“The big question now is whether Van der Poel is beatable” - Sean Kelly debates Milano-Sanremo focus of Tadej Pogacar

For all the talk around Tadej Pogacar and how he might finally win Milano-Sanremo, the race continues to revolve around a more stubborn reality. The Slovenian has already shown he can make the race selective. He has already proven he can arrive at the Poggio with only a handful of riders left. And yet, each time, the same problem remains. Mathieu van der Poel is still there.

That is the pattern that has defined recent editions, and it is the one that shapes the race again in 2026.

Speaking on TNT Sports, Sean Kelly pointed directly to that dynamic, arguing that the usual framing of the race misses the real issue. “The big question now is whether Van der Poel is beatable,” Kelly and TNT commentator Rob Hatch debate, shifting the emphasis away from Pogacar’s tactics and onto the rider who has repeatedly been able to follow them.

Pogacar does not need to prove he can animate Milano-Sanremo. That part has already been established.

His accelerations on the Cipressa and Poggio have turned what was once a sprinter-friendly Monument into a far more selective race, with last year’s edition the clearest example. The move on the Cipressa stripped the race down to its strongest riders, yet even then, it was not enough to create separation from Van der Poel.

That is why the question is no longer simply where Pogacar attacks, but whether those attacks can achieve anything more than reducing the group. As Kelly put it, “It’s going to be an interesting one for Pogacar… How does he beat Van der Poel and the rest?”

Part of the difficulty lies in timing. Pogacar arrives in strong condition, but so too does the rider he has been unable to distance. Van der Poel’s performances in recent weeks have only reinforced that sense of inevitability.

“I think we’re looking more at Tirreno-Adriatico this year because Van der Poel has been racing,” Hatch noted, with the Dutchman’s form described as “in excellent shape.” Pogacar, he added, is “also in excellent shape,” setting up a direct comparison rather than a clear hierarchy.

That balance is what makes the race so difficult to control. Pogacar can raise the level, but if Van der Poel can match it, the advantage quickly disappears.

Milano-Sanremo continues to compress its decisive moments into the final kilometres, leaving little margin for error. “It’s a long build-up, but what a final,” Kelly said, underlining the structure that has frustrated Pogacar in the past.

Everything comes down to the same point. “The Poggio… that’s where the big attack happens, where you see who has the legs.”

But even that is no guarantee. “Then you have the descent of the Poggio… Every year the suspense is just amazing.”

The nature of that sequence means that even a successful move on the climb can be undone before the finish, particularly against riders capable of recovering quickly and descending aggressively.

That is why, despite all the variations in tactics, the race keeps returning to the same scenario. If Pogacar goes early, Van der Poel follows. If the group is reduced, Van der Poel remains. And if they arrive together in the final kilometres, the balance begins to tilt.

Kelly summed up the uncertainty that sits over the race. “That is the question… and that’s one we’ll have to wait until Saturday.”

For Pogacar, the challenge is no longer simply to attack, but to solve a problem that has so far resisted every variation of his approach. And until that changes, Milano-Sanremo will continue to be shaped less by what he does, and more by whether the one rider who keeps following can finally be dropped.