PREVIEW | Tour de France 2023 stage 16 - Decisive time-trial could turn the tide for yellow jersey battle between Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar
Cycling
Preview. The Alps have so far created very little differences between Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar. Stage 16 of the Tour de France will be the race's only time-trial and could be decisive.
The first day of the final week of the Tour de France and one which everyone has talked about. The only individual time-trial of the 2023 Tour de France, featuring only 22 kilometers in distance. Early on in the effort the riders will climb the Côte des Soudans (1.3Km; 8.8%) and descend back into the valley. The intermediate point will be at 6.5 kilometers, the descent will be fast and not really technical, high speeds will be reached.
Estimated start and finish times for Tour de France stage 16: 13:05-17:35CET
Stage 16 (ITT): Passy - Combloux, 22.4 kilometers
This will be a day for the GC riders once again, and the differences will be important. The riders will climb the Côte de Domancy (2.7Km; 8.9%) that finishes with only 3.5 kilometers away from the finish, and continue on an uphill drag into Combloux where they will meet the finish line. The climb in reality is 6.3 kilometers at 6.6%, the TT will suit the climbers and GC riders, with intermediate points at the base and top of Domancy.
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The Weather
Map Tour de France 2023 stage 16
Some wind from the west, which will see headwind in a slightly long false-flat downhill sector. However it'll stay same throughout the afternoon so it won't change anything. There is a chance of rain, which increases throughout the afternoon. This could prove important in the fight for the stage win, but simultaneously there is no technical descent where there would be big differences.
The Favourites
Tadej Pogacar - Pogacar doesn't have a single meaningful time-trial reference this year and he got his wrist injury which could on paper affect him, but let's be real. The injury didn't hamper his form at all, he reaches top form right away, don't expect anything but the best Pogacar against the clock. Here there is no wheel following, but still to take 10 seconds on Vingegaard it already be a very difficult task.
Jonas Vingegaard - Vingegaard is holding his own in the Alps, so far winning 1 second. Now against the clock, as was the case in these last two stages, I can't say one is more favoured than the other. I expect another completely balanced battle, perhaps only decided really by the pacing tactics, here yes they will not be easy and can make a difference.
Top10 fight - If the weather doesn't play out the fight for win is there, don't hope having other GC riders surprise. In that fight Carlos Rodríguez could be in trouble to keep his podium spot as Adam Yates has put on strong time-trials this year, 19 seconds may not be enough, the tide may change. No other spot should change or have any meaningful development.
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This is the Tour de France however. The list of time-trial specialists, despite the route which features no suited TT, is very big. Take Wout van Aert for example, he is climbing very well and he's yet to take the stage win he seeks. He will with no doubt aim for a win, he leads the list of riders too who could profit from the weather, since early departures could be favoured.
Stefan Küng, Rémi Cavagna and Mikkel Bjerg on their best day could try to hit hard, who knows they may succeed. Mattias Skjelmose showed on the Tour de Suisse that he's got the speed on the flat terrain, whilst of course he depends on his climbing legs to go for a strong result. Other outsiders would include Nelson Oliveira, Fred Wright, Kasper Asgreen, Pierre Latour, Ben O'Connor and Soren Waerenskjold.
Prediction Tour de France 2023 stage 16:
*** Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard
** Wout van Aert
* Adam Yates, Stefan Küng, Rémi Cavagna, Mattias Skjelmose
** Wout van Aert
* Adam Yates, Stefan Küng, Rémi Cavagna, Mattias Skjelmose
Pick: Jonas Vingegaard
Rúben SilvaEditor-in-Chief
A founding contributor to CyclingUpToDate since its launch in January 2022, Ruben Silva has played a central role in shaping the site’s editorial direction and long-term growth. Before joining the project, he built his experience through independent blogging at Echelons Hub and by producing race previews for Ciclismo Internacional, developing a strong analytical voice rooted in daily engagement with professional cycling.
Beyond editorial work, he has been closely involved in the expansion and coordination of CyclingUpToDate’s wider network, helping establish and support sister platforms across multiple languages. This includes ongoing collaboration with CiclismoAlDia (Spanish), CiclismoAtual (Portuguese), WielrennenUpToDate (Dutch), and RadsportAktuell (German), contributing to a shared editorial vision and consistent international coverage.
He also helps oversee editorial governance across the network, setting standards for accuracy and consistency and coordinating updates or corrections when needed.
Originally from the Porto metropolitan area in Portugal, he holds a bachelor’s degree in Geography. His path into cycling journalism was shaped not through formal media training, but through independent reporting, community engagement, and sustained on-the-ground involvement in the sport.
Over the course of his career, he has conducted approximately 100 interviews across road cycling and cyclocross, ranging from one-to-one conversations and online formats to press conferences and on-site pre- and post-race coverage. His interviews include leading riders, team managers, and prominent figures within cycling media: Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, Joao Almeida and Tom Pidcock; managers like Patrick Lefevere and Joxean Matxin; and YouTube personality Bryan Kennedy (BKXC)...
Within 18 months of launch, he helped grow CyclingUpToDate’s English-language platform into one of the most-read cycling news websites, built entirely from the ground up. As both a professional journalist and lifelong cycling enthusiast, his focus remains on delivering accurate, timely, and well-contextualized coverage.
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- many people advise him to grow slowly and rather do giro and/or vuelta instead of tdf. but i can totally understand that he is not satisfied with taking over once pogi declines, but instead beat him in his prime. so if he goes for tdf again, i‘m all for it. let‘s hope that pogi recovers soon!Ketterechts07-11-2026
- So gracious to offer something no-one would be prepared to pay for. The Giro is not the Tour and doesn’t command the same interest or attract the same “elite” (those willing to pay to be a part of something they consider has ego boosting potential). Roadside viewing will always largely remain free for everyone outside circuits. Introduction of a symbolic entrance to mountain climbs is worthy of exploration. Asking 1-2€ isn’t going to repulse real fans (most will spend 50-100€ on their outing that day all things included) but will prevent a portion of the total knobhead thrillseekers who will join in any large gathering as long as it’s free, just because they’re attracted to crowds, without which it it difficult for them to work up their anti-social behaviour.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- How is radio going to help when someone went over a cliff or bridge or off the roadside into a forest unnoticed and is laying there unconscious?Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- Yep, next we’ll be accusing F1 drivers of avoiding Le Mans.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- But on what is that opinion based? Are you holding him to a different standard than others? Are you saying he should do learn to like something he doesn’t Are you saying he hasn’t achieved enough Are you saying he pretends to be better than his results? It’s actually a really strange opinion to oust if you consider it objectively or rationally. Try applying it to others or yourself by asking if not EVERYONE should then be doing more? Nobody in athletics or swimming gets criticism for not expanding their repertoire when a rival or someone else does. In fact, most who move to another event get accused of running from their rival. Opinions are boring, the reasons behind them are what count.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- for a medical chief to throw things like is just bad. There are already radios which were banned for spectacle. allow radios. Gps trackers are not a complete solutionabstractengineer07-11-2026
- Yeah man...PogiSloFans07-11-2026
- any rider less than 25 whether they are really ready for the position of leadership of GT is probably not the case. I think Pogi himself suffered when he was defeated by Jonas in the TDF twice. But that would be the team's job to ensure support so that they can bounce back. It requires a team and time to get back up and win after getting knocked down.abstractengineer07-11-2026
- I'm very glad he got the big late Quickstep Vuelta win and I hope he has a few left for Euskaltel-Euskadi.flyer07-11-2026
- My memories of Ivan Basso aren't good but I liked his sister Elisa ok.flyer07-11-2026
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