the field. The climbs were not monstrous by Alpine standards, but the repetition over 268 kilometres created the hardest championship of all time. Hinault himself called it the race of his life, and only a climber of the very highest calibre could win such a day.

Kigali is not quite as brutal, 6247 metres versus 5478, but it is closer to Sallanches than to any other course in the last 40 years. The demands are similar: not one climb too difficult in isolation, but an endless procession of ascents that slowly crush every pretender.

Pogacar’s candidacy is obvious. He has shown in every grand tour and one-day race that he can sustain repeated climbing and still deliver a winning attack. Evenepoel, while shorter and more explosive, has proved he can handle altitude and high-volume climbing, as seen in his Liège victories and his world titles. If Evenepoel can replicate his time trial performance from Sunday, and Pogacar is not quite at his best, he is a genuine contender to reclaim the title he won in 2022.

Del Toro, at just 21, already looks like a natural in the mountains. Pidcock has proven his worth in the classics, and showed at the recent Vuelta that he can mix it with the GC men on the climbs.

In short, to the naked eye Kigali offers the illusion of a Classics circuit: short cobbled climbs, steep kicks near the finish, a finale for the bold. But its reality is that of a climbers’ championship: 5,478 metres of ascent, 267 kilometres of racing, six hours at altitude. The climbs may be short, but the volume is crushing. The cobbles may look inviting to the punchy specialists, but the accumulation ensures only the grand tour men will survive.

It is, in short, the hardest world championship course of the century. The comparison with Sallanches is justified. And if history is a guide, only a climber of the very highest class will wear the rainbow jersey by Sunday evening.