“Remco could win the Tour in the right conditions. But to win against Pogacar…” – Sean Kelly’s Maillot Jaune verdict on Evenepoel after blockbuster transfer switch

Sean Kelly has offered one of the clearest, most grounded assessments yet of Remco Evenepoel’s prospects at the Tour de France, arguing that the Belgian can win the race in the coming years – but only once the sport’s two dominant forces loosen their grip.

Speaking in conversation with Velo, the Irish legend set out a long-term path for Evenepoel’s yellow jersey ambitions shortly after the 25-year-old completed his high-profile move to Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe.

And significantly, Kelly’s verdict arrives just days after Tadej Pogacar admitted he is “scared” that Evenepoel may improve further with his new set-up.

“It scares me that he would get better,” Pogacar said. “For Remco, the change could be good… it will be interesting if he can take another step. I hope not, because I think he is already quite strong and dominant.”

Kelly did not hesitate when asked whether Evenepoel has the ability to win the Tour one day. “I think Remco would win the Tour in the right conditions,” he told Velo. “And definitely if the two big ones are out of the way.”

Kelly sees no weakening in that commitment and believes the reigning world champion is operating on a different level altogether. “To win the Tour against Pogacar is hard to see now,” he said. “In the first mountain stages in the Tour we saw the way he just rode away. He put two minutes into Vingegaard and almost four minutes into the other guys… I think he is untouchable at the moment.”

Jonas Vingegaard also remains central to the equation, although Kelly notes the Dane’s age profile may nudge the balance over time. “I think if Remco improves a bit more he will definitely get closer to Vingegaard. And of course Vingegaard is older as well.”

Kelly’s optimism about Evenepoel’s long-term future is tied closely to his belief that the Belgian’s new team environment could elevate his ceiling. The Irishman emphasised that Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe appear fully committed to building their structure around Evenepoel despite the presence of leaders such as Primoz Roglic, Florian Lipowitz, Jai Hindley, Giulio Pellizzari and Dani Martinez.

“They definitely need to show to Remco that they are behind him,” Kelly said. “They are changing staff, they are doing everything for Evenepoel. Their expectation is that he can win the Tour in the next couple of years.”

But that transformation will take time. For 2026, Kelly does not see Evenepoel dethroning Pogacar: “If he continues at that level he had this year into next year, I dont see anyone challenging him to win the Tour.”

Kelly’s assessment ultimately positions Evenepoel as a future Tour contender rather than an immediate one: a rider whose day may come once Pogacar’s priorities evolve or Vingegaard’s peak begins to soften.

Until then, patience and continued progression are the essentials. As a roadmap for Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe’s new flagship signing, it is as clear and realistic as any analysis in the post-transfer fallout.