“Pogacar is often a huge ally for Van der Poel” - Thijs Zonneveld warns Cipressa attack could play into Dutchman’s hands at Milano-Sanremo

The decisive move at Milano-Sanremo has increasingly shifted towards the Cipressa, but according to Thijs Zonneveld, that trend may actually favour Mathieu van der Poel more than Tadej Pogacar.

Analysing the likely race scenario on the In de Waaier podcast, Zonneveld suggested that Pogacar’s aggressive approach could unintentionally play directly into the hands of his biggest rival. “Pogacar is often a huge ally for Van der Poel, as long as he can follow.”

Pogacar has made a habit of turning Milano-Sanremo into a selective battle by attacking on the Cipressa, aiming to distance the pure sprinters before the race reaches the Poggio and the run into Sanremo.

However, Zonneveld believes the nature of the climb itself makes that plan difficult to execute against a rider like Van der Poel. “Absolute power is so important on the Cipressa, because it isn’t very steep.”

That characteristic creates a key advantage for riders able to sit on the wheel, reducing the effectiveness of sustained attacks and making it harder to create meaningful gaps. “It will be very difficult to get away from Van der Poel. Even if you manage it, he still has to survive the section afterwards.”

Crucially, Zonneveld does not expect Van der Poel to take any risks if Pogacar makes his move. “But Van der Poel is not going to take the risk of letting Pogacar ride away, of course, because he doesn’t want to depend on others.”

Rather than fearing Pogacar’s attack, Zonneveld argues the Dutchman may actually welcome it. “Let’s be honest: for Van der Poel, it’s also an ideal scenario. It’s perfect to get rid of the rest.”

If Pogacar succeeds in reducing the front group to only the strongest riders, Van der Poel could benefit from a cleaner finale without the uncertainty of a larger bunch. “He knows that if he’s good enough, he can go with him. This scenario is perfect for Van der Poel. He can play the finale exactly how he wants.”

For Zonneveld, the equation is simple. If Van der Poel can follow Pogacar over the Cipressa and Poggio, the balance of the race shifts. “He only has to follow Pogacar. I say ‘only’, but he has proven that he can do it.”

While much of the focus remains on the duel between Pogacar and Van der Poel, Zonneveld also expects Team Visma | Lease a Bike to play a significant role in the finale. “It could very well be that behind Van der Poel and Pogacar, you get a group with Van Aert, Brennan, Laporte and Jorgenson.”

Such a group would give the Dutch team multiple options heading into the closing kilometres, particularly if they can limit the gap before the Poggio. “That’s a very strong team, and I really think they will be positioned closer than last year heading into the Poggio.”

Even so, Zonneveld believes their chances may depend on how the race unfolds on the Cipressa. “Because in his current form, I don’t think Van Aert can follow on the Cipressa. Although he is better than I expected, he won’t be too far behind.”

That could leave Visma relying on numbers rather than outright strength to influence the outcome. “They mainly need to start the Cipressa at the front and stay as close as possible over the top. Then hope they can use each other.”

Whether Pogacar’s next attempt finally delivers victory remains to be seen, but if Zonneveld’s analysis proves correct, the Slovenian’s trademark aggression could once again create the exact scenario that allows Van der Poel to take control of the race.