Paris-Nice is one of the most reputable and toughest stage-races in the World Tour calendar and every single year it hosts many of the world's best climbers, sprinters and classics riders. This year the race takes place from the 9th to 16th of March. We preview stage 4.
Stage 4 is the first day that features quite a bit of climbing. 2700 meters of climbing on the menu, doesn't make it a true mountain stage but you can't neglect it, and it will be the day where the riders will truly understand their form going uphill.
Stage 4: Vichy - La Loge des Gardes, 163.8 kilometers
Don't expect anything crazy before the last kilometers, all legs will be saved for the final ascent to La Loge des Gardes where the last time around it was Tadej Pogacar who won. An explosive ascent, but one where it's possible to make differences.
This climb will be 6.7 kilometers long at 7.1% average gradient. All-in-all a mostly constant climb without too many gradient shifts, but it will be hard right from the base. Attacks are expected in the final kilometers, because if a group goes into the final 1.5 kilometers there will be a small moment to rest there, and otherwise things could come down to a sprint.
The Weather
Map Paris-Nice 2025 stage 4
Maximum temperatures of 8 degrees on the day, no sun and a good chance of rain throughout the day. Typical Paris-Nice weather which will make it quite a difficult day and potentially make bigger differences than expected.
The Favourites
Visma - This is Visma's race to lose now. As expected, they moved into the lead after the TTT and with Matteo Jorgenson in a safe lead. The yellow jersey will do his own pace up this climb once it explodes whilst Jonas Vingegaard can respond to any attack. Likely, they will win this stage because they look to be the two strongest climbers in the race and the team know what to do. Vingegaard will certainly have freedom to attack and gain time on the rest as long as he has legs.
UAE - UAE were at the start the team I believed would be the closest rival to Visma but after today that's no longer the case. Pavel Sivakov is out of the run, and with over 40 seconds lost already they will rather try to finish as best as possible, instead of trying to fight for the GC win as they can end up losing time to other direct rivals in the fight for a podium. João Almeida, by all means, can definitely contest for the stage win. Brandon McNulty is always a wildcard, whilst Jhonatan Narváez will certainly try but likely the climb will be too long for him.
The cold day can lead to this climb doing more damage, however the field has plenty top climbers such as Santiago Buitrago who won the Volta a Comunitat Valenciana, Mattias Skjelmose who is on terrific form, a Felix Gall who had a positive TTT and is always ready to attack the climbs, Ben O'Connor who is first out of the GC riders behind the Visma riders and will likely have a more defensive tactic, and the BORA climbers Aleksandr Vlasov and Florian Lipowitz who sit 5th and 6th overall, a good position meaning they won't take too many risks but instead wait things out, likely.
In a 3rd row of favourites I would put in Quick-Step duo Ilan van Wilder and Max Schachmann; INEOS duo Thymen Arensman and Magnus Sheffield; Movistar trio of Jefferson Alveiro Cepeda, Iván Romeo and Pablo Castrillo; Lenny Martínez, Michael Storer, Guillaume Martin, Neilson Powless and Astana duo Harold Tejada and Clément Champoussin. Don't expect attacks from any of these riders, the pace will be very high and their task is to hang on for as long as possible and after the stage think if they want to pursue GC or instead chase a stage win.
Prediction Paris-Nice 2025 stage 4:
*** Jonas Vingegaard, Matteo Jorgenson
** João Almeida, Santiago Buitrago, Mattias Skjelmose, Felix Gall, Aleksandr Vlasov
* Jhonatan Narváez, Florian Lipowitz, Ilan van Wilder, Max Schachmann, Lenny Martínez, Pablo Castrillo, Michael Storer, Neilson Powless
** João Almeida, Santiago Buitrago, Mattias Skjelmose, Felix Gall, Aleksandr Vlasov
* Jhonatan Narváez, Florian Lipowitz, Ilan van Wilder, Max Schachmann, Lenny Martínez, Pablo Castrillo, Michael Storer, Neilson Powless
Pick: Jonas Vingegaard
How: Solo win and taking the yellow jersey.
Original: Rúben Silva
☀ Voici le parcours de #ParisNice 2025 !
— Paris-Nice (@ParisNice) December 17, 2024
☀Here is the route of #ParisNice 2025! pic.twitter.com/ynMCs4sVut
Rúben SilvaEditor-in-Chief
A founding contributor to CyclingUpToDate since its launch in January 2022, Ruben Silva has played a central role in shaping the site’s editorial direction and long-term growth. Before joining the project, he built his experience through independent blogging at Echelons Hub and by producing race previews for Ciclismo Internacional, developing a strong analytical voice rooted in daily engagement with professional cycling.
Beyond editorial work, he has been closely involved in the expansion and coordination of CyclingUpToDate’s wider network, helping establish and support sister platforms across multiple languages. This includes ongoing collaboration with CiclismoAlDia (Spanish), CiclismoAtual (Portuguese), WielrennenUpToDate (Dutch), and RadsportAktuell (German), contributing to a shared editorial vision and consistent international coverage.
He also helps oversee editorial governance across the network, setting standards for accuracy and consistency and coordinating updates or corrections when needed.
Originally from the Porto metropolitan area in Portugal, he holds a bachelor’s degree in Geography. His path into cycling journalism was shaped not through formal media training, but through independent reporting, community engagement, and sustained on-the-ground involvement in the sport.
Over the course of his career, he has conducted approximately 100 interviews across road cycling and cyclocross, ranging from one-to-one conversations and online formats to press conferences and on-site pre- and post-race coverage. His interviews include leading riders, team managers, and prominent figures within cycling media: Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, Joao Almeida and Tom Pidcock; managers like Patrick Lefevere and Joxean Matxin; and YouTube personality Bryan Kennedy (BKXC)...
Within 18 months of launch, he helped grow CyclingUpToDate’s English-language platform into one of the most-read cycling news websites, built entirely from the ground up. As both a professional journalist and lifelong cycling enthusiast, his focus remains on delivering accurate, timely, and well-contextualized coverage.
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MarkFour07-11-2026 - This is a really interesting idea, which, if well prepared could even be very successful. Very little money needs to be involved for a first season and any success could lead to rapid interest from sponsors.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
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