PREVIEW & FAVOURITES | Vuelta a España 2025 stage 11 - Can the Basque Country's steep climbs crack Vingegaard?

Stage 11 of the Vuelta a Espana on Wednesday, the 3rd of September, is going to be a tough day and one of it's kind in this year's race. There will be numerous short and steep climbs, presenting a different challenge for Jonas Vingegaard, who has thus far not shown any weakness. Stage 11 will start at 13:30 CET and we expect the finish around 17:20 in Bilbao.

Explosive terrain once more, the riders start and finish stage 11 in Bilbao where they will tackle plenty short but steep ascents. It's something that is not unusual in the Vuelta a España, but will be the first and only stage in this race where the riders really tackle this type of ascent and yes, it can create significant differences. Besides all of the climbing (3000 meters of ascent in total), the descents are often technical, the roads narrow, and the weather unpredictable.

Right from the first kilometers we have quite a lot of uphill terrain and roads where the peloton can explode, but equally, a strong breakaway can be formed. The opening 26 kilometers of the stage are very dangerous and no-one can lose their attention.

The peloton then go up five categorized climbs, all of them short and most of them quite steep. The crucial ones are the final three, the first of which ending with 53 kilometers to go with 4.3 kilometers at 7.9%. This is the Alto de Vivero, which will be tackled on two occasions and is quite an explosive ascent. The two descents from it will be different, but perhaps a lot of riders will wait for the final climb and not risk it all with an early attack.

This is almost the exact same finale as the 2023 Tour de France's first stage, featuring Vivero and the Alto de Pike. The second of the climbs is 2.1 kilometers long at over 9% but the second half is incredibly steep and the gradients go up to a whole 20%. A proper climb, pure anaerobic effort, where differences can be made. The climb summits with 8 kilometers to go before the downhill finish.

A day with lots of direction changes with the wind, but in such rugged terrain it'll rarely be felt. It is very unlikely that rain will fall during the day, so we may have a calm day weather wise.

GC Fight - Jonas Vingegaard is back in the race lead and according to his words, Visma may not want to let anyone get the jersey anymore from now on. Regardless, it won't make much of a difference, because ultimately we have the two queen stages already within a couple days. Visma won't work to try and keep the jersey if we have an outsider making his way to the break, but due to the large amount of climbs and tricky descents, the pace will be high in the peloton all day long and this is a day where you can make differences.

The final climb is very steep, but also long enough to have an impact and close enough to the finish to then keep going. It is very possible that Vingegaard may want to attack if he sees João Almeida is struggling with the explosive terrain, quite the possibility. Tom Pidcock in his current form could well also want to make moves, to try and build a buffer on his provisional podium spot, but also try and move up Almeida's position - the final descent could also be used for that. Giulio Ciccone could possibly handle this terrain better, although the Italian does seem to be fading in form. Felix Gall, Jai Hindley, Giulio Pellizzari, Matthew Riccitello, Egan Bernal and the Visma riders should be up there amongst the very best.

The question is whether the breakaway will succeed or not. It might well, because the start is quite hard and so the strong climbers may go up the road. UAE have Juan Ayuso and I would argue Marc Soler will want to make moves - he is close enough on GC to create tension, and on Angliru he will lose a lot of time and not be any weapon to put pressure on Visma anymore.

Virtually anyone outside the Top11 is a breakaway candidate, this is the Vuelta and Vingegaard will not care even if strong riders like Lorenzo Fortunato or William Lecerf Junior go on and try to take time, or even jump into the race lead. Ben O'Connor, Harold Martín López, Harold Tejada, Jefferson Alveiro Cepeda, Santiago Buitrago, Mikel Landa, Marco Frigo, Wout Poels, Pablo Castrillo, Javier Romo, Archie Ryan, Victor Langellotti, Nicola Conci, Andrea Bagioli and Michal Kwiatkowski are amongst the potential contenders. This is a day for the climbers, but depending on how it's raced, a few classics riders may also survive and fight for the win.

*** Jonas Vingegaard, Tom Pidcock
** João Almeida, Ben O'Connor, Marco Frigo
* Giulio Ciccone, Matthew Riccitello, Felix Gall, Jai Hindley, Giulio Pellizzari, Lorenzo Fortunato, William Lecerf Junior, Harold Tejada, Ben O'Connor, Pablo Cstrillo, Victor Langellotti, Andrea Bagioli, Michal Kwiatkowski

Pick: Andrea Bagioli

How: Breakaway win.