"A a bit of sporting suicide" - Analysts recommend Tadej Pogacar shies away from another 100-kilometer solo in Kigali

Tadej Pogacar will clash with Remco Evenepoel not only in the road race, but also in the individual time trial at the World Championships in Kigali. The Slovenian will have a tough task on his plate to defend rainbow jersey after a phenomenal victory in Zurich 2024. And the chrono week earlier only adds extra difficulty to his quest for glory.

"I always put a good Evenepoel first," estimates José De Cauwer in Sporza Daily podcast. But the defending champion will face competition from none other than the road champion Tadej Pogacar in Kigali.

However it is up in the air what shape will Pogacar arrive in: "He was good in Quebec, but not great. He had been ill and had doubts himself. But when you saw him in Montreal..." says Karl Vannieuwkerke, who doesn't want to give Evenepoel the gold medal just yet. "After Montreal, I have doubts."

"The fact that Pogacar is taking part is not because he is simply there," De Cauwer concludes the time trial section. "Well, because he thinks there might be a chance. Otherwise, he wouldn't be doing this. Or at least not to make Remco's victory bigger."

Mount Kigali will be an imporant part of the race as the longest and hardest climb on the course, marking a halfway point of the World Championships. In fact, with 5.9 kilometers at 6.8%, the climb could provide an opportunity for a daring attack. Defending world champion Tadej Pogacar could try to replicate his 100-kilometer solo from one year ago there. But is he daring to pull off the same trick for a second year in a row?

"A lot depends on the race situation," Vannieuwkerke estimates that the current breakaway situation will be crucial. "If there's no breakaway group and Pogacar goes for it like he did in Zurich last year, it's a bit of sporting suicide. I don't think he can do that twice."

Pogacar should not have won last year, but the chasers were looking at each other too much which allowed Pogacar's daring move to succeed. "Last year at the World Championships in Switzerland, there was no cooperation in the pursuit. They jumped in all directions. If they didn't do that, they'd still catch him."

Pogacar might've grown to gradually regret his early attack with time, De Cauwer feels like: "Of course! 30 kilometers from the finish, Pogacar looked pale. They almost had him, but the coordination between the countries wasn't working. And Belgium also overran themselves a bit in the chase. It was a bit too panicky."

Therefore the conclusion is that any breakaway group before Mount Kigali could play a key part in the conclusion of the race. For example UAE Team Emirates could try to bypass the national team borders and place several riders in an early move to then support Pogacar's attack from far out, something we have seen in Zurich from Pavel Sivakov.

"You have to make sure the gap with the leading group isn't too big. That's in the common interest. That way, something can be playable on Mount Kigali," Karl Vannieuwkerke shares his tactics. "But if Pogacar rides away to the first group and you are not with your best man, then it's time to book."

"If Evenepoel is good, you still have a counterbalance and there are few other countries that can put someone next to Pogacar in a one-day race. With this Belgian team, I wouldn't be afraid either," De Cauwer sounds optimistic about his compatriot's chances.

But he's not opposed to a completely unexpected name rising up to glory in the unusual conditions of African race. "There are still riders, and at World Championships, other names always emerge. Moreover, if everyone fears Pogacar, the race can be held early. Then many riders will try to - here we are again - anticipate."