PREVIEW | Tour de France 2025 stage 10 - Visma-UAE battle could lead to stage of the year

The 2025 Tour de France will be the biggest and most important race of the season and will be taking place between the 5th and 27th of July. This is the sport's climax of the season and every year it delivers memorable action. We preview stage 10.

On Bastille day we have a stage featuring 4400 meters of climbing with seven categorized climbing and a constant roller-coaster. A day for the classics riders (if a breakaway is to succeed) but likely a GC fight as well, and a lot can happen here and there are plenty traps. Even if the GC riders resist the chaotic terrain, the final 3.3 kilometers average 8% and should see the contenders for overall victory stretch their legs.

This has everything to be a chaotic day but with such strong riders at the startlist, the fight for the yellow jersey wouldn't likely change over the riders that can get themselves in front. This is a day with tons of climbs, not of them overly long or difficult, but the fatigue will slowly build up throughout the hours before reaching the final ascent.

The penultimate climb of the day is 5 kilometers long at just over 6% and ends with 10 kilometers to go. A tough climb but the fight for positioning at the top will be very big certainly, as the descent is technical and leads directly to the base of the final ascent. This one won't be explosive, it's a straight line valley climb, but the 3.3 kilometers at 8% can still create some differences if it's attacked hard - and it can certainly be right from the base.

Much lower temperatures but the wind will continue to blow, coming from the west with moderate intensity. We should actually see a headwind in most of the climbs but I wouldn't expect it to nullify the action. On the final ascent, if felt, it will come as a crosswind. Overall not the weather that the teams looking to attack like I must say.

Visma - Big question of the day is how Visma will race. Soon we go into the mountains and the team won't be able to use Matteo Jorgenson to put pressure on Pogacar, which means this is their final opportunity. On stage 6 the Dutch team won a direct battle and got men in the breakaway, and grew chaos that UAE wanted to control. In this stage start they are likely to do the same and try to have several riders in front like Van Aert, Benoot... And they must try to use Matteo Jorgenson tactically, this is a good day for him and the team can take advantage of a strong group to build a gap over the peloton.

Jonas Vingegaard will stay in the peloton and will be tasked with keeping up with Pogacar in the final climb, whilst the rest of the team has to create a hard situation for a fragile UAE that has lost João Almeida. Visma have to take full opportunity whilst they can, and can take advantage of the rolling terrain and many breakaway opportunists that will want to be in front to create situational alliances.

Tadej Pogacar - UAE on the other side have to stay united in the first hour of the race and keep men with Pogacar. They will know Visma will attack, but as long as they can prevent Jorgenson from being in front, then they can do the race as they please realistically. The Emirati team is no stranger to spending long days in the head of the peloton so it will be a hard day but possible to control. As long as they can get Pogacar safely into the final climb as well, which is likely, they can even potentially gain time on the competition there.

GC Fight - The other GC riders will mostly try to save the day after a long week of racing and in what is the first day with serious climbs (although they won't be high mountains). I would say there's a good chance that riders like Ben Healy, Aurélien Paret-Peintre and Guillaume Martin will try to be in the break to try and climb up the GC (and in the Irishman, a chance at yellow) but aside from them, most riders will be in the wheels of Visma and UAE and then battle against each other.

If there is not much Pogacar-Vingegaard action on the final climb I wouldn't be surprised to see someone like Florian Lipowitz or Felix Gall hit the front, as they look incredibly strong thus far and 8th/14th doesn't reflect in any way what they're capable of doing in this Tour. Remco Evenepoel, Kévin Vauquelin and Oscar Onley are riders that are happy with their current positions; Primoz Roglic is unlikely to be riding with the very best at the moment; but someone like Mattias Skjelmose, Tobias Johannessen and Enric Mas are also well capable of being up there with the best until the end.

Breakaway - This is a climber's day, even though we are not in the mountains. Whatever happens, for a group to be in front and then survive to the finish you need riders who have a lot of endurance and serious climbing legs because the riders will enter the final kilometers very fatigued already and the final ascent is in no way explosive.

Romain Grégoire, Ben O'Connor, Neilson Powless, Valentin Madouas, Steff Cras, Alex Baudin, Quinn Simmons, Michael Storer, Alexey Lutsenko, Lenny Martínez and Harold Tejada are a few of the riders who in my opinion have a shot at victory.

*** Tadej Pogacar, Ben Healy
** Jonas Vingegaard, Romain Grégoire, Neilson Powless, Michael Storer
* Matteo Jorgenson, Remco Evenepoel, Kévin Vauquelin, Oscar Onley, Florian Lipowitz, Mattias Skjelmose, Felix Gall, Enric Mas, Aurélien Paret-Peintre, Alex Baudin, Lenny Martínez, Quinn Simmons, Alexey Lutsenko

Pick: Ben Healy

How: Breakaway victory. Yes again, for these kinds of stages there's very few riders who can keep up with him, so if he is in front a victory is likely.