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PREVIEW | Tour de France 2023 stage 16 - Decisive time-trial could turn the tide for yellow jersey battle between Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar
CyclingTuesday, 18 July 2023 at 14:10
Preview. The Alps have so far created very little differences between Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar. Stage 16 of the Tour de France will be the race's only time-trial and could be decisive.
The first day of the final week of the Tour de France and one which everyone has talked about. The only individual time-trial of the 2023 Tour de France, featuring only 22 kilometers in distance. Early on in the effort the riders will climb the Côte des Soudans (1.3Km; 8.8%) and descend back into the valley. The intermediate point will be at 6.5 kilometers, the descent will be fast and not really technical, high speeds will be reached.
Estimated start and finish times for Tour de France stage 16: 13:05-17:35CET
Stage 16 (ITT): Passy - Combloux, 22.4 kilometers
This will be a day for the GC riders once again, and the differences will be important. The riders will climb the Côte de Domancy (2.7Km; 8.9%) that finishes with only 3.5 kilometers away from the finish, and continue on an uphill drag into Combloux where they will meet the finish line. The climb in reality is 6.3 kilometers at 6.6%, the TT will suit the climbers and GC riders, with intermediate points at the base and top of Domancy.
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The Weather
Map Tour de France 2023 stage 16
Some wind from the west, which will see headwind in a slightly long false-flat downhill sector. However it'll stay same throughout the afternoon so it won't change anything. There is a chance of rain, which increases throughout the afternoon. This could prove important in the fight for the stage win, but simultaneously there is no technical descent where there would be big differences.
The Favourites
Tadej Pogacar - Pogacar doesn't have a single meaningful time-trial reference this year and he got his wrist injury which could on paper affect him, but let's be real. The injury didn't hamper his form at all, he reaches top form right away, don't expect anything but the best Pogacar against the clock. Here there is no wheel following, but still to take 10 seconds on Vingegaard it already be a very difficult task.
Jonas Vingegaard - Vingegaard is holding his own in the Alps, so far winning 1 second. Now against the clock, as was the case in these last two stages, I can't say one is more favoured than the other. I expect another completely balanced battle, perhaps only decided really by the pacing tactics, here yes they will not be easy and can make a difference.
Top10 fight - If the weather doesn't play out the fight for win is there, don't hope having other GC riders surprise. In that fight Carlos Rodríguez could be in trouble to keep his podium spot as Adam Yates has put on strong time-trials this year, 19 seconds may not be enough, the tide may change. No other spot should change or have any meaningful development.
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This is the Tour de France however. The list of time-trial specialists, despite the route which features no suited TT, is very big. Take Wout van Aert for example, he is climbing very well and he's yet to take the stage win he seeks. He will with no doubt aim for a win, he leads the list of riders too who could profit from the weather, since early departures could be favoured.
Stefan Küng, Rémi Cavagna and Mikkel Bjerg on their best day could try to hit hard, who knows they may succeed. Mattias Skjelmose showed on the Tour de Suisse that he's got the speed on the flat terrain, whilst of course he depends on his climbing legs to go for a strong result. Other outsiders would include Nelson Oliveira, Fred Wright, Kasper Asgreen, Pierre Latour, Ben O'Connor and Soren Waerenskjold.
Prediction Tour de France 2023 stage 16:
*** Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard
** Wout van Aert
* Adam Yates, Stefan Küng, Rémi Cavagna, Mattias Skjelmose
Pick: Jonas Vingegaard
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