Profile stage 3: Orbe - Orbe
Orbe - Orbe, 176.5 kilometers
Stage 3 is a mountainous day, however perhaps the easiest of the four mountain stages. A day for the 'baroudeurs', the breakaway specialists, without a particular focus as to whether they are climbers, rouleurs or classics specialists.
The hilly start will be quite explosive and is favourable to the formation of a strong group whilst the gaps at this point in the race will be big enough that most will be allowed up front. The finale is usually too hard for the sprinters but not easy enough for the climbers to really make a difference - which means it's a day where chaos and tactical knowhow can rule.
Most of the day is rather hilly but without any major climb, this will come in the final fourth of the race with the Col du Mollendruz - 9 kilomters at 6.7%. A difficult climb, but nothing crazy, and no sections that are uber-steep.
The climb ends with 33 kilometers to go, from there on mostly downhill until Orbe. Only the final 10 kilometers are flat, making it terrain where it is still possible to chase back a breakaway if there is an organized peloton behind.
The Favourites
Tadej Pogacar - Like most of the stages, really. Tadej Pogacar is the main favourite for this stage, but the truth is there is no 'man to beat' with a profile such as this. Only Pogacar can really make the difference on a stage like this, but the truth is that it really is up to him. If UAE want, they can control the breakaway and launch the World Champion on the climb, who would then ordinarily have the legs to take a solo win. But they do not have to, and whether it's worth committing so much energy for one win (out of many) is a fair question. Most likely, as he has been doing thus far this week, he will just try to stay in the peloton and control attacks if there are any; and perhaps have a rare occasion where they will allow a breakaway to go.
I would say it's not impossible for us to see some sort of GC fight, as the climbs' details, breakaway-favourable profile and downhill/flat finale does allow for tactical racing. The main GC teams should have someone in front, as it gives them more leverage over what to do late in the day. No-one will drop Pogacar, but of course we must consider in-form men such as Lenny Martínez or Florian Lipowitz to try and attack; whilst the other GC men can attack each other. Luke Plapp should be very well adapted to this stage whilst Movistar's Jefferson Alveiro Cepeda looks in extraordinary form and is the kind of aggressive rider who would attack the climbs as we see here. If BORA have men, it would make sense for Luke Tuckwell or even Primoz Roglic (who purposefully lost time today) to try and go on the attack, potentially for a stage win.
A sprint finish can't be ruled out, although it's unlikely. But with riders such as Dorian Godon, Finn Fisher-Black (these two can be part of a breakaway too) and Albert Philipsen, certainly the race can to some degree be controlled as long as these teams are able to prevent a strong breakaway from going up the road.
But a breakaway is ultimately the likely scenario to chase a win here - a day where the uphill start allows for a strong group formation, the late climbs allow for attacks to succeed... Some men may not have freedom but certainly have the skillset such as Pablo Castrillo or Georg Steinhauser.
But further down the standings there are a few that will have freedom, and may find themselves in the right move such as Valentin Paret-Peintre, Clément Champoussin, Damiano Caruso, Andrew August, Marco Frigo, Nairo Quintana or Louis Vervaeke.
Prediction Tour de Romandie 2026 stage 3:
*** Marco Frigo, Pablo Castrillo, Valentin Paret-Peintre
** Albert Philipsen, Finn Fisher-Black, Tadej Pogacar
* Lenny Martínez, Dorian Godon, Jefferson Alveiro Cepeda, Andrew August, Louis Vervaeke
Pick: Marco Frigo
How: Solo win from the breakaway with an attack on the final climb.
Original: Rúben Silva