“The unthinkable has happened” – Tadej Pogacar’s Liège-Bastogne-Liège script torn apart as early chaos stuns experts

Liège-Bastogne-Liège has been turned on its head before the race has even reached its decisive phase, with an extraordinary early scenario leaving pre-race expectations in tatters and forcing an entirely different tactical battle.

What unfolded in the opening hour bears little resemblance to the familiar pattern that has defined recent editions. A huge front group, numbering around 50 riders and featuring major contenders including Remco Evenepoel and Egan Bernal, forced a split that quickly grew beyond control. Behind, Pogacar and Paul Seixas were left on the wrong side of the divide, with the gap stretching out to around four minutes inside the first 80 kilometres.

The scale of the disruption has stunned even seasoned observers of the race. Brian Holm, now an expert with Eurosport, described the situation in stark terms. “This is a scenario no one had imagined. UAE are burning matches, and that could force Pogacar to go long. The unthinkable has happened.”

For Holm, the key issue is not just the size of the break, but how early and how completely it has reshaped the race. “I don’t remember seeing a similar situation in Liège. Because it happens so rarely, no one has planned for it.”

In the build-up to the race, the expectation across the peloton had been clear. Pogacar would wait, control would be established, and the race would be decided on the final sequence of climbs.

Holm revealed that this was the consensus among sports directors before the start. “They all said Pogacar would go on La Redoute.”

That script has now been torn apart. “Now Remco has ridden straight out of the schoolyard,” Holm added, pointing to the aggressive move that helped trigger the decisive early split.

The composition of the front group has made the situation particularly difficult to manage.

With riders from almost every major team represented, there is little incentive for cooperation behind. Teams that would normally contribute to controlling the race instead have riders up the road, leaving Pogacar’s UAE Team Emirates - XRG with limited support. Even with assistance from Decathlon CMA CGM Team, the task of bringing back such a large and powerful group remains significant.

At the same time, efforts to stabilise the gap have already come at a cost.

The consequence of that early chaos is that Liège-Bastogne-Liège is no longer following its expected trajectory. Rather than a controlled build towards La Redoute, the race has already split into distinct groups, with the outcome now dependent on how the situation evolves over a much longer period than usual.

For Pogacar, the challenge is no longer about executing a familiar plan, but adapting to a scenario few had even considered. And for those ahead, including Evenepoel, the opportunity is clear.

The race has opened far earlier than expected. And with it, the possibility that this Monument will be decided in a way no one had predicted.