PREVIEW | Itzulia Basque Country 2024 stage 3 - Breakaway and unusual sprint both realistic scenarios for hilly day

Itzulia Basque Country is a very open race in it's days that can end with a sprint, that was the case today and it will also be the case on stage 3. A hilly day, it features a flat finale but an uphill start and hilly profile; a breakaway can certainly succeed and it can be a very interesting day. We preview the day ahead.

The third day of racing in Itzulia starts off right away with a climb in Ezpeleta which is 7.8 kilometers at 6%. This should be enough to establish a strong breakaway; but if not, three other categorized over the first 86 kilometers of the day should do the trick. Unlike most days in this race, the following section of the stage is actually rather flat.

But before the final in Altsasu however there will still be some tough challenges ahead. One ascent is 1.7 kilometers at 7.5% which summits with 37.4 kilometers to go; and then a second longer ascents ends with only 18.4 kilometers to go. This last one is 6.3 kilometers at 5.2%, not the toughest of ascents but it can certainly do some damage. And without a descent following, the fatigue can definitely make the difference into a sprint.

The finale then is mostly flat, the final corner takes place with 400 meters to go, and then the sprint to the line will still be in an uphill gradient.

The Weather

Some wind from the southwest. Not ideal for breakaway actually, quite the opposite. Early in the day this will be the case mostly, in the final ascent a relative tailwind but in the kilometers running up to the finish line - before the final corner - a headwind awaits the riders too. More chances of a sprint working out.

The Favourites

This is a day where anything can happen. A sprint? Breakaway? Late attack? Today's stage revealed even further that the list of contenders is off the charts, because there simply is such a lack of dominant figures, and the profile makes it very open. Today's sprint took place without almost any sprinter, but not between climber. A mix of classics riders, climbers, rouleurs, etc.

We've got a flat finale where a sprint is still quite possible, with the likes of Alex Aranburu, Ethan Hayter, Vito Braet and Davide de Pretto as fast finishers who can climb. But the list expands so wide, and varies depending on what happens on the day.

Add William Lecerf Junior, Kévin Vauquelin, Mattias Skjelmose, Pello Bilbao, Samuele Battistella, ide Schelling, Quinten Hermans, Orluis Aular, Stefano Oldani and today's surprise winner Paul Lapeira who is in terrific form and could be fighting for a fourth win in a very short space of time.

A lot of the riders above may mark their presence in a breakaway, but also a late attack. It simply is that open, and with an uphill start there are high chances that a group strong enough will go up the road and won't be brought back. This can feature many types of riders, and it can include riders who are distant or close in the GC fight as I doubt BORA - hansgrohe will really burn themselves to keep the jersey at this point in the race.

Honestly, the list could go far and wide, but I've got a few riders who I'd pay special attention to:

Movistar: Gonzalo Serrano and Davide Formolo

BORA: Max Schachmann and Matteo Sobrero

EF: Archie Ryan

Arkea: Clément Champoussin

Jayco: Felix Engelhardt

Lidl-Trek: Natnael Tesfatsion

Groupama: Romain Grégoire and Quentin Pacher

Bahrain: Jasha Sutterlin

TotalEnergies: Mathieu Burgaudeau

AG2R: Nans Peters

Alpecin: Nicola Conci

Q36.5: Xabier Mikel Azparren

Prediction Itzulia Basque Country 2024 stage 3:

*** Paul Lapeira, Alex Aranburu
** Samuele Battistella, Ethan Hayter, Davide De Pretto
* Vito Braet, Ide Schelling, Quinten Hermans, Orluis Aular, Gonzalo Serrano, Felix Engelhardt, Natnael Tesfatsion, Romain Grégoire

Pick: Davide de Pretto