“There are many riders with an X marked on this stage" - Alberto Contador warns Giro d’Italia Stage 18 could become “very hard-fought” battle

Alberto Contador expects stage 18 of the 2026 Giro d’Italia to produce another fierce breakaway battle, with the former Grand Tour winner warning that the road to Pieve di Soligo could be far more complicated than its profile suggests.

After Michael Valgren won stage 17 from the breakaway in Andalo, the Giro now moves into a very different kind of day. Stage 18 runs from Fai della Paganella to Pieve di Soligo, with only two categorised climbs on the route, but the late Muro di Ca del Poggio gives the finale a sharp sting.

The climb, 1.1 kilometres at 12.3%, comes just 9.3 kilometres from the finish and could become the decisive point of the stage. It is short enough to tempt fast finishers and their teams, but hard enough to split a reduced group or launch a late attack if the breakaway survives.

Contador believes that tension could shape the entire day. “A new stage of the Giro d’Italia awaits us and it will be very lively, with 171 kilometres and a finish in Pieve di Soligo,” the Spanish Grand Tour icon said on Eurosport. “There are only two mountain difficulties, a third-category climb and a fourth-category climb close to the finish, as well as a sprint located quite a long way before the end.”

One of the biggest questions is whether Jhonatan Narvaez tries to make the break again. The UAE Team Emirates - XRG rider moved into the points jersey on stage 17 after taking maximum points at the intermediate sprint, even though he missed out on the stage win.

With Paul Magnier still close in the classification and the final stage in Rome likely to favour the sprinters, Narvaez may need to keep collecting points before the race reaches the capital. Stage 18 offers that possibility, but it also brings the risk of another costly fight to get up the road.

Contador expects that battle to be central to the stage. “We will see that fight over whether Narvaez gets into the breakaway or not, and for me it will be another day for the breakaway,” he said. “But a very hard-fought breakaway, because there are not really climbs as such and that could make some team with fast men try to control.”

That is where stage 18 becomes awkward to predict. It looks like a breakaway day, but it is not mountainous enough to automatically shut out the faster riders. Teams with quick finishers may see enough opportunity to keep the race within reach, especially if the move lacks cohesion or takes too long to settle.

The final 10 kilometres give the stage its edge. The Muro di Ca del Poggio is not long, but its gradient and position make it a natural launchpad for late attacks.

If the breakaway reaches that point with a workable gap, the climb could decide who has the legs to fight for victory. If the peloton is still close, it could instead become the point where the fast men are either protected or exposed.

Contador also expects a wide range of riders to have marked the stage as an opportunity. “There are many riders with an X marked on this stage, so there will be quite a lot of excitement between the fast men and the breakaway,” he said.

For Jonas Vingegaard and the GC contenders, the stage is unlikely to be about major attacks unless the race becomes unexpectedly chaotic. The Dane remains firmly in control of the maglia rosa, and with harder mountain stages still to come, Team Visma | Lease a Bike may again be happy to let the right move go.

For everyone else, stage 18 could be one of the last realistic chances before the Giro’s final mountain tests. Contador’s reading is clear: the profile may look manageable, but the fight to control it could be anything but.